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AND-AND VS. EITHER-OR: ARMENIA SAYS EU FREE TRADE AREA, CUSTOMS UNION NOT A DILEMMA YET
ANALYSIS | 28.06.13 | 11:59
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Armenia does not yet aim to join the European Union, the matter
concerns only a Free Trade Area with the EU, said Armenia's Deputy
Minister of Foreign Affairs Shavarsh Kocharyan on Thursday. He also
added that Armenia does not aspire to become a member of the Customs
Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan either.
The question 'and-and' or 'either-or' has become central to Armenia,
and Yerevan clearly prefers equidistant cooperation with Russia and
Europe for now. However, more frequently statements are heard from the
West about the need to make a choice along the 'either-or' lines. This
was, in particular, said during the visit of Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan to Poland by president of this country Bronislaw Komorowski.
The Polish leader said that "it is impossible to operate simultaneously
on two different economic squares."
While visiting Armenia at the beginning of this year Georgia's Prime
Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said in one of media interviews that he
good-naturedly envied the ability of Armenia to follow the path to
the West while also maintaining good relations with Russia. But it
can hardly be regarded as Sargsyan's political know-how or a sign of
wise caution. Rather, it is a necessitated strategy, a sign of weak
positions and lack of determination.
In December 2011, when plans for signing an agreement on the
establishment of a Free Trade Area between Armenia and the EU were
announced, Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan, while attending
a minor forum in St. Petersburg, unexpectedly signed an agreement
on Armenia's joining the CIS free trade zone. It caused a strong
reaction in Armenia. After that, it became clear that Moscow will
do everything possible to torpedo agreements between post-Soviet
countries and the EU.
Azerbaijan and Belarus have already been left out of the EU Eastern
Partnership process. Moldova recently announced that the negotiations
on the Association Agreement with the EU had been completed and it
only remained to sign it. But Russia currently inspires protests in
Moldova over Transdniestria and Gagauzia, where ideas about joining
the Eurasian Union are being voiced more articulately now.
There is also an ambiguous situation in Ukraine, which has nearly
completed preparations for the Association. The Ukrainian opposition
which has ties with Russia has once again blocked the work of the
local parliament, which means that Ukraine may not be able to adopt
the last required documents by the November deadline.
So far only Georgia has expressed an unequivocal position as this
is the only country among the six originally engaged for Eastern
Partnership where a referendum on the choice of the foreign-policy
course was held. The Georgian people spoke in favor of EU and NATO
memberships. And recently this position was also confirmed by Georgia's
prime minister.
And Armenia in this situation may prove a decisive player that, using
soccer terminology, will manage to score a goal. The question is for
which side Armenia will play. If Russia manages to force Armenia to
abandon its European course, the whole Eastern Partnership may break
down. And conversely, Armenia's firmness may lead to agreements being
signed in November.
The Gallup International Association's Armenian affiliate recently
conducted an opinion poll according to which 61 percent of respondents
in Armenia spoke in favor of deeper ties with Russia. The same
organization conducted a similar survey in 2011 showing the level of
support for ties with Russia at 75 percent. And in 2009, according
to surveys, more than 90 percent of respondents in Armenia were
pro-Russian. This means that in Armenia fewer and fewer people see
their future in the revived Soviet Union, which Russian President
Vladimir Putin is trying to make a reality.
ANALYSIS | 28.06.13 | 11:59
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Armenia does not yet aim to join the European Union, the matter
concerns only a Free Trade Area with the EU, said Armenia's Deputy
Minister of Foreign Affairs Shavarsh Kocharyan on Thursday. He also
added that Armenia does not aspire to become a member of the Customs
Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan either.
The question 'and-and' or 'either-or' has become central to Armenia,
and Yerevan clearly prefers equidistant cooperation with Russia and
Europe for now. However, more frequently statements are heard from the
West about the need to make a choice along the 'either-or' lines. This
was, in particular, said during the visit of Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan to Poland by president of this country Bronislaw Komorowski.
The Polish leader said that "it is impossible to operate simultaneously
on two different economic squares."
While visiting Armenia at the beginning of this year Georgia's Prime
Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili said in one of media interviews that he
good-naturedly envied the ability of Armenia to follow the path to
the West while also maintaining good relations with Russia. But it
can hardly be regarded as Sargsyan's political know-how or a sign of
wise caution. Rather, it is a necessitated strategy, a sign of weak
positions and lack of determination.
In December 2011, when plans for signing an agreement on the
establishment of a Free Trade Area between Armenia and the EU were
announced, Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan, while attending
a minor forum in St. Petersburg, unexpectedly signed an agreement
on Armenia's joining the CIS free trade zone. It caused a strong
reaction in Armenia. After that, it became clear that Moscow will
do everything possible to torpedo agreements between post-Soviet
countries and the EU.
Azerbaijan and Belarus have already been left out of the EU Eastern
Partnership process. Moldova recently announced that the negotiations
on the Association Agreement with the EU had been completed and it
only remained to sign it. But Russia currently inspires protests in
Moldova over Transdniestria and Gagauzia, where ideas about joining
the Eurasian Union are being voiced more articulately now.
There is also an ambiguous situation in Ukraine, which has nearly
completed preparations for the Association. The Ukrainian opposition
which has ties with Russia has once again blocked the work of the
local parliament, which means that Ukraine may not be able to adopt
the last required documents by the November deadline.
So far only Georgia has expressed an unequivocal position as this
is the only country among the six originally engaged for Eastern
Partnership where a referendum on the choice of the foreign-policy
course was held. The Georgian people spoke in favor of EU and NATO
memberships. And recently this position was also confirmed by Georgia's
prime minister.
And Armenia in this situation may prove a decisive player that, using
soccer terminology, will manage to score a goal. The question is for
which side Armenia will play. If Russia manages to force Armenia to
abandon its European course, the whole Eastern Partnership may break
down. And conversely, Armenia's firmness may lead to agreements being
signed in November.
The Gallup International Association's Armenian affiliate recently
conducted an opinion poll according to which 61 percent of respondents
in Armenia spoke in favor of deeper ties with Russia. The same
organization conducted a similar survey in 2011 showing the level of
support for ties with Russia at 75 percent. And in 2009, according
to surveys, more than 90 percent of respondents in Armenia were
pro-Russian. This means that in Armenia fewer and fewer people see
their future in the revived Soviet Union, which Russian President
Vladimir Putin is trying to make a reality.