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What Wasn't Said In Baku: Thomas De Waal

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  • What Wasn't Said In Baku: Thomas De Waal

    WHAT WASN'T SAID IN BAKU: THOMAS DE WAAL

    http://armenpress.am/eng/news/729518/what-wasn%E2%80%99t-said-in-baku-thomas-de-waal.html
    16:58, 16 August, 2013

    YEREVAN, AUGUST 16, ARMENPRESS: Vladimir Putin's one-day visit to Baku
    on August 13 was fertile ground for Kremlinological speculation. This
    was published by the senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment Thomas
    de Waal, specializing primarily in the South Caucasus region comprising
    Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia and their breakaway territories as
    well as the wider Black Sea region.

    As reported by Armenpress, Thomas de Waal wrote: "Despite professions
    of friendship and love by both sides and President Aliyev's declaration
    that "We have very similar positions on all issues," the formal part
    of the negotiations, unsurprisingly, revealed very little.

    So it is more productive to focus on who was not in Baku and what
    was not said.

    There was no mention of the Gabala radar station, which the Russians
    were forced to abandon last year. The very fact of the Putin visit
    meant that Russia considered that episode closed. Putin uttered
    only a one-line reference to resolution of the Karabakh conflict,
    which for a while was the Number One foreign policy initiative of
    his predecessor, Dmitry Medvedev-making it obvious once again that
    this is an issue that does not especially interest him.

    Conspicuously missing from Putin's large delegation was the head of
    Gazprom, Alexey Miller. Instead it was Igor Sechin, head of Rosneft,
    who signed a grandiose cooperation agreement with the Azerbaijani
    state oil company, SOCAR. Rosneft has been seeking a piece of the
    Absheron gas field and the Russians must have left disappointed that
    they got no more than a generally worded cooperation agreement.

    A few other important words did not get uttered in the meetings.

    One was "America." The very fact of a Russian head of state arriving
    in Baku with half a dozen ministers in tow reminded the Azerbaijanis
    where they should put their priorities. A second was "Armenia." One
    reason for the visit, with all its talk of Azerbaijani-Russian
    military cooperation, was to make the Armenians nervous and think more
    seriously about joining Putin's Customs Union. (One prominent face
    in the Russian delegation was the head of Russia's defense export
    company Rosoboronexport, Anatoly Isaykin. Aliyev said publicly that
    military cooperation with Russia is worth four billion dollars.)

    A third missing word that hung over the whole visit was "elections."

    Aliyev runs for a third presidential term on October 9. This time the
    normally incompetent Azerbaijani opposition has nominated someone
    of real stature, well-known film maker Rustam Ibrahimbekov, to be
    its unity candidate. However, in order to compete, Ibrahimbekov must
    renounce the Russian part of his dual citizenship, a procedure which
    has handed the Russian authorities a de facto veto on his participation
    in the poll. Nothing had to be said on this-both sides knew what the
    other wanted".

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