Tweet
2013 MARKS A MILESTONE FOR SOUTH CAUCASUS COUNTRIES
Vesnik Kavkaza, Russia
Aug 13 2013
13 August 2013 - 11:38am
Alexei Vlasov exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
2013 marks a milestone for the South Caucasus countries. The
presidential elections in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are
zero hour for political elites. In the 20 years since the collapse
of the Soviet Union, according to pro-government experts, stable
management systems have been established, the balance in relations
between the authorities and the opposition was formed. However, every
electorate cycle in the South Caucasus is always a stress situation
for the society and the elite. 2013 is not an exception. Moreover,
all countries of the region has a common tendency: the crisis of the
old opposition and appearance of new and more radical rivals of the
current authorities.
Armenia
The Republican Party's leader Serge Sargsyan won the February
elections. It was predicted by the majority of international experts.
However, the gap between him and the second place which was taken
by the leader of the opposition party of Heritage, Raffi Ovannisyan,
appeared to be small - 58% and 36.7%.
The third president of Armenia was heavily criticized for clanship
of the power, corruption, unsettlement of the huge amount of
socio-economic problems, but his opponents had no alternative program
of reforms. The elections turned into a fight between persons,
not ideas.
Ovannosyan is a politician from "the old charger", well-known in
Armenia, but never being a contender for the presidential throne. He
accumulated the significant part of the protest electorate because
other promising candidates - the first president of Armenia Levon
Ter-Petrosyan and one of the richest persons of the country Gagik
Tsarukyan - decided not to take part in the elections. Many experts
thought that the decision by the leader of Prosperous Armenia was
about business. It was too risky for his business, and Tsarukyan
wasn't ready for this.
Anyway, for Ovannisyan the success will probably be the last, and the
May elections to the city council of the Armenian capital confirmed
this. The coalition "Hello, Yerevan" got only six seats in the Council
of the Elders.
Meanwhile, the internal problems of the Armenian society are still
relevant. The outflow of the population from the country gains a
disastrous character. Probably the elections of 2018 will have a
different, tougher scenario. The country demands modernization -
both political and socio-economic.
Azerbaijan
The elections of 2013 in Azerbaijan can become the last chance to
consolidate "the old opposition" which almost 20 years tries to
resist at first Heydar Aliyev, then his son, the current President
Ilham Aliyev. The National Front, Musavat, some other party structures
managed to gather into the National Council of Democratic Forces and
even choose a candidate who deserves to represent the opposition -
the popular social activist Rustam Ibragimbekov.
However, it is still unclear whether Ibragimbekov will manage to
register as a presidential candidate, because a criminal case was
initiated against him and he has Russian citizenship. But the point
is not in technical moments. Just like in Armenia, we have obvious
contradiction between ambitions, rather than political programs.
Behind-the-scene games play more significant role than competition in
the public field. So, there is no guarantee that the leader of Musavat
Isa Gambar won't decide to be a separate presidential candidate at
the last moment. Moreover, that the program of NCDF is standard:
fighting corruption, extension of the mass media freedoms, settlement
of social issues - any opposition leader will match the mottos.
At the same time, the so-called "net opposition activists"
who represent little-known youth opposition organizations, can
represent a bigger danger for the current authorities. They don't
like behind-the-scene negotiations, they are more technological and
have good contacts in embassies of Western countries. They can be a
serious resource in the future.
Nobody doubts that Ilham Aliyev will win the elections in October. The
question is what lessons the authorities will learn from the victory.
I think it is notable that there are a lot of discussions of staff
shifts in Baku after the presidential elections.
Georgia
In October, the presidential elections will also take place in
Georgia. But the Georgian situation is the most different in the
political context of the South Caucasus. An actual diarchy can be seen
here during the whole year, which is accompanied by fighting between
President Mikhail Saakashvili and Premier Bidzina Ivanishvili. The
rivalry will define the presidential election campaign.
The point is not in who will win personally, but whose protege he
or she will be. Anyway, a voter will be behind a candidate either
Saakashvili or Ivanishvili. The intrigue is improved by Ivanishvili's
promise to leave politics right after the presidential elections.
However, many experts doubt that this promise will be fulfilled. No
politician from the environment of Ivanishvili has such personal
popularity and political weight, like the current prime minister
of Georgia has, so his participation in the "big game" is the
main guarantee from revenge of Saakashvili's supporters. As for
candidates from the United National Movement, David Bakradze yields
to such figures from the presidential team as Gigi Ugulava and
Vano Merabishvili, from the rating point of view. But scandalous
criminal cases shortened the list of possible candidates from the
former party of power. In this context, Georgy Margvelashvili, the
minister of science in Ivanishvili's government, seems to be a more
promising candidate. At the same time, Nikolai Silayev, the senior
scientist of the Center of Problems of the Caucasus and Regional
Security under MGIMO, programs of Margvelashvili and Bakradze are
similar. "The peculiarity of the game is that there are no alternatives
to the program goals which Saakashvili stated: differing from Russia,
integration into European-Atlantic structures, and liberal economy,"
Silayev noted. The main problem is that whether settlement of diarchy
can solve the problems Georgian society faces.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/43799.html
From: A. Papazian
Vesnik Kavkaza, Russia
Aug 13 2013
13 August 2013 - 11:38am
Alexei Vlasov exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
2013 marks a milestone for the South Caucasus countries. The
presidential elections in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are
zero hour for political elites. In the 20 years since the collapse
of the Soviet Union, according to pro-government experts, stable
management systems have been established, the balance in relations
between the authorities and the opposition was formed. However, every
electorate cycle in the South Caucasus is always a stress situation
for the society and the elite. 2013 is not an exception. Moreover,
all countries of the region has a common tendency: the crisis of the
old opposition and appearance of new and more radical rivals of the
current authorities.
Armenia
The Republican Party's leader Serge Sargsyan won the February
elections. It was predicted by the majority of international experts.
However, the gap between him and the second place which was taken
by the leader of the opposition party of Heritage, Raffi Ovannisyan,
appeared to be small - 58% and 36.7%.
The third president of Armenia was heavily criticized for clanship
of the power, corruption, unsettlement of the huge amount of
socio-economic problems, but his opponents had no alternative program
of reforms. The elections turned into a fight between persons,
not ideas.
Ovannosyan is a politician from "the old charger", well-known in
Armenia, but never being a contender for the presidential throne. He
accumulated the significant part of the protest electorate because
other promising candidates - the first president of Armenia Levon
Ter-Petrosyan and one of the richest persons of the country Gagik
Tsarukyan - decided not to take part in the elections. Many experts
thought that the decision by the leader of Prosperous Armenia was
about business. It was too risky for his business, and Tsarukyan
wasn't ready for this.
Anyway, for Ovannisyan the success will probably be the last, and the
May elections to the city council of the Armenian capital confirmed
this. The coalition "Hello, Yerevan" got only six seats in the Council
of the Elders.
Meanwhile, the internal problems of the Armenian society are still
relevant. The outflow of the population from the country gains a
disastrous character. Probably the elections of 2018 will have a
different, tougher scenario. The country demands modernization -
both political and socio-economic.
Azerbaijan
The elections of 2013 in Azerbaijan can become the last chance to
consolidate "the old opposition" which almost 20 years tries to
resist at first Heydar Aliyev, then his son, the current President
Ilham Aliyev. The National Front, Musavat, some other party structures
managed to gather into the National Council of Democratic Forces and
even choose a candidate who deserves to represent the opposition -
the popular social activist Rustam Ibragimbekov.
However, it is still unclear whether Ibragimbekov will manage to
register as a presidential candidate, because a criminal case was
initiated against him and he has Russian citizenship. But the point
is not in technical moments. Just like in Armenia, we have obvious
contradiction between ambitions, rather than political programs.
Behind-the-scene games play more significant role than competition in
the public field. So, there is no guarantee that the leader of Musavat
Isa Gambar won't decide to be a separate presidential candidate at
the last moment. Moreover, that the program of NCDF is standard:
fighting corruption, extension of the mass media freedoms, settlement
of social issues - any opposition leader will match the mottos.
At the same time, the so-called "net opposition activists"
who represent little-known youth opposition organizations, can
represent a bigger danger for the current authorities. They don't
like behind-the-scene negotiations, they are more technological and
have good contacts in embassies of Western countries. They can be a
serious resource in the future.
Nobody doubts that Ilham Aliyev will win the elections in October. The
question is what lessons the authorities will learn from the victory.
I think it is notable that there are a lot of discussions of staff
shifts in Baku after the presidential elections.
Georgia
In October, the presidential elections will also take place in
Georgia. But the Georgian situation is the most different in the
political context of the South Caucasus. An actual diarchy can be seen
here during the whole year, which is accompanied by fighting between
President Mikhail Saakashvili and Premier Bidzina Ivanishvili. The
rivalry will define the presidential election campaign.
The point is not in who will win personally, but whose protege he
or she will be. Anyway, a voter will be behind a candidate either
Saakashvili or Ivanishvili. The intrigue is improved by Ivanishvili's
promise to leave politics right after the presidential elections.
However, many experts doubt that this promise will be fulfilled. No
politician from the environment of Ivanishvili has such personal
popularity and political weight, like the current prime minister
of Georgia has, so his participation in the "big game" is the
main guarantee from revenge of Saakashvili's supporters. As for
candidates from the United National Movement, David Bakradze yields
to such figures from the presidential team as Gigi Ugulava and
Vano Merabishvili, from the rating point of view. But scandalous
criminal cases shortened the list of possible candidates from the
former party of power. In this context, Georgy Margvelashvili, the
minister of science in Ivanishvili's government, seems to be a more
promising candidate. At the same time, Nikolai Silayev, the senior
scientist of the Center of Problems of the Caucasus and Regional
Security under MGIMO, programs of Margvelashvili and Bakradze are
similar. "The peculiarity of the game is that there are no alternatives
to the program goals which Saakashvili stated: differing from Russia,
integration into European-Atlantic structures, and liberal economy,"
Silayev noted. The main problem is that whether settlement of diarchy
can solve the problems Georgian society faces.
http://vestnikkavkaza.net/articles/politics/43799.html
From: A. Papazian