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COULD THE SOUTH CAUCASUS JOIN THE EU?
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Aug 28 2013
AMANDA PAUL
[email protected]
Today, all three South Caucasus countries, Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Georgia, aspire to have closer ties with the West through deepening
cooperation with Euro-Atlantic institutions.
While we have witnessed with Georgia that NATO membership can be put
on the table, delivery is far from guaranteed. When it comes to the
EU, all three countries are taking steps to further integrate both
politically and economically. With the US having rolled back its
interest in the region, which may further diminish in the aftermath
of its Afghanistan withdrawal, the EU is of increasing importance
for this region, though this was not the case only a short time ago.
During the 1990s, the South Caucasus hardly figured on the EU's radar,
with the EU being preoccupied with the bloody Balkan war and the
changing situation in its Eastern neighborhood following the collapse
of the Soviet Union. However, over the last decade or so, the EU has
become increasingly visible. The EU offers an interesting alternative
to the relations these nations have had with their large and powerful
neighbors -- Russia, Iran and Turkey, all three of which have left a
negative footprint one way or another on one or more of the countries.
The EU has no such baggage, making it well-placed to engage with the
region -- and with societies in the three states desiring the sort
of change the EU achieved in Eastern Europe and the Balkans.
All three countries are part of the EU's European Neighborhood Policy
and Eastern Partnership. All face many difficult challenges and are
presently looking for different sorts of relations with the EU.
Georgia and Armenia are on track to sign association agreements and
trade agreements at the end of this year. To get to this point they
have had to carry out EU demanded reforms as well as hold free and
fair elections. Georgia's end goal is EU membership; Armenia, having a
particularly close -- but often not very comfortable -- relationship
with Russia (not least related to security) has been more muted over
how it sees its future with the EU, although clearly deeper ties with
Brussels allow Yerevan an alternative to Russia and Iran, with no
strings attached. Yet while Yerevan continues to cite a multi-vector
foreign policy in the long term, this is not sustainable. As Armenia
has moved closer to Brussels, Russia has become more vocal about its
discontent. Azerbaijan's situation is slightly different, as relations
remain dominated by energy and with Baku not yet in a position to
finalize an association agreement. Yet the Azerbaijan-EU relationship
is increasingly one of interdependence and not simply a case of the
EU needing Azerbaijani gas; Azerbaijan also needs the EU market.
Moreover, much of Azerbaijani society is keen for further EU engagement
both in terms of supporting democracy building and taking on a greater
role for the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia.
While today none of the countries are in a position to apply for
EU membership, I believe this day will come. Georgia is already
requesting a membership perspective. While the EU does not give out
membership perspectives easily, by doing so it would support the
European aspirations of Georgian society, thereby making it easier
for Georgia's political elites to push through difficult reforms.
Georgia has been the lead actor in the Europeanization of the South
Caucasus. In due course, this Europeanization will bring increased
security, prosperity and stability to a region that is presently very
volatile. Many of the tools the EU used in the Western Balkans could
also be replicated in the South Caucasus.
The question as to where the EU's borders will eventually end remains
unanswered. I believe it may be the South Caucasus; if Georgia and
then later Armenia and even Azerbaijan adhere to EU criteria they
should be accepted as candidate countries. After all, where else does
Georgia belong, if not in Europe? While this end may not be welcome
to some, particularly Russia, is it not our responsibility to help
bring security, peace and stability to a small and vulnerable country
if it has shown the will-power to fulfill the relevant criteria?
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=324805
Today's Zaman, Turkey
Aug 28 2013
AMANDA PAUL
[email protected]
Today, all three South Caucasus countries, Armenia, Azerbaijan and
Georgia, aspire to have closer ties with the West through deepening
cooperation with Euro-Atlantic institutions.
While we have witnessed with Georgia that NATO membership can be put
on the table, delivery is far from guaranteed. When it comes to the
EU, all three countries are taking steps to further integrate both
politically and economically. With the US having rolled back its
interest in the region, which may further diminish in the aftermath
of its Afghanistan withdrawal, the EU is of increasing importance
for this region, though this was not the case only a short time ago.
During the 1990s, the South Caucasus hardly figured on the EU's radar,
with the EU being preoccupied with the bloody Balkan war and the
changing situation in its Eastern neighborhood following the collapse
of the Soviet Union. However, over the last decade or so, the EU has
become increasingly visible. The EU offers an interesting alternative
to the relations these nations have had with their large and powerful
neighbors -- Russia, Iran and Turkey, all three of which have left a
negative footprint one way or another on one or more of the countries.
The EU has no such baggage, making it well-placed to engage with the
region -- and with societies in the three states desiring the sort
of change the EU achieved in Eastern Europe and the Balkans.
All three countries are part of the EU's European Neighborhood Policy
and Eastern Partnership. All face many difficult challenges and are
presently looking for different sorts of relations with the EU.
Georgia and Armenia are on track to sign association agreements and
trade agreements at the end of this year. To get to this point they
have had to carry out EU demanded reforms as well as hold free and
fair elections. Georgia's end goal is EU membership; Armenia, having a
particularly close -- but often not very comfortable -- relationship
with Russia (not least related to security) has been more muted over
how it sees its future with the EU, although clearly deeper ties with
Brussels allow Yerevan an alternative to Russia and Iran, with no
strings attached. Yet while Yerevan continues to cite a multi-vector
foreign policy in the long term, this is not sustainable. As Armenia
has moved closer to Brussels, Russia has become more vocal about its
discontent. Azerbaijan's situation is slightly different, as relations
remain dominated by energy and with Baku not yet in a position to
finalize an association agreement. Yet the Azerbaijan-EU relationship
is increasingly one of interdependence and not simply a case of the
EU needing Azerbaijani gas; Azerbaijan also needs the EU market.
Moreover, much of Azerbaijani society is keen for further EU engagement
both in terms of supporting democracy building and taking on a greater
role for the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Armenia.
While today none of the countries are in a position to apply for
EU membership, I believe this day will come. Georgia is already
requesting a membership perspective. While the EU does not give out
membership perspectives easily, by doing so it would support the
European aspirations of Georgian society, thereby making it easier
for Georgia's political elites to push through difficult reforms.
Georgia has been the lead actor in the Europeanization of the South
Caucasus. In due course, this Europeanization will bring increased
security, prosperity and stability to a region that is presently very
volatile. Many of the tools the EU used in the Western Balkans could
also be replicated in the South Caucasus.
The question as to where the EU's borders will eventually end remains
unanswered. I believe it may be the South Caucasus; if Georgia and
then later Armenia and even Azerbaijan adhere to EU criteria they
should be accepted as candidate countries. After all, where else does
Georgia belong, if not in Europe? While this end may not be welcome
to some, particularly Russia, is it not our responsibility to help
bring security, peace and stability to a small and vulnerable country
if it has shown the will-power to fulfill the relevant criteria?
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=324805