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NO CHANGE IN POLICY ON TURKEY
Probably, during the upcoming days the national conference of Kurds
will be held. The initiative has been supported by several dozens of
influential Kurdish forces. Most probably, the conference will mark
activation of the Kurdish issue on an international level, especially
that recently the expert community of geopolitical centers has been
speaking about the prospects of establishment of the Kurdish state
more frequently.
In the context of activation of the Kurdish issue the Armenian-Turkish
issue becomes topical. Now it is frozen. Things have gone so far
that Armenia is speaking about putting forth claims to Turkey for
compensation on an official level. Not just a member of parliament
or a party leader but the prosecutor general of the country made
this statement. Turkey certainly responded that these statements
are frivolous statements but, no doubt, one can imagine how hard the
situation of Ankara is. The point is not that Armenia may put forth
claims. The problem is that the claims may shift to the international
political mainstream. It is already going to be tough.
The deputy minister of foreign affairs Shavarsh Kocharyan stated
in an interview with news.am that Turkey is not committed to the
Armenian-Turkish protocols and continued to support Azerbaijan's
anti-Armenian policy, while Armenia remains committed to normalization
with Turkey without preconditions. Shavarsh Kocharyan reminds that
the ball is in Turkey's field.
Apparently, official Yerevan thus reiterates that its policy has not
undergone any change, while the claims voiced at the level of the
prosecutor general have nothing to do with the state policy. At the
same time, there is a hint in the whole of messages voiced by Armenia
in which case Armenia will withdraw its claims.
In this sense, Armenia has found itself in a situation when there is
nothing to lose. The worst thing that Turkey will do in response to
Armenia's claims will be military aggression because it has already
imposed economic blockade. However, it is related to a number of
other factors, and Turkey is in a situation that it would do it if
it could even without any claims of Armenia, and if it could not,
it would not do it even if Armenia put forth its claims.
However, as the Kurdish issue is activated, Armenian claims are
at least extra bugbear for Turkey, especially ahead of the 100th
anniversary of the genocide. It is possible that the word bugbear is
too soft for this case. Will it force Ankara to take steps towards
Armenian-Turkish normalization?
Obviously, Ankara is kept back by several factors - the Turkish
government treats every step it takes as a sign of weakness, retreat
from dignity. And this is an influential factor for Turkey which
has regional ambitions. On the other hand, Ankara is kept back by
Azerbaijan.
However, the situation is getting closer to a line where it is getting
more and more difficult for Turkey to maneuver not to become the
victim of international processes, on the one hand, and on the other
hand, not to ignore Azerbaijan in the context of Armenian-Turkish
relations. Furthermore, Russia is building its relations with
Azerbaijan not through Turkey but above Turkey's head. On the whole,
Baku controls Ankara's actions towards a third country by way of
handling skillfully the "little brother's" wile but it does not seem
to be accountable to Turkey on its actions with another third country.
Apparently, Ankara is gradually coming closer to the point of choice
- the Armenian-Turkish relations are either a lifebelt or a loop on
the neck.
In fact, Ankara's choice will not be heavenly manna for Yerevan but
a serious challenge because Turkey's weight is big and the Armenian
lifebelt may sink together with Turkey or the Armenian rope on the
neck of Ankara may be ripped.
The ball is in the field of Turkey but over this period Armenia has
not done anything significant to be stronger than during the football
diplomacy when the ball appears on our field.
James Hakobyan 18:51 24/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/30540
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Probably, during the upcoming days the national conference of Kurds
will be held. The initiative has been supported by several dozens of
influential Kurdish forces. Most probably, the conference will mark
activation of the Kurdish issue on an international level, especially
that recently the expert community of geopolitical centers has been
speaking about the prospects of establishment of the Kurdish state
more frequently.
In the context of activation of the Kurdish issue the Armenian-Turkish
issue becomes topical. Now it is frozen. Things have gone so far
that Armenia is speaking about putting forth claims to Turkey for
compensation on an official level. Not just a member of parliament
or a party leader but the prosecutor general of the country made
this statement. Turkey certainly responded that these statements
are frivolous statements but, no doubt, one can imagine how hard the
situation of Ankara is. The point is not that Armenia may put forth
claims. The problem is that the claims may shift to the international
political mainstream. It is already going to be tough.
The deputy minister of foreign affairs Shavarsh Kocharyan stated
in an interview with news.am that Turkey is not committed to the
Armenian-Turkish protocols and continued to support Azerbaijan's
anti-Armenian policy, while Armenia remains committed to normalization
with Turkey without preconditions. Shavarsh Kocharyan reminds that
the ball is in Turkey's field.
Apparently, official Yerevan thus reiterates that its policy has not
undergone any change, while the claims voiced at the level of the
prosecutor general have nothing to do with the state policy. At the
same time, there is a hint in the whole of messages voiced by Armenia
in which case Armenia will withdraw its claims.
In this sense, Armenia has found itself in a situation when there is
nothing to lose. The worst thing that Turkey will do in response to
Armenia's claims will be military aggression because it has already
imposed economic blockade. However, it is related to a number of
other factors, and Turkey is in a situation that it would do it if
it could even without any claims of Armenia, and if it could not,
it would not do it even if Armenia put forth its claims.
However, as the Kurdish issue is activated, Armenian claims are
at least extra bugbear for Turkey, especially ahead of the 100th
anniversary of the genocide. It is possible that the word bugbear is
too soft for this case. Will it force Ankara to take steps towards
Armenian-Turkish normalization?
Obviously, Ankara is kept back by several factors - the Turkish
government treats every step it takes as a sign of weakness, retreat
from dignity. And this is an influential factor for Turkey which
has regional ambitions. On the other hand, Ankara is kept back by
Azerbaijan.
However, the situation is getting closer to a line where it is getting
more and more difficult for Turkey to maneuver not to become the
victim of international processes, on the one hand, and on the other
hand, not to ignore Azerbaijan in the context of Armenian-Turkish
relations. Furthermore, Russia is building its relations with
Azerbaijan not through Turkey but above Turkey's head. On the whole,
Baku controls Ankara's actions towards a third country by way of
handling skillfully the "little brother's" wile but it does not seem
to be accountable to Turkey on its actions with another third country.
Apparently, Ankara is gradually coming closer to the point of choice
- the Armenian-Turkish relations are either a lifebelt or a loop on
the neck.
In fact, Ankara's choice will not be heavenly manna for Yerevan but
a serious challenge because Turkey's weight is big and the Armenian
lifebelt may sink together with Turkey or the Armenian rope on the
neck of Ankara may be ripped.
The ball is in the field of Turkey but over this period Armenia has
not done anything significant to be stronger than during the football
diplomacy when the ball appears on our field.
James Hakobyan 18:51 24/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/politics/view/30540
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress