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The Ukraine tug of war

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  • The Ukraine tug of war

    The Japan Times
    November 29, 2013, Friday


    The Ukraine tug of war



    Russian President Vladimir Putin has won an important foreign policy
    victory with the decision by Ukraine to suspend talks on an
    association agreement with the European Union. Putin countered the EU
    offer with threats and blandishments of his own. While Ukrainian
    officials insist that the door remains open, there is no mistaking
    Kiev's decision to cast its lot with Russia.

    Association status is the EU's way of building ties with countries
    short of membership.



    The EU negotiates a framework agreement with a third country that
    typically focuses on economic, trade, political, social or security
    ties. Free trade agreements with nonmember states are association
    agreements.

    Ukraine first voiced a desire to conclude some sort of association
    agreement with the EU in 1994, and various negotiations have been held
    since then. Talks on a free trade agreement began in 2008, and the
    next year, Ukraine was identified as one of the six post-Soviet states
    that would join "the Eastern Partnership" with the EU. This concept
    was intended to provide a framework for discussion of contentious
    issues without having to join the EU. In addition to facilitating the
    resolution of these problems, the Eastern Partnership would extend EU
    influence to the east, and help reorient those former Soviet states to
    the West, lessening Russian sway over those governments. The Ukraine
    association agreement was to have been signed at an EU summit this
    week in Lithuania.

    Well aware of European intentions, Moscow has done its best to
    frustrate those plans. It has proposed a rival trade bloc, imposed
    trade restrictions on Ukraine and threatened even worse if the deal
    goes through. The EU has helped Ukraine secure future gas supplies,
    promised 300 million in annual aid and ensured that $822 million is
    available via the International Monetary Fund. Ukraine President
    Viktor Yanukovich has said that that is not enough money to make the
    deal a winner for his country, however.

    According to Yanukovich, the deal would cost Ukraine $500 billion in
    trade with Russia and the adoption of EU standards would add another
    $100 billion to the tab.

    The EU's demands for political reform did not help its case. As part
    of the association deal, the EU sought the release from prison of
    opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko. The former prime minister is
    considered the target of political payback, and her release would be
    the most tangible sign that Ukraine seeks to reform its political
    system. (The Ukraine government denies that it has engaged in
    selective prosecution or that Tymoshenko is treated differently from
    any other citizen.) It was proposed that Tymoshenko be released on
    medical leave for treatment abroad for her back problems. Six
    different versions of legislation designed to free Tymoshenko for
    medical reasons were defeated by Yanukovich's party. On Monday, she
    declared a hunger strike. While Yanukovich insists that the government
    has not turned its back on the EU and that many of the reforms that
    would be required are going to occur anyway, the die appears to have
    been cast. Ukraine will now focus its efforts on reaching a deal with
    Moscow.

    The pressure on Ukraine follows Russian efforts to get Armenia to
    change course. It too was going to join the free trade agreement with
    the EU but it abruptly abandoned those plans in September after
    Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian had an emergency meeting with Putin
    and days after Russia concluded a multi-billion dollar arms deal with
    Azerbaijian, Armenian'srival. There is speculation that Sarkisian
    changed his mind to avoid losing Russian support in the conflict over
    Nagorno-Karabakh.

    While Georgia and Moldova are still expected to sign agreements with
    the EU this week in Lithuania, the loss of Ukraine, a country of 46
    million people, will be a blow to the EU's plans to extend its reach
    eastward. There is speculation that Ukraine is just bargaining.
    Yanukovich is said to fear Tymoshenko's re-emergence as a rival in the
    next presidential campaign. His party's rejection of her release is,
    according to this logic, a way to change the terms of the deal.

    That is an over-optimistic reading. Putin is strongly opposed to the
    agreement. His Russia, a great power that seeks to reclaim its
    superpower status and the respect of the rest of the world, will not
    abandon its interests in the near abroad, and certainly not in
    Ukraine, which is considered by many to be the cradle of Russian
    civilization. There is talk of a joint Ukraine, Russia and EU trade
    commission that would effectively give Moscow a say over economic
    relations in Eastern Europe.

    There are some lessons to be drawn from these developments. The first
    is the readiness of the Russians to play hardball and inflict real
    pain on those nations with which it has serious political disputes.
    Moscow sees no distinction between economics and politics. Second, the
    EU is not prepared to play hardball of this nature. If it truly seeks
    to enlarge its influence, then it must decide which is more important
    - the expansion of its political influence or the spread of its
    political systems.

    It is not clear if a loosening of demands regarding Tymoshenko would
    have made a difference, but Brussels did not appear interested in
    finding out. That is shortsighted thinking in a serious geopolitical
    contest.

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