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Crisis Group Warns Of Rising Tensions Over Karabakh

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  • Crisis Group Warns Of Rising Tensions Over Karabakh

    CRISIS GROUP WARNS OF RISING TENSIONS OVER KARABAKH

    Transitions Online, Czech Republic
    Oct 1 2013

    A new International Crisis Group briefing (pdf) warns of the risk of
    accidental war between Armenia and Azerbaijan unless the international
    community knocks heads together in Baku and Yerevan.

    But the briefing "does not predict a second war is either imminent
    or more likely than not. It does suggest the near-term threats to
    stability are becoming more acute."

    Armenia and Azerbaijan went to war in the early 1990s over
    Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave located within Azerbaijan that is
    populated largely by ethnic Armenians. Fighting ended in 1994, but each
    side reports hundreds of cease-fire violations every month. In the past
    year the most serious incidents have been far from Nagorno-Karabakh,
    ICG writes.

    Armenia and Azerbaijan spend heavily on military equipment, with
    Russia a major supplier to both sides.

    "Baku has increasingly emphasized a military solution, publicly and
    privately. Strategic planners discuss this in much more specific
    terms than even a year ago," the think tank writes.

    "Armenia has pursued its own military buildup, increasing defense
    spending by over 25 percent in 2013. Though in real terms the $450
    million total is far less than Azerbaijan's, Moscow gives Yerevan heavy
    discounts on its weapons, partially compensating for the imbalance."

    The Armenian news agency PanArmenian.net rejects the ICG's findings.

    While the report attributes terms such as "Blitzkrieg,'~R "pre-emptive
    strike,'~R and '~Qtotal war" to planners on both sides, in truth,
    "the Armenian side does not engage in military rhetoric, the latter
    being Azerbaijan's 'privilege' with the country's leadership missing no
    chance to express their aggressive moods. Armenia's 'strident rhetoric'
    is limited to mere expressions of readiness to resist Azeri attacks,"
    PanArmenian writes.

    Addressing the UN General Assembly last week, Azerbaijani Foreign
    Minister Elmar Mammadyarov called for international affirmation
    of his country's sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and declared,
    "Armenia's annexationist policy has absolutely no chance of success."

    The ICG briefing acknowledges the skepticism on both sides about the
    international conflict resolution effort, known as the Minsk Group,
    and calls on Russia to take a much more active role as mediator and
    to suspend arms sales to both countries.

    Ioana Caloianu is a TOL editorial assistant. Ky Krauthamer is a senior
    editor at TOL. Alexander Silady is a TOL editorial intern.

    http://www.tol.org/client/article/23968-bosnian-census-begins-hungarys-homeless-face-new-legal-hurdles.html

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