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ASSOCIATION AGREEMENTS WITH THE EU: STEPPING ON THE SAME RAKE AGAIN?
http://hetq.am/eng/articles/28849/association-agreements-with-the-eu-stepping-on-the-same-rake-again?.html
11:10, August 23, 2013
(This article first appeared in thePolicy Forum Armenia's Blog,
August 22, 2013)
This November's summit in Vilnius between the EU and six members
of the European Partnership program (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova,
Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan) is expected to produce some tangible
results-signing of the Association Agreements-for Ukraine and Moldova
and provide "a light at the end of the tunnel" for the rest of the
group by way of updated timelines for signing.
What does this mean for Armenia especially now when regional
developments are becoming scary to watch.
What Armenia will be gaining by getting closer to Europe without
putting its own house together is not clear. Economic benefits are
elusive at best. With Serge Sargsyan and his entourage in power,
it would be naïve to expect any governance change-an important
prerequisite for progress-or any meaningful reform that would improve
the conditions without hurting their private pockets. Is Europe going
to forego its potential energy projects with Azerbaijan in order to
support Armenia? The answer is a clear no.
Some Russian analysts are warning that by getting closer to Europe
Armenia is getting ready to surrender Karabakh. Whether that happens
directly or indirectly (after a war that would be staged by the
parties involved, after which Karabakh will be returned to Azerbaijan)
is irrelevant. What is relevant is that Russia is obviously unhappy
with what's going on and can contribute to the acceleration of these
adverse scenarios for Armenia by not taking sides or by just delaying
its response for a couple of days.
Armenia's open expression of discomfort over the sale of advanced
weaponry to Azerbaijan and improvements in relations with EU is seen
by Russia as the complaints of a spoiled child. This complaining may
end badly for Serge Sargsyan, since he depends heavily on Russia for
external and internal legitimacy and does not have the support of his
people to go all the way. The Russians will call his bluff because
they are well aware how low Sargsyan's popularity is in Armenia and
how vulnerable he is domestically.
Whatever their incentives may be, bureaucrats in Brussels should
know that the path to Armenia lies through the hearts and minds of
its people, and not through fraudulent presidential elections and
favors to its leadership. Sargsyan may be eager to deliver what Europe
expects him to deliver (after the Swiss-led OSCE team rubber stamped
the February 2013 presidential election), but there is one wrinkle-he
may not be able to, since people of Armenia may well realize that
Europe is solving other problems by trying to wrestle Armenia from
the arms of the Russian bear.
Interestingly enough, April 24, 2015-the Genocide's centennial-may
very well have something to do with it, but this is a separate topic to
which we intend to return later. In the meantime, Putin's visit to Baku
earlier this month may have expedited things beyond both Sargsyan's and
Europe's control, as the Russian president may have been able to make
an offer to his Azeri counterpart that the latter could not refuse.
Before throwing away the Armenia-Russia nexus as old and useless,
and instead putting all our eggs in the "European basket", we should
acknowledge that the status of Armenia as Russia's vassal was realized
with the help of Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan. If its relations
with Armenia were managed appropriately, Russia may, just may, not have
sold the advance weaponry to Azerbaijan and in general may have been
more attentive to Armenia's national security and economic development
needs. Indeed, the way we conduct/govern ourselves matters here too!
How far would the EU or NATO go to provide security guarantees to
Armenia if something happens in Artsakh? Can Putin-Sargsyan relation
still be salvaged? If not, what (or perhaps who) would be the basis
of new Armenia-Russia relations and what does this mean for domestic
political dynamics in Armenia? What does any of this tell us about
the likelihood and the timing of renewed war between Armenia and
Azerbaijan? These and many other questions remain unanswered by
political analysts.
Whatever the policy choice is, it should be made by people of Armenia
with the help of their legitimately elected government, who will have
both the right incentives and intellectual power to make the right
choices. Short of this, we will have lose-lose situations and end up
having to clean up the mess afterwards. What will clearly produce a
win-win situation for Armenia is to put its house in order and build
an Armenia-centric policy line which includes a strong/progressive
economy, free/democratic society, and vibrant foreign partnerships
involving good relations with both Russia and Europe.
In the meantime, by cozying up with Europe now, Sargsyan is making
the same mistake he made with the signing of the Turkish-Armenia
protocols and very similar to what Georgian President Saakashvili made
by confronting Russia in South Ossetia in 2008. In both instances
the decision-makers relied too much on what their "foreign friends"
told them and completely ignored the will of their own people. We
hope Sargsyan is smart enough to avoid stepping on the same rake again!
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
http://hetq.am/eng/articles/28849/association-agreements-with-the-eu-stepping-on-the-same-rake-again?.html
11:10, August 23, 2013
(This article first appeared in thePolicy Forum Armenia's Blog,
August 22, 2013)
This November's summit in Vilnius between the EU and six members
of the European Partnership program (Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova,
Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan) is expected to produce some tangible
results-signing of the Association Agreements-for Ukraine and Moldova
and provide "a light at the end of the tunnel" for the rest of the
group by way of updated timelines for signing.
What does this mean for Armenia especially now when regional
developments are becoming scary to watch.
What Armenia will be gaining by getting closer to Europe without
putting its own house together is not clear. Economic benefits are
elusive at best. With Serge Sargsyan and his entourage in power,
it would be naïve to expect any governance change-an important
prerequisite for progress-or any meaningful reform that would improve
the conditions without hurting their private pockets. Is Europe going
to forego its potential energy projects with Azerbaijan in order to
support Armenia? The answer is a clear no.
Some Russian analysts are warning that by getting closer to Europe
Armenia is getting ready to surrender Karabakh. Whether that happens
directly or indirectly (after a war that would be staged by the
parties involved, after which Karabakh will be returned to Azerbaijan)
is irrelevant. What is relevant is that Russia is obviously unhappy
with what's going on and can contribute to the acceleration of these
adverse scenarios for Armenia by not taking sides or by just delaying
its response for a couple of days.
Armenia's open expression of discomfort over the sale of advanced
weaponry to Azerbaijan and improvements in relations with EU is seen
by Russia as the complaints of a spoiled child. This complaining may
end badly for Serge Sargsyan, since he depends heavily on Russia for
external and internal legitimacy and does not have the support of his
people to go all the way. The Russians will call his bluff because
they are well aware how low Sargsyan's popularity is in Armenia and
how vulnerable he is domestically.
Whatever their incentives may be, bureaucrats in Brussels should
know that the path to Armenia lies through the hearts and minds of
its people, and not through fraudulent presidential elections and
favors to its leadership. Sargsyan may be eager to deliver what Europe
expects him to deliver (after the Swiss-led OSCE team rubber stamped
the February 2013 presidential election), but there is one wrinkle-he
may not be able to, since people of Armenia may well realize that
Europe is solving other problems by trying to wrestle Armenia from
the arms of the Russian bear.
Interestingly enough, April 24, 2015-the Genocide's centennial-may
very well have something to do with it, but this is a separate topic to
which we intend to return later. In the meantime, Putin's visit to Baku
earlier this month may have expedited things beyond both Sargsyan's and
Europe's control, as the Russian president may have been able to make
an offer to his Azeri counterpart that the latter could not refuse.
Before throwing away the Armenia-Russia nexus as old and useless,
and instead putting all our eggs in the "European basket", we should
acknowledge that the status of Armenia as Russia's vassal was realized
with the help of Robert Kocharyan and Serge Sargsyan. If its relations
with Armenia were managed appropriately, Russia may, just may, not have
sold the advance weaponry to Azerbaijan and in general may have been
more attentive to Armenia's national security and economic development
needs. Indeed, the way we conduct/govern ourselves matters here too!
How far would the EU or NATO go to provide security guarantees to
Armenia if something happens in Artsakh? Can Putin-Sargsyan relation
still be salvaged? If not, what (or perhaps who) would be the basis
of new Armenia-Russia relations and what does this mean for domestic
political dynamics in Armenia? What does any of this tell us about
the likelihood and the timing of renewed war between Armenia and
Azerbaijan? These and many other questions remain unanswered by
political analysts.
Whatever the policy choice is, it should be made by people of Armenia
with the help of their legitimately elected government, who will have
both the right incentives and intellectual power to make the right
choices. Short of this, we will have lose-lose situations and end up
having to clean up the mess afterwards. What will clearly produce a
win-win situation for Armenia is to put its house in order and build
an Armenia-centric policy line which includes a strong/progressive
economy, free/democratic society, and vibrant foreign partnerships
involving good relations with both Russia and Europe.
In the meantime, by cozying up with Europe now, Sargsyan is making
the same mistake he made with the signing of the Turkish-Armenia
protocols and very similar to what Georgian President Saakashvili made
by confronting Russia in South Ossetia in 2008. In both instances
the decision-makers relied too much on what their "foreign friends"
told them and completely ignored the will of their own people. We
hope Sargsyan is smart enough to avoid stepping on the same rake again!
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress