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THERE ARE NO ENEMIES, THERE ARE THOSE IN NEED
The Moscow-based friends of Armenians (our friends) inform that
Azerbaijan's functionaries undertake an active recruitment of people
who could be listed under the "status" of expert and could in one way
or another make anti-Armenian or ill-minded statements addressed to
Armenia. It proved not easy for them to find such experts.
Most employees of academic institutions and respectable newspapers
refused dryly to take part in this paid campaign. Equally many
political commentators who contribute to periodicals and are often
ready to offer any material strangely declined this offer.
Evidently, anti-Armenian interviews published by Russian and
Azerbaijani mass media often do not report accurately what has been
stated. At my request my friends of one of Moscow's respectable
newspapers turned to two experts of academic institutions who could
hardly be suspected of sympathy for Armenians and Armenia. In addition,
it was conveyed that it would be desirable to criticize the policy
of Armenia. They declined.
It is rather strange, and it would be good to think about it. The
Moscow-based experts are reluctant to join this campaign. Our friends
in Moscow think that experts could be involved in the anti-Armenian
campaign only on the grounds of engagement, either political or
financial.
According to their evaluations, the Russian campaign against Armenia
has a limited scale. A limited circle of information agencies are
participating in this dirty campaign which lack ideology, enough
funds and professional analysts. There is an opinion that Moscow
is waiting for an "outcome" which may follow the initialing of the
agreement with the European Union in Vilnius.
It is expected that after this event the Armenian political leadership
will make some political statements that will enable Russia to put
intensive pressure on Armenia. Moscow may expect escalation in the
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and even domestic conflicts.
At the same time, none of the important state bodies of Russia is
willing to take part in drafting a plan of events aimed at pressure on
Armenia. There is an opinion that this direction is not "crucial" to
Russia's interests. Besides, it does not have an economic significance
that would affect the interests of big companies.
In fact, the Russian MFA is blamed for this foreign policy of Armenia
which did not possess any levers of influence on preventive decision
making by the Russian government. Nevertheless, the diplomatic
services always supplied exhaustive information on Armenia to the
Russian political leadership not only in terms of formal observation
of processes and events.
Analysis of events was built on the scheme "friends-foes". As a result,
the Russians made the same mistake in Armenia as the Americans earlier,
i.e. nobody understood who is who.
The Russian military never interfered with information and elaboration
of reactive events except those relating to defense matters. Now there
is growing confidence that some Russian special services were not
interested in conveying to the Russian leadership real circumstances
relating to Armenia. However, it is all in the past, and as it always
happens in the Russian government, nobody is accountable.
Currently, Moscow is looking for and cannot find an enemy. If there
is no enemy, it must be invented and shaped. However, there is not
enough focus and understanding of the issue even for this task.
The main goal is to ensure a permanent crisis and scandals that would
draw the attention of the European Union and the Western community.
However, the scandal requires either an operable "fifth column" or
an idea supported by serious circles. There is neither one, nor the
other, nor yet a third option...
Hopes for the West's vigilance about intensifying problems of Armenia's
situation are not justified, and Moscow has apparently understood
this. There are two reliable factors - Turkey and Azerbaijan - to which
Russia is trying to delegate the role of suppressors of Armenia. But
this not so harmless scenario and aggravation of Armenia may easily
transform to a process of suffocating Russia.
Currently Russia is having consultations with Ankara and Baku on
possible reactions to more large-scale events in the region, and there
seem to be favorable conditions to roll up for the game of sacrifice
of Armenia's interests.
The Armenian deputy minister of foreign affairs Shavarsh Kocharyan
has finally revealed the position of the government and correlated
the Russian "business" of sale of weapon and the Armenian business of
agreement with the European Union. As a result, Shavarsh Kocharyan
became a national hero and thus made an important claim to the post
of the minister of foreign affairs.
However, it is clear from this statement that the risk was taken
consciously though without due analysis. (State sovereignty is
impossible without sovereign analytics.) One can study the advantages
that Russia will enjoy if Armenia integrates with the Euro-Atlantic
community, which Iran understands very well regarding itself. However,
this is a different issue and requires other chandeliers.
