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WHY HAS PUTIN CHOSEN TO VISIT BAKU? - ARMENIAN ANALYST ON RUSSIAN LEADER'S UPCOMING TOUR
13:02 13.08.13
In an interview with Tert.am, the political analyst Alexander
Iskandaryan has talked of Russian President Vladimir Putin's scheduled
trip to Baku. The expert has explained the reasons behind the Russian
leader's choice of country and the timing of the visit. He also
addresses the upcoming presidential election in Azerbaijan.
Mr. Iskandaryan, why do you think Vladimir Putin has chosen Azerbaijan
as his first visit destination since being elected a president?
Notably enough, the visit is quite impressive in terms of the Russian
flotilla's presence and the accompaniment of a big delegation.
Vladimir Putin is visiting Azerbaijan en route to Iran. As for the
context, Rosneft director Mr [Igor] Sechin was in Azerbaijan quite
recently, and the possibilities of working in Azerbaijan were very
probably discussed [in the course of the visit].
As the delegation includes the chief negotiator on the
Russian-Azerbaijani affairs, representatives of the Russian Ministry
of Emergency Situations, the Transport Ministry and the Ministry
of Defense, wide-profile agreements are going to be discussed. It's
quite possible that the reported orders for acquiring flotilla will
be realized. It is necessary to keep in mind that the military base
on the Turkmenbashi port - the opposite side of the Caspian Sea -
will be completed in 2015.
In more general terms, there are two reasons making the visit
necessary, especially now. The first, as I said, is the trip en route
to Iran. Secondly, the Russian-Azerbaijani relations faced tensions in
the recent years due to the Azerbaijani radar stations in Gabala. So
there is a necessity to improve them.
It is also important to remember that Azerbaijan is conducting
[presidential] election; in this respect too, the visit has certain
components. The opposition in Azerbaijan has managed to unite around
Roustam Ibrahimbekov, the opposition leader, and the fact is being
perceived as a Russian project.
Even if this isn't absolutely true, Ibrahimbekov is definitely a
Russian project in financial terms. Besides, Mr Ibrahimbekov is
a Russian citizen who has asked the Russian president to revoke
his Russian citizenship through rapid procedures because under the
Azerbaijani Constitution, citizens of other countries cannot nominate
themselves as candidates. And now Vladimir Putin can either revoke
his citizenship or choose not to do so.
The improvement of the Russian-Azerbaijani bilateral relations is
now on the agenda, the fact having been also confirmed by the Russian
presidential staff. Do you think the relations are likely to improve to
an extent to develop into a strategic [alliance] against the backdrop
of the Russian-Armenian relations which are said to be deteriorating
day by day?
Azerbaijan permanently collaborates with Russia in the arms supply
acquisition sector. I think Russia remains the main weapon supplier
for the countries on the post-Soviet area, with the exception of
those which are now NATO member states. As for Azerbaijan proper, it
purchases things from Ukraine and Israel as well. Russia, I repeat,
has been selling weapons to Azerbaijan since the very first years since
the country's gaining independence. The same is the true in relation to
Armenia and other countries. I don't think it is to Russia's advantage
to disturb the balance in the South Caucasus. There are two things
Russia doesn't need in the South Caucasus: the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and a renewal of war.
Also it is important to keep in mind [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey]
Lavrov's statement on the difficulty to maintain the status quo.
I am a political analyst familiar with hundreds of statement made by
different government bodies. And let me note that the important thing
in any statement is not what it says but where it is said and to whom,
with what purpose and in what circumstances.
Yes, things of the kind are said, but they have to be considered within
the general system of the information flow. The policies Russia has
been pursuing in the past 25 years remain to same.
There are six candidates [running for presidency] together with Ilham
Aliyev? Do you think the elections in Azerbaijan will be held the same
way as they have always been? And do you find the other candidates'
presence a 'mob show', as has been in Armenia if we believe the
radical opposition?
