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Alexander Krylov: Successfully Combined Customs Union Membership And

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  • Alexander Krylov: Successfully Combined Customs Union Membership And

    ALEXANDER KRYLOV: SUCCESSFULLY COMBINED CUSTOMS UNION MEMBERSHIP AND CERTAIN FORM OF COOPERATION WITH THE EU WOULD BE A GOOD EXAMPLE FOR EUROPE

    ArmInfo's Interview with Alexander Krylov, Doctor of Historical
    Sciences, President of the Scholarly Society of Caucasus Studies,
    leading research associate of the Center for Problems of Development
    and Modernization at the Institute of World Economy and International
    Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

    by David Stepanyan

    ARMINFO Tuesday, October 1, 23:12

    Despite its desire to access the Customs Union that contradicts the
    DCFTA - a component of the Association Agreement with the EU - Yerevan
    will try to sign a document on a special, lower status of Armenia in
    the relations with the EU at the upcoming Eastern Partnership Summit
    in Vilnius. How much possible is it?

    I haven't got the impression that Armenia was offered an 'upgraded
    status' in the relations with the EU before 3 September. Now, it is
    offered a 'lower' one. The agreement on Armenia's Association with
    the EU seems to be symbolic and shows its aspiration for civilized
    and democratic Europe. Nothing practical has been observed so far. It
    would be good if the citizens of Armenia received an opportunity of
    visa free traveling to the EU and then a similar regime were introduced
    also for Russia and other post-Soviet countries.

    Establishment of a single European space would give new opportunities
    for settling the problems on the continent. Unfortunately, new and new
    borders are emerging in Europe and there is no progress in continental
    integration. Such trends on the continent do not allow Armenia to
    combine cooperation with Europe and the Customs Union membership.

    After the Armenian President had taken the decision on Armenia's
    accession to the Customs Union, a number of Russian analysts and
    experts started to say that Armenia's membership of the Customs Union
    will be followed by recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic at
    least by the member states of the Customs Union - Russia, Belarus and
    Kazakhstan. In the meantime, they state that Azerbaijan can avoid such
    a scenario only if it joins the Eurasian integration process. Would
    you explain the prospects of such pressure on Baku?

    Mass media comment on the last integration events as a result of
    pressure by the EU and Russia upon these or those countries, for
    instance, Armenia and Ukraine. Basically, everything is not so simple.

    Actually, two integration unions are being formed which have their own
    game rules within the unions as well as regarding the external world.

    Nobody can make Armenia or Ukraine join the Customs Union or EU, as
    they are independent states, and they themselves choose what to join.

    When politicians or experts say that joining any project will have
    certain consequences and even losses, it is watched like a pressure,
    threats and even "arm-twisting". Actually, these are just predictions
    called to show consequences of these or those steps. It is clear that
    Ukraine's integration in the EU will change the nature of its relations
    with the Customs Union member-states much, first of all in the economic
    sense. However, it is not clear yet what Europe offers the countries
    which have been invited to join the Association Agreement. The same may
    be said about Russia and its Eurasian Union and Customs Union projects
    too. But here potential members of these unions have an opportunity
    of becoming fully-fledged members and developing almost all the game
    rules themselves. As for the EU, the situation is different here,
    there is still no word about the fully-fledged membership and equal
    partnership. We may ride the long European pine together with the
    countries of North Africa, Turkey and small Balkan counties. It is
    clear that both roads will not be embraved with roses and potential
    members of any integration projects will be forced to always prove
    their substantiality.

    Azerbaijan does its best to evade integration into any military and
    political unions. CanTurkey alone ensure Azerbaijan's security?

    The vulnerability of Azerbaijan's position is conditioned by the fact
    that this country is not a member of any collective security structure,
    such as NATO, SCO, CSTO. Even the contracts with a NATO member-state
    Turkey do not guarantee Azerbaijan support in case of potential
    conflicts. For instance, after the bellicose statements from Baku,
    representatives of Ankara have repeatedly made it clear that they
    are against resumption of the war in Nagorno-Karabakh and that in
    case of the war resumption, Baku cannot hang hat on Turkey's support.

    At the same time, it is necessary to take into consideration the factor
    that such statements were made in the conditions of the military
    parity of the confronting parties, and a problem, what Turkey will
    do in case of changing of the geo-political situation still remains
    unsettled. Even against the background of permanent growth of the
    army by Azerbaijan, it is obvious that only by its own means and
    even with a help of Turkey Baku will hardly be able to neutralize
    all potential threats from the south. Meanwhile, threats may appear
    in the near future in the context of development of the Big Middle
    East located to the south of Azerbaijan.

    What are the prospects of Russia's policy for establishing the Eurasian
    Union in the post-Soviet territory by means of economic and political
    pressure on the post-Soviet countries given that no other methods
    are observed?

    I cannot agree with the question formulation. The West asks for a
    certain response from the post-Soviet states about the future direction
    of their development and the nature of their future relations with
    Russia. Various options are watched and their possible consequences
    are discussed. They openly say that the game rules at the post-soviet
    territory will change soon depending on the choice made by the former
    Soviet republics. If to speak about pressure, it is the pressure
    of their own responsibility for their own choice. I cannot say that
    the prospects of setting up of the Eurasian Union or Customs Union
    are clear and cloudless, and all their members will be happy and
    rich. The same may be said about the European Union as well with
    all its problems and local disagreements. Any choice has positive
    and negative sides and one should take them into account when making
    a choice in favor of the European or Eurasian Union. However, it is
    necessary to emphasize that the situation of such a choice cannot be
    normal. Moreover, that was not Moscow that initiated in Europe the
    "either - or" policy.

    The frozen Armenian-Turkish protocols still remain on the agenda of
    the two countries' parliaments. What geopolitical realities might
    necessitate the restart of the Armenian-Turkish dialogue?

    Azerbaijan's position was just an excuse for the failure of Armenia's
    football diplomacy. Besides the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, Armenia and
    Turkey have a complex of problems related to the genocide of 1915. All
    this was left beyond the football diplomacy, so, no surprise it ended
    in such a way. The Armenian-Turkish dialogue will be restarted only
    given the wish of both sides and their mutual commitment to show a
    complex approach to bilateral problems.


    From: Baghdasarian
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