Igor Muradyan 11:42 27/08/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30738
The Moscow-based friends of Armenians (our friends) inform that
Azerbaijan's functionaries undertake an active recruitment of people
who could be listed under the "status" of expert and could in one way
or another make anti-Armenian or ill-minded statements addressed to
Armenia. It proved not easy for them to find such experts.
Most employees of academic institutions and respectable newspapers
refused dryly to take part in this paid campaign. Equally many
political commentators who contribute to periodicals and are often
ready to offer any material strangely declined this offer.
Evidently, anti-Armenian interviews published by Russian and
Azerbaijani mass media often do not report accurately what has been
stated. At my request my friends of one of Moscow's respectable
newspapers turned to two experts of academic institutions who could
hardly be suspected of sympathy for Armenians and Armenia. In addition,
it was conveyed that it would be desirable to criticize the policy
of Armenia. They declined.
It is rather strange, and it would be good to think about it. The
Moscow-based experts are reluctant to join this campaign. Our friends
in Moscow think that experts could be involved in the anti-Armenian
campaign only on the grounds of engagement, either political or
financial.
According to their evaluations, the Russian campaign against Armenia
has a limited scale. A limited circle of information agencies are
participating in this dirty campaign which lack ideology, enough
funds and professional analysts. There is an opinion that Moscow
is waiting for an "outcome" which may follow the initialing of the
agreement with the European Union in Vilnius.
It is expected that after this event the Armenian political leadership
will make some political statements that will enable Russia to put
intensive pressure on Armenia. Moscow may expect escalation in the
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan and even domestic conflicts.
At the same time, none of the important state bodies of Russia is
willing to take part in drafting a plan of events aimed at pressure on
Armenia. There is an opinion that this direction is not "crucial" to
Russia's interests. Besides, it does not have an economic significance
that would affect the interests of big companies.
In fact, the Russian MFA is blamed for this foreign policy of Armenia
which did not possess any levers of influence on preventive decision
making by the Russian government. Nevertheless, the diplomatic
services always supplied exhaustive information on Armenia to the
Russian political leadership not only in terms of formal observation
of processes and events.
Analysis of events was built on the scheme "friends-foes". As a result,
the Russians made the same mistake in Armenia as the Americans earlier,
i.e. nobody understood who is who.
The Russian military never interfered with information and elaboration
of reactive events except those relating to defense matters. Now there
is growing confidence that some Russian special services were not
interested in conveying to the Russian leadership real circumstances
relating to Armenia. However, it is all in the past, and as it always
happens in the Russian government, nobody is accountable.
Currently, Moscow is looking for and cannot find an enemy. If there
is no enemy, it must be invented and shaped. However, there is not
enough focus and understanding of the issue even for this task.
The main goal is to ensure a permanent crisis and scandals that would
draw the attention of the European Union and the Western community.
However, the scandal requires either an operable "fifth column" or
an idea supported by serious circles. There is neither one, nor the
other, nor yet a third option...
Hopes for the West's vigilance about intensifying problems of Armenia's
situation are not justified, and Moscow has apparently understood
this. There are two reliable factors - Turkey and Azerbaijan - to which
Russia is trying to delegate the role of suppressors of Armenia. But
this not so harmless scenario and aggravation of Armenia may easily
transform to a process of suffocating Russia.
Currently Russia is having consultations with Ankara and Baku on
possible reactions to more large-scale events in the region, and there
seem to be favorable conditions to roll up for the game of sacrifice
of Armenia's interests.
The Armenian deputy minister of foreign affairs Shavarsh Kocharyan
has finally revealed the position of the government and correlated
the Russian "business" of sale of weapon and the Armenian business of
agreement with the European Union. As a result, Shavarsh Kocharyan
became a national hero and thus made an important claim to the post
of the minister of foreign affairs.
However, it is clear from this statement that the risk was taken
consciously though without due analysis. (State sovereignty is
impossible without sovereign analytics.) One can study the advantages
that Russia will enjoy if Armenia integrates with the Euro-Atlantic
community, which Iran understands very well regarding itself. However,
this is a different issue and requires other chandeliers.
Igor Muradyan 11:42 27/08/2013 Story from Lragir.am News:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/30738