The situation in Armenia is not absolutely similar to that in
Azerbaijan. We do not have sultanates; nor do we have any problems
in terms of the hereditary transfer of power. Presidents here are
not elected for the third time after serving their second term.
Presidential elections in Armenia face a real competition. It's a
different matter that people are probably weak or not powerful enough
to hold victory.
After all the March events following the 2008 presidential election
were not a show or a circus spectacle. They were a proof of a political
participation, be it though a very bad and unpleasant one.
The 40-percent votes garnered by [opposition candidate] Raffi
Hovhannisian in the recent presidential poll also testified to that.
The fact he didn't manage to benefit from the results of a real
competition doesn't mean it [the competition] didn't exist.
It is, of course, difficult to compare Armenia with Switzerland or
France, but it shouldn't be compared to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan,
Azerbaijan, Russia and Korea either.
Hence, Aliyev will be the president. So why is the nominees' number
six? He wanted that way. If he wanted 40, there would be 40. Mr.
Ibrahimbekov is the only exception for the simple reason he doesn't
reside in Azerbaijan. The situation would be different if he did. And
I think Putin is now visiting Azerbaijan probably to prevent Mr
Ibrahimbekov from being registered as a candidate.
Should Aliyev and Putin fail to reach an agreement, Mr Ibrahimbekov
will not be registered. But if the developments take a different turn
to make the registration possible, they will have to beat the guys
after the election.
Any reaction by the world community will depend on that. But the
Azerbaijani elections will on average be declared neither good nor bad.
Observers will write in future that they didn't see any competitiveness
in Azerbaijan. But repeating myself, I have to say again that
no one expects elections in Azerbaijan to be similar to those in
France. Let's keep in mind that Azerbaijan is not a member of the
World Trade Organization, though it is involved in the [EU] Eastern
Partnership project. But it cannot conduct negotiations with the
EU over the Association Agreement. That is why Azerbaijan is what
it is. After all, Azerbaijan is rated as dictatorship in different
rankings. That's something which, in general, is right.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/08/13/iskandaryan/
13:02 13.08.13
In an interview with Tert.am, the political analyst Alexander
Iskandaryan has talked of Russian President Vladimir Putin's scheduled
trip to Baku. The expert has explained the reasons behind the Russian
leader's choice of country and the timing of the visit. He also
addresses the upcoming presidential election in Azerbaijan.
Mr. Iskandaryan, why do you think Vladimir Putin has chosen Azerbaijan
as his first visit destination since being elected a president?
Notably enough, the visit is quite impressive in terms of the Russian
flotilla's presence and the accompaniment of a big delegation.
Vladimir Putin is visiting Azerbaijan en route to Iran. As for the
context, Rosneft director Mr [Igor] Sechin was in Azerbaijan quite
recently, and the possibilities of working in Azerbaijan were very
probably discussed [in the course of the visit].
As the delegation includes the chief negotiator on the
Russian-Azerbaijani affairs, representatives of the Russian Ministry
of Emergency Situations, the Transport Ministry and the Ministry
of Defense, wide-profile agreements are going to be discussed. It's
quite possible that the reported orders for acquiring flotilla will
be realized. It is necessary to keep in mind that the military base
on the Turkmenbashi port - the opposite side of the Caspian Sea -
will be completed in 2015.
In more general terms, there are two reasons making the visit
necessary, especially now. The first, as I said, is the trip en route
to Iran. Secondly, the Russian-Azerbaijani relations faced tensions in
the recent years due to the Azerbaijani radar stations in Gabala. So
there is a necessity to improve them.
It is also important to remember that Azerbaijan is conducting
[presidential] election; in this respect too, the visit has certain
components. The opposition in Azerbaijan has managed to unite around
Roustam Ibrahimbekov, the opposition leader, and the fact is being
perceived as a Russian project.
Even if this isn't absolutely true, Ibrahimbekov is definitely a
Russian project in financial terms. Besides, Mr Ibrahimbekov is
a Russian citizen who has asked the Russian president to revoke
his Russian citizenship through rapid procedures because under the
Azerbaijani Constitution, citizens of other countries cannot nominate
themselves as candidates. And now Vladimir Putin can either revoke
his citizenship or choose not to do so.
The improvement of the Russian-Azerbaijani bilateral relations is
now on the agenda, the fact having been also confirmed by the Russian
presidential staff. Do you think the relations are likely to improve to
an extent to develop into a strategic [alliance] against the backdrop
of the Russian-Armenian relations which are said to be deteriorating
day by day?
Azerbaijan permanently collaborates with Russia in the arms supply
acquisition sector. I think Russia remains the main weapon supplier
for the countries on the post-Soviet area, with the exception of
those which are now NATO member states. As for Azerbaijan proper, it
purchases things from Ukraine and Israel as well. Russia, I repeat,
has been selling weapons to Azerbaijan since the very first years since
the country's gaining independence. The same is the true in relation to
Armenia and other countries. I don't think it is to Russia's advantage
to disturb the balance in the South Caucasus. There are two things
Russia doesn't need in the South Caucasus: the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and a renewal of war.
Also it is important to keep in mind [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey]
Lavrov's statement on the difficulty to maintain the status quo.
I am a political analyst familiar with hundreds of statement made by
different government bodies. And let me note that the important thing
in any statement is not what it says but where it is said and to whom,
with what purpose and in what circumstances.
Yes, things of the kind are said, but they have to be considered within
the general system of the information flow. The policies Russia has
been pursuing in the past 25 years remain to same.
There are six candidates [running for presidency] together with Ilham
Aliyev? Do you think the elections in Azerbaijan will be held the same
way as they have always been? And do you find the other candidates'
presence a 'mob show', as has been in Armenia if we believe the
radical opposition?
The situation in Armenia is not absolutely similar to that in
Azerbaijan. We do not have sultanates; nor do we have any problems
in terms of the hereditary transfer of power. Presidents here are
not elected for the third time after serving their second term.
Presidential elections in Armenia face a real competition. It's a
different matter that people are probably weak or not powerful enough
to hold victory.
After all the March events following the 2008 presidential election
were not a show or a circus spectacle. They were a proof of a political
participation, be it though a very bad and unpleasant one.
The 40-percent votes garnered by [opposition candidate] Raffi
Hovhannisian in the recent presidential poll also testified to that.
The fact he didn't manage to benefit from the results of a real
competition doesn't mean it [the competition] didn't exist.
It is, of course, difficult to compare Armenia with Switzerland or
France, but it shouldn't be compared to Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan,
Azerbaijan, Russia and Korea either.
Hence, Aliyev will be the president. So why is the nominees' number
six? He wanted that way. If he wanted 40, there would be 40. Mr.
Ibrahimbekov is the only exception for the simple reason he doesn't
reside in Azerbaijan. The situation would be different if he did. And
I think Putin is now visiting Azerbaijan probably to prevent Mr
Ibrahimbekov from being registered as a candidate.
Should Aliyev and Putin fail to reach an agreement, Mr Ibrahimbekov
will not be registered. But if the developments take a different turn
to make the registration possible, they will have to beat the guys
after the election.
Any reaction by the world community will depend on that. But the
Azerbaijani elections will on average be declared neither good nor bad.
Observers will write in future that they didn't see any competitiveness
in Azerbaijan. But repeating myself, I have to say again that
no one expects elections in Azerbaijan to be similar to those in
France. Let's keep in mind that Azerbaijan is not a member of the
World Trade Organization, though it is involved in the [EU] Eastern
Partnership project. But it cannot conduct negotiations with the
EU over the Association Agreement. That is why Azerbaijan is what
it is. After all, Azerbaijan is rated as dictatorship in different
rankings. That's something which, in general, is right.
http://www.tert.am/en/news/2013/08/13/iskandaryan/