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PROSPECTIVE AZERBAIJAN-SOUTH KOREA ARMS DEAL WOULD ALTER SOUTH CAUCASUS MILITARY BALANCE
by Alex Melikishvili
IHS Global Insight
August 27, 2013
The Azerbaijani government expressed interest in acquiring military
equipment worth approximately USD3 billion from South Korea, according
to a news report carried by the Azeri-Press Agency (APA) yesterday
(26 August). Citing Korean dailyHankook Ilbo's source in the Korean
parliament, the APA report stated that the Azerbaijani side raised this
issue during a three-day visit by a Korean parliamentary delegation
to Baku in July. Azerbaijan's proposed acquisitions include two
submarines, a destroyer, a transport ship, T-50 Golden Eagle trainer
aircraft, K-9 Thunder 155 mm self-propelled howitzers, helicopters, and
unmanned aerial vehicles. The Korean government has made no decision
about Azerbaijan's request yet, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
recommended the Ministry of Defence to exercise "special caution and
restraint" in considering the proposal given Azerbaijan's unresolved
conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh and the likelihood that
such a deal would alter the military balance in the region.
Significance:South Korea's reluctance to approve the deal stems from
its unwillingness to antagonise Russia. Such a significant military
transfer would alter the military balance in the South Caucasus region,
which Russia includes within its area of vital security interest. Seoul
is also aware that supplying modern military equipment is likely
to embolden Azerbaijan to retake by force the districts occupied
by secessionist forces from Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the sheer
size of Azerbaijan's offer is very lucrative to South Korean defence
manufacturers, who are likely to aggressively lobby the government to
approve it. For comparison, the target figure of defence exports set
by the Korean Defence Acquisition Program Administration for 2012 was
USD3 billion. Coming just a few months after receiving a large weapons
shipment from Russia, the offer to South Korea indicates Azerbaijan's
willingness to diversify its military suppliers in pursuit of increased
defensive and offensive capabilities (seeArmenia-Azerbaijan: 19
June 2013:) The inclusion of naval assets, including submarines,
also signals Azerbaijan's renewed focus on protecting its oil and
gas resources and associated infrastructure in the Caspian Sea.
by Alex Melikishvili
IHS Global Insight
August 27, 2013
The Azerbaijani government expressed interest in acquiring military
equipment worth approximately USD3 billion from South Korea, according
to a news report carried by the Azeri-Press Agency (APA) yesterday
(26 August). Citing Korean dailyHankook Ilbo's source in the Korean
parliament, the APA report stated that the Azerbaijani side raised this
issue during a three-day visit by a Korean parliamentary delegation
to Baku in July. Azerbaijan's proposed acquisitions include two
submarines, a destroyer, a transport ship, T-50 Golden Eagle trainer
aircraft, K-9 Thunder 155 mm self-propelled howitzers, helicopters, and
unmanned aerial vehicles. The Korean government has made no decision
about Azerbaijan's request yet, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
recommended the Ministry of Defence to exercise "special caution and
restraint" in considering the proposal given Azerbaijan's unresolved
conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh and the likelihood that
such a deal would alter the military balance in the region.
Significance:South Korea's reluctance to approve the deal stems from
its unwillingness to antagonise Russia. Such a significant military
transfer would alter the military balance in the South Caucasus region,
which Russia includes within its area of vital security interest. Seoul
is also aware that supplying modern military equipment is likely
to embolden Azerbaijan to retake by force the districts occupied
by secessionist forces from Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the sheer
size of Azerbaijan's offer is very lucrative to South Korean defence
manufacturers, who are likely to aggressively lobby the government to
approve it. For comparison, the target figure of defence exports set
by the Korean Defence Acquisition Program Administration for 2012 was
USD3 billion. Coming just a few months after receiving a large weapons
shipment from Russia, the offer to South Korea indicates Azerbaijan's
willingness to diversify its military suppliers in pursuit of increased
defensive and offensive capabilities (seeArmenia-Azerbaijan: 19
June 2013:) The inclusion of naval assets, including submarines,
also signals Azerbaijan's renewed focus on protecting its oil and
gas resources and associated infrastructure in the Caspian Sea.