Tweet
CHOICES FOR THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
New York Times
Aug 28 2013
By DENIS CORBOY, WILLIAM COURTNEY, RICHARD KAUZLARICH and KENNETH
YALOWITZ Published: August 28, 2013
Five years after the Russian-Georgian war captured world attention,
the South Caucasus - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia - continues to face
huge challenges. The region's geopolitical importance is ebbing as
global energy production expands and NATO winds down in Afghanistan.
The three countries also face major security risks, unmet popular
expectations and governance failures. For the South Caucasus, this
is a time for choices.
Security issues plague the South Caucasus. Russia's military occupies
two "independent" enclaves in Georgia - Abkhazia and South Ossetia
- and some contiguous land. A two-decade military standoff persists
around Nagorno-Karabakh, populated by ethnic Armenians but lying within
Azerbaijan. Russia plays both sides, maintaining a military base
in Armenia, equipping its forces and extending a security treaty,
but also selling Azerbaijan billions of dollars in arms. Turkey
exacerbates insecurity by sealing its border with Armenia, while Iran
supports Armenia.
Russia is pressuring its neighbors to join the Eurasian Economic
Community. Moscow worries, with reason, that the South Caucasus
countries prefer to align with the European Union. Even though Armenia
is an observer in the Eurasian group, it does not seem eager to join.
Moscow's brief trade skirmish with Ukraine could presage tougher
stances with other neighbors.
The three countries also have major internal issues, highlighted in
presidential elections this year.
Last February in Armenia, the incumbent president, Serzh Sargsyan,
won a flawed election. Ahead of the vote, two prominent candidates
withdrew. A third candidate went on a hunger strike, and a fourth was
shot but recovered. Observers from the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe said that voter turnout in many rural areas,
Sargsyan's base, were "implausibly high." Political strains and stasis
impede reforms in a country weakened by blocked borders, emigration
and oligarch ties with officialdom.
In Azerbaijan, the potential for political upheaval is increasing
amid massive corruption, grossly unequal distribution of wealth and
dictatorship. Public protests in 2011 scared the ruling elite.
President Ilham Aliyev tightened his grip by arresting journalists
and bloggers. He also is blocking the return to Azerbaijan of Rustam
Ibragimbekov, an opposition leader selected by a coalition to oppose
him in the October elections.
Last year, Georgia enjoyed its first-ever peaceful transfer of
power through the ballot box. An opposition coalition led by the
billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili won a parliamentary election against
an entrenched party led by President Mikheil Saakashvili. The new
government, citing public pressure, has indicted former top officials
for crimes allegedly committed in office. This has raised concerns
about political justice. Support for the government is ebbing as
economic conditions fail to improve.
All these elections may not be good news for Nagorno-Karabakh.
Polarized politics in Armenia, and the likely retention in Azerbaijan
of an autocrat whose legitimacy is declining, will impede compromises
to reach a peace settlement.
While retaining Georgia's Western orientation, Ivanishvili has lessened
tensions with Russia. Moscow is lifting import bans on Georgian wine,
agricultural produce and bottled water, but profound differences on
Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain. Georgia should focus on bolstering
democracy, improving its economy and building a defensive military.
All three countries are at decisive moments with the European Union.
The Eastern Partnership can help anchor their future in an expanded
European structure. This November in Vilnius, the European Union will
likely sign a free trade agreement and other accords with Armenia
and Georgia. Azerbaijan has a distance to travel but may sign a visa
agreement. The E.U. is right to offer more cooperation and political
support in return for more reforms.
The West must speak out on behalf of those denied freedom, especially
in Azerbaijan. With every flawed election that is allowed to pass,
every uncontested arrest of an opposition figure and every usurpation
of wealth, those who stand for freedom become more impatient
with Western dithering. A worrisome sign in Azerbaijan is rising
anti-American sentiment among youths and intellectuals.
Second, the European Union must take greater advantage of an historic
opportunity in the South Caucasus. The E.U.'s democratic standards
and wealth are appealing beacons. Closer E.U. ties will bring more
freedom of maneuver in dealing with powerful neighbors.
Third, Western support for the independence of South Caucasian
countries remains essential.
It is time for the South Caucasians to make up their minds about
their future. If they want closer cooperation with the West, they
must pursue reforms for transparent governance and wider economic
opportunity. As the countries grapple with their choices, the West
must keep faith with those advocating reforms and freedom.
