Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

No, Russia Isn't About To 'Lose' Armenia

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • No, Russia Isn't About To 'Lose' Armenia

    NO, RUSSIA ISN'T ABOUT TO 'LOSE' ARMENIA

    16:26 07.08.13

    Below is an article by Daniel Larison posted by The American
    Conservative

    Walter Russell Mead wonders if Armenia will alter its security
    relationship with Russia:

    This festering tension has important geopolitical implications not
    just for Armenia and Russia but also for Iran. Tehran has been making
    overtures toward Yerevan recently, offering to expand economic and
    security ties. But if Armenia chooses to turn instead toward the EU
    and the West, and away from Iran and Russia, Iran might find itself
    more isolated than it already is.

    This isn't going to happen, but it's still worth considering why it
    won't. First, the Armenian government has no desire to rupture its
    relationship with Moscow, and Armenia needs Russia as a patron far
    more than Russia needs Armenia. Supposing that the Armenian government
    wanted to end its post-Cold War security relationship with Russia, how
    would it "turn" to the West? One of many reasons that Armenia remained
    in Russia's orbit for the last two decades is that the U.S. mostly
    ignored Armenia and aligned itself with Armenia's Turkish and Azeri
    neighbors after the Karabakh war. Russia and Iran have maintained
    good relations with Armenia for decades, and have prevented the
    country from being economically isolated, so what incentive would
    Armenia have to downgrade those relationships and seek closer ties
    with states that pay much more attention to Turkey and Azerbaijan?

    Even if Armenia successfully joins the EU, which will presumably be
    a very long process in any case, it certainly isn't going to become
    part of NATO. Armenia wouldn't be able to join the alliance while
    the dispute over Karabakh remains unresolved, and there's no evidence
    that Armenians in or out of government want to do this. Joshua Kucera
    summed things up last year in a report on Armenia's relations with
    NATO and Russia:

    It's just understood that Armenia's ties with Russia are so strong
    [bold mine-DL] that a few U.S./NATO cooperation programs here and
    there aren't going to make any difference.

    As angry as the Armenian public may be at the moment, most Armenians
    want to maintain good relations with Russia, a majority favors joining
    Russia's customs union, and as of 2011 75% of Armenians approved of
    the performance of Russia's leadership. This is not a country that
    Russia is likely to "lose" anytime in the near future.

    Armenian News - Tert.am

Working...
X