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ARIEL COHEN: RUSSIA'S LOWERING ITS PROFILE AS GO-BETWEEN IN SETTLEMENT OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT GIVES U.S. OPPORTUNITY TO RESTORE ITS POSITION IN REGION
Trend, Azerbaijan
Aug 21 2013
Azerbaijan, Baku, Aug. 21 /A.Badalova, V.Zhavoronkova/
Russia's lowering its profile as a go-between in the settlement of
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict gives the U.S. an opportunity to restore its
position in the region, the leading expert of the Heritage Foundation
for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy,
Ariel Cohen believes.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains
the main sticking point between the two nations, but Putin's visit
likely made no a significant difference on this issue, Cohen wrote
in an article in The National Interest.
"Putin reiterated that the dispute needs to be resolved
'politically'-not through a war. This is a signal to Azerbaijan, whose
military budget alone is greater than Armenia's state budget. Due
to hydrocarbon revenues, Azeri military capabilities are growing,
including weapons purchased from Russia," the expert wrote.
According to Cohen, the Kremlin is not ready or willing to discuss any
new initiatives and proposals that could potentially lead to solving
the protracted conflict. This is largely due to the simple fact that
Nagorno-Karabakh is an important guarantee of Russia's political and
military presence in the South Caucasus.
"Following four years of high-level mediation led by the then
president Dmitry Medvedev, the Kremlin has lowered its profile as a
go-between. This gives Washington an opportunity to strengthen its
relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia and restore its position in
the region," Cohen wrote.
The United States could have taken advantage of this situation by
proposing to work together with Russia on finding a solution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, the expert's article said.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia, France and the U.S. are
currently holding peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four
resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
surrounding regions.
The former Soviet republic is an emerging leader in the South Caucasus
region, and Putin's high-profile visit was another way to demonstrate
to Washington that Russia's zone of "privileged interests" today
covers almost all post-Soviet republics with the exception of Baltics,
Cohen wrote.
The expert notes that, Putin arrived in Baku together with two Russian
warships and a large delegation of ministers and business leaders.
Among the latter were Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Defense Minister
Sergey Shoygu, Energy Minister Alexander Novak, Emergency Situations
Minister Vladimir Puchkov, Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov, Minister
of the Economy Alexei Ulyukayev, and Igor Bratchikov, head of the
Russian delegation to the multilateral talks on the Caspian Sea.
Cohen wrote that, since 2008, the United States has diminished its
involvement in the post-Soviet space. It has deferred to Russia in
all areas except the transit network to Afghanistan-gone after 2014.
In the meantime, Moscow has happily filled the vacuum created by
Washington.
"Putin's visit came just two month before Azerbaijan's presidential
elections. For an act of public support for the incumbent president
Ilham Aliyev and as an effort to strengthen the ties between the
two countries, Putin's timing could not have been better," the
article said.
Cohen also notes that, the problem is, the Obama White House and
State Department are losing interest in the post-Soviet space, and
their interest may decline even further following the departure of
NATO forces from Afghanistan.
At the same time, Baku and Moscow are working closely within the
framework of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation
(BSEC), the expert wrote.
According to the expert, Azerbaijan is Russia's largest trading
partner in the South Caucasus, having supplied Gazprom 1.5 billion
cubic meters of gas in 2012.
"Clearly, the two leaders had a lot to talk about, especially since
Putin was accompanied by the oil magnates Sechin and Alekperov,"
Cohen wrote.
The growing role of Azerbaijan as an independent energy exporter and
transit country for Central Asian resources to Europe worries Russia,
he noted.
Rosneft, the Russian state-controlled oil behemoth, is interested in
joining the Absheron gas project, the expert's article said.
"This would bring Rosneft to the lucrative European gas market,
Trend, Azerbaijan
Aug 21 2013
Azerbaijan, Baku, Aug. 21 /A.Badalova, V.Zhavoronkova/
Russia's lowering its profile as a go-between in the settlement of
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict gives the U.S. an opportunity to restore its
position in the region, the leading expert of the Heritage Foundation
for Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy,
Ariel Cohen believes.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan remains
the main sticking point between the two nations, but Putin's visit
likely made no a significant difference on this issue, Cohen wrote
in an article in The National Interest.
"Putin reiterated that the dispute needs to be resolved
'politically'-not through a war. This is a signal to Azerbaijan, whose
military budget alone is greater than Armenia's state budget. Due
to hydrocarbon revenues, Azeri military capabilities are growing,
including weapons purchased from Russia," the expert wrote.
According to Cohen, the Kremlin is not ready or willing to discuss any
new initiatives and proposals that could potentially lead to solving
the protracted conflict. This is largely due to the simple fact that
Nagorno-Karabakh is an important guarantee of Russia's political and
military presence in the South Caucasus.
"Following four years of high-level mediation led by the then
president Dmitry Medvedev, the Kremlin has lowered its profile as a
go-between. This gives Washington an opportunity to strengthen its
relations with Azerbaijan and Armenia and restore its position in
the region," Cohen wrote.
The United States could have taken advantage of this situation by
proposing to work together with Russia on finding a solution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, the expert's article said.
The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian
armed forces have occupied 20 per cent of Azerbaijan since 1992,
including the Nagorno-Karabakh region and seven surrounding districts.
Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The
co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia, France and the U.S. are
currently holding peace negotiations.
Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four
resolutions on the liberation of the Nagorno-Karabakh and the
surrounding regions.
The former Soviet republic is an emerging leader in the South Caucasus
region, and Putin's high-profile visit was another way to demonstrate
to Washington that Russia's zone of "privileged interests" today
covers almost all post-Soviet republics with the exception of Baltics,
Cohen wrote.
The expert notes that, Putin arrived in Baku together with two Russian
warships and a large delegation of ministers and business leaders.
Among the latter were Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Defense Minister
Sergey Shoygu, Energy Minister Alexander Novak, Emergency Situations
Minister Vladimir Puchkov, Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov, Minister
of the Economy Alexei Ulyukayev, and Igor Bratchikov, head of the
Russian delegation to the multilateral talks on the Caspian Sea.
Cohen wrote that, since 2008, the United States has diminished its
involvement in the post-Soviet space. It has deferred to Russia in
all areas except the transit network to Afghanistan-gone after 2014.
In the meantime, Moscow has happily filled the vacuum created by
Washington.
"Putin's visit came just two month before Azerbaijan's presidential
elections. For an act of public support for the incumbent president
Ilham Aliyev and as an effort to strengthen the ties between the
two countries, Putin's timing could not have been better," the
article said.
Cohen also notes that, the problem is, the Obama White House and
State Department are losing interest in the post-Soviet space, and
their interest may decline even further following the departure of
NATO forces from Afghanistan.
At the same time, Baku and Moscow are working closely within the
framework of the Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation
(BSEC), the expert wrote.
According to the expert, Azerbaijan is Russia's largest trading
partner in the South Caucasus, having supplied Gazprom 1.5 billion
cubic meters of gas in 2012.
"Clearly, the two leaders had a lot to talk about, especially since
Putin was accompanied by the oil magnates Sechin and Alekperov,"
Cohen wrote.
The growing role of Azerbaijan as an independent energy exporter and
transit country for Central Asian resources to Europe worries Russia,
he noted.
Rosneft, the Russian state-controlled oil behemoth, is interested in
joining the Absheron gas project, the expert's article said.
"This would bring Rosneft to the lucrative European gas market,