Denis Corboy served as European Commission ambassador to Armenia
and Georgia. William Courtney was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and
Georgia. Richard Kauzlarich served as U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan
and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kenneth Yalowitz was U.S. ambassador to
Belarus and Georgia.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/29/opinion/global/choices-for-the-south-caucasus.html?_r=0
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
New York Times
Aug 28 2013
By DENIS CORBOY, WILLIAM COURTNEY, RICHARD KAUZLARICH and KENNETH
YALOWITZ Published: August 28, 2013
Five years after the Russian-Georgian war captured world attention,
the South Caucasus - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia - continues to face
huge challenges. The region's geopolitical importance is ebbing as
global energy production expands and NATO winds down in Afghanistan.
The three countries also face major security risks, unmet popular
expectations and governance failures. For the South Caucasus, this
is a time for choices.
Security issues plague the South Caucasus. Russia's military occupies
two "independent" enclaves in Georgia - Abkhazia and South Ossetia
- and some contiguous land. A two-decade military standoff persists
around Nagorno-Karabakh, populated by ethnic Armenians but lying within
Azerbaijan. Russia plays both sides, maintaining a military base
in Armenia, equipping its forces and extending a security treaty,
but also selling Azerbaijan billions of dollars in arms. Turkey
exacerbates insecurity by sealing its border with Armenia, while Iran
supports Armenia.
Russia is pressuring its neighbors to join the Eurasian Economic
Community. Moscow worries, with reason, that the South Caucasus
countries prefer to align with the European Union. Even though Armenia
is an observer in the Eurasian group, it does not seem eager to join.
Moscow's brief trade skirmish with Ukraine could presage tougher
stances with other neighbors.
The three countries also have major internal issues, highlighted in
presidential elections this year.
Last February in Armenia, the incumbent president, Serzh Sargsyan,
won a flawed election. Ahead of the vote, two prominent candidates
withdrew. A third candidate went on a hunger strike, and a fourth was
shot but recovered. Observers from the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe said that voter turnout in many rural areas,
Sargsyan's base, were "implausibly high." Political strains and stasis
impede reforms in a country weakened by blocked borders, emigration
and oligarch ties with officialdom.
In Azerbaijan, the potential for political upheaval is increasing
amid massive corruption, grossly unequal distribution of wealth and
dictatorship. Public protests in 2011 scared the ruling elite.
President Ilham Aliyev tightened his grip by arresting journalists
and bloggers. He also is blocking the return to Azerbaijan of Rustam
Ibragimbekov, an opposition leader selected by a coalition to oppose
him in the October elections.
Last year, Georgia enjoyed its first-ever peaceful transfer of
power through the ballot box. An opposition coalition led by the
billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili won a parliamentary election against
an entrenched party led by President Mikheil Saakashvili. The new
government, citing public pressure, has indicted former top officials
for crimes allegedly committed in office. This has raised concerns
about political justice. Support for the government is ebbing as
economic conditions fail to improve.
All these elections may not be good news for Nagorno-Karabakh.
Polarized politics in Armenia, and the likely retention in Azerbaijan
of an autocrat whose legitimacy is declining, will impede compromises
to reach a peace settlement.
While retaining Georgia's Western orientation, Ivanishvili has lessened
tensions with Russia. Moscow is lifting import bans on Georgian wine,
agricultural produce and bottled water, but profound differences on
Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain. Georgia should focus on bolstering
democracy, improving its economy and building a defensive military.
All three countries are at decisive moments with the European Union.
The Eastern Partnership can help anchor their future in an expanded
European structure. This November in Vilnius, the European Union will
likely sign a free trade agreement and other accords with Armenia
and Georgia. Azerbaijan has a distance to travel but may sign a visa
agreement. The E.U. is right to offer more cooperation and political
support in return for more reforms.
The West must speak out on behalf of those denied freedom, especially
in Azerbaijan. With every flawed election that is allowed to pass,
every uncontested arrest of an opposition figure and every usurpation
of wealth, those who stand for freedom become more impatient
with Western dithering. A worrisome sign in Azerbaijan is rising
anti-American sentiment among youths and intellectuals.
Second, the European Union must take greater advantage of an historic
opportunity in the South Caucasus. The E.U.'s democratic standards
and wealth are appealing beacons. Closer E.U. ties will bring more
freedom of maneuver in dealing with powerful neighbors.
Third, Western support for the independence of South Caucasian
countries remains essential.
It is time for the South Caucasians to make up their minds about
their future. If they want closer cooperation with the West, they
must pursue reforms for transparent governance and wider economic
opportunity. As the countries grapple with their choices, the West
must keep faith with those advocating reforms and freedom.
Denis Corboy served as European Commission ambassador to Armenia
and Georgia. William Courtney was U.S. ambassador to Kazakhstan and
Georgia. Richard Kauzlarich served as U.S. ambassador to Azerbaijan
and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kenneth Yalowitz was U.S. ambassador to
Belarus and Georgia.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/29/opinion/global/choices-for-the-south-caucasus.html?_r=0
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress