Tweet
NO, RUSSIA ISN'T ABOUT TO "LOSE" ARMENIA
The American Conservative
Aug 6 2013
By Daniel Larison ~U August 6, 2013, 11:13 AM
Walter Russell Mead wonders if Armenia will alter its security
relationship with Russia:
This festering tension has important geopolitical implications not
just for Armenia and Russia but also for Iran. Tehran has been making
overtures toward Yerevan recently, offering to expand economic and
security ties. But if Armenia chooses to turn instead toward the EU
and the West, and away from Iran and Russia, Iran might find itself
more isolated than it already is.
This isn't going to happen, but it's still worth considering why it
won't. First, the Armenian government has no desire to rupture its
relationship with Moscow, and Armenia needs Russia as a patron far
more than Russia needs Armenia. Supposing that the Armenian government
wanted to end its post-Cold War security relationship with Russia, how
would it "turn" to the West? One of many reasons that Armenia remained
in Russia's orbit for the last two decades is that the U.S. mostly
ignored Armenia and aligned itself with Armenia's Turkish and Azeri
neighbors after the Karabakh war. Russia and Iran have maintained
good relations with Armenia for decades, and have prevented the
country from being economically isolated, so what incentive would
Armenia have to downgrade those relationships and seek closer ties
with states that pay much more attention to Turkey and Azerbaijan?
Even if Armenia successfully joins the EU, which will presumably be
a very long process in any case, it certainly isn't going to become
part of NATO. Armenia wouldn't be able to join the alliance while
the dispute over Karabakh remains unresolved, and there's no evidence
that Armenians in or out of government want to do this. Joshua Kucera
summed things up last year in a report on Armenia's relations with
NATO and Russia:
It's just understood that Armenia's ties with Russia are so strong
[bold mine-DL] that a few U.S./NATO cooperation programs here and
there aren't going to make any difference.
As angry as the Armenian public may be at the moment, most Armenians
want to maintain good relations with Russia, a majority favors joining
Russia's customs union, and as of 2011 75% of Armenians approved of
the performance of Russia's leadership. This is not a country that
Russia is likely to "lose" anytime in the near future.
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/no-russia-isnt-about-to-lose-armenia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=no-russia-isnt-about-to-lose-armenia
The American Conservative
Aug 6 2013
By Daniel Larison ~U August 6, 2013, 11:13 AM
Walter Russell Mead wonders if Armenia will alter its security
relationship with Russia:
This festering tension has important geopolitical implications not
just for Armenia and Russia but also for Iran. Tehran has been making
overtures toward Yerevan recently, offering to expand economic and
security ties. But if Armenia chooses to turn instead toward the EU
and the West, and away from Iran and Russia, Iran might find itself
more isolated than it already is.
This isn't going to happen, but it's still worth considering why it
won't. First, the Armenian government has no desire to rupture its
relationship with Moscow, and Armenia needs Russia as a patron far
more than Russia needs Armenia. Supposing that the Armenian government
wanted to end its post-Cold War security relationship with Russia, how
would it "turn" to the West? One of many reasons that Armenia remained
in Russia's orbit for the last two decades is that the U.S. mostly
ignored Armenia and aligned itself with Armenia's Turkish and Azeri
neighbors after the Karabakh war. Russia and Iran have maintained
good relations with Armenia for decades, and have prevented the
country from being economically isolated, so what incentive would
Armenia have to downgrade those relationships and seek closer ties
with states that pay much more attention to Turkey and Azerbaijan?
Even if Armenia successfully joins the EU, which will presumably be
a very long process in any case, it certainly isn't going to become
part of NATO. Armenia wouldn't be able to join the alliance while
the dispute over Karabakh remains unresolved, and there's no evidence
that Armenians in or out of government want to do this. Joshua Kucera
summed things up last year in a report on Armenia's relations with
NATO and Russia:
It's just understood that Armenia's ties with Russia are so strong
[bold mine-DL] that a few U.S./NATO cooperation programs here and
there aren't going to make any difference.
As angry as the Armenian public may be at the moment, most Armenians
want to maintain good relations with Russia, a majority favors joining
Russia's customs union, and as of 2011 75% of Armenians approved of
the performance of Russia's leadership. This is not a country that
Russia is likely to "lose" anytime in the near future.
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/no-russia-isnt-about-to-lose-armenia/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=no-russia-isnt-about-to-lose-armenia