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Do Russians Want A War?

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  • Do Russians Want A War?

    DO RUSSIANS WANT A WAR?

    To keep it short, yes, they want it everywhere. After long thoughts
    the Russian politicians have arrived at the conclusion that there is
    no need to fear a war if someone else is fighting. The war in Libya
    demonstrated that any empire will become an outsider in international
    politics if it settles down. The war in Syria was a chance for Russia
    to become a more important subject in global politics, not return of
    the Near East (it will not succeed).

    Whether the Russians understand this or not, their success in Syria is
    determined by the high level of interest of Americans and Europeans
    in Russia's participation in this regional game where Russia acts as
    Syria's defender while the West is categorically against the military
    intervention in this country.

    There is a paradox in this situation but this situation is encountered
    often, especially in regional politics. However, one way or another,
    the war in Syria was wanted by and riskless for Russia. By the way,
    Russia bid for more in its action in Syria than Syria, including
    hopes for reconciliation with Iran but one can already confirm that
    the Russian policy on Iran has crashed. Defense of Syria by Russia
    did not impress the Iranians who do not need Russian technologies
    unlike 10 or 20 years ago, Iran has other partners, and Iran's chief
    partner in future will be the United States.

    However, now the South Caucasus is concerned, not Syria. A lot that
    is happening in the South Caucasus, including the military supplies of
    Russia to the countries of the region, can be explained by the absolute
    interest of Russia in a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. If
    earlier the main factor of presence of interest of Russia in war was
    possible deployment of NATO troops in the region, the examples of Libya
    and Syria proved that NATO is not interested in such actions whereas
    its member states will not do it without the official decision of NATO.

    By the way, like in regard to Syria, NATO will limit its actions,
    including due to reluctance to take part in this operation of Turkey.

    NATO reckons similarly regarding operations in the South Caucasus.

    What will war in the South Caucasus bring to Russia? First, there
    will be a serious limitation to cooperation between NATO and the
    countries of the region. Most probably, hopes for failure of certain
    energy and communication projects.

    Perhaps, Russia is hoping for limitation of the time and scale of this
    war but is more than doubtful. It is also doubtful that NATO will not
    come to the region because the South Caucasus is not Syria but an
    absolutely different cluster of international political space. The
    United States and Europe have never viewed the South Caucasus as
    part of the Near East, and recent tendencies confirm the intentions
    of the West relating to the region.

    Russia is having no problems with initiation of a war between Armenia
    and Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev's team sees the war as salvation of its
    political, administrative and economic situation. There might be an
    agreement between Russia and Turkey over this war with Israel taking
    particular interest in it which still hopes that the war will affect
    Iran as well.

    In Armenia the Russian proteges have mobilized a miserable group of
    political scientists who understand that nobody will pick up such
    streetwalkers in Yerevan except the Russians who will dump them in
    the street. However, the Russians do not care for public opinion
    in Armenia. It is considered that the beginning of the war will not
    depend on the wish of Armenia.

    Igor Muradyan 15:30 03/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30351

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