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  • Former Soviet States Make Choice In Vilnius

    FORMER SOVIET STATES MAKE CHOICE IN VILNIUS

    Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
    Dec 2 2013

    2 December 2013 - 12:25pm

    By Victoria Panfilova, an NG commentator, exclusively for Vestnik
    Kavkaza

    Offers from Brussels and Moscow to the ex-Soviet republics to choose
    between the European and Customs Unions has put them between a rock
    and a hard place. The choice of one of the unions aggravates relations
    with the other. The EU seems more loyal, giving time and chances to
    members of the Eastern Partnership to think, study all the pros and
    cons and make a choice. If they fail at the Vilnius summit, they can
    try again in the future. Russia is harsher: either the Customs Union
    or be aggrieved for your own choice.

    They seem to forget that the Eastern Partnership was initiated by
    Poland and Sweden, with the US standing behind them, not the EU. The
    European Union had enough problems with Greece and its suddenly
    shattering hopes around Ireland. Irreversible problems could be
    seen in the traditionally problematic states of southern countries
    of the continent. Washington's will to see the EU strong does not
    always seem honest. Although its desire, even though discreet, to
    weaken influence of Russia is always honest. This is why Russian
    uncompromising approach in the said issue and flexibility of the EU
    appear quite understandable.

    Six members of the Eastern Partnership can be geographically split
    into western (Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova) and southern (South Caucasus
    states). The Vilnius summit outlined a more cloudy fate for the
    'western triplets' than the 'eastern.' Predicting the outcome of the
    Ukrainian crisis is complicated. Some Ukrainian political analysts
    believe that even schism of the Ukrainian state is possible. So this
    problem provokes more concerns about integrity of Ukraine than its
    foreign political goals.

    The situation with Belarus is also unclear. There are periods when
    Brussels forgets about the Belarusian president, 'the last dictator
    in Europe," and his manner of rule and starts liberalizing relations
    with Minsk. But the exceptional firmness of Alexander Lukashenko in
    relations with allies hinders the process. Lukashenko ends up faithful
    to Moscow in his attempts to make the best dividends from Russia and
    the West, although he understands that it would be hard to withstand
    pressure from the West without the help of Russia. Belarus and Ukraine
    signed nothing in Vilnius but the EU has not slammed the door for them,
    though Belarus is a member of the Customs Union.

    Moldova initialed the association agreement to implement the free trade
    and visa-free regime for long periods. The Document needs ratifying by
    the parliament of Moldova, most members of which are communists with
    their own vision of the future. New parliamentary polls are coming. The
    Communist Party may achieve the constitutional majority again in 2014.

    The 'southern triplet' is a lot more predictable. Azerbaijan took
    quite a passive position in the Eastern Partnership from the very
    start. The self-sufficient state can talk with the EU as an equal actor
    and set priorities of cooperation, with account of Europe's need for
    hydrocarbons. Simplification of the visa regime was the priority for
    the Vilnius summit. Brussels agreed and Baku probably needed nothing
    else. The Karabakh problem is evidently limiting opportunities for
    political maneuvers of Azerbaijan and closer cooperation with the
    EU, considering that the Customs Union and other Russian integration
    projects are of little interest to the republic, could cause certain
    annoyance in Moscow. This is of no interest to Baku.

    The scenario of Armenia was easy to figure out. The association
    agreement, individual for every member of the Eastern Partnership,
    offered Armenia a free trade zone, simplification of the visa
    regime in exchange for reforms of administration and legislature to
    harmonize them with European standards. The political and military
    aspect were totally excluded, giving hopes that Moscow will not be
    challenged by choice of a strategic Trans-Caucasus partner. It was
    clear that in the situation Armenia was in, deprived of chances to
    make a political maneuver because of the Karabakh problem and in
    great economic dependence, it had no choice.

    Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said at a recent visit to Moscow
    that Armenia wanted to join the Customs Union. Such sudden u-turn
    triggered minor grievances and disappointment of the pro-Western
    part of the society. But the recent polls of Gallup 'legitimized'
    the president's choice. About 70% of the population speak for the
    Customs Union. In Vilnius, worried about the predictable u-turn of
    Armenia, Europe was trying to both 'save its face' and the partner
    by signing a blurred memorandum and making declarations about plans
    to develop relations. Relations will probably progress but Armenia,
    as presupposed, stays in the geopolitical zone of Russian influence.

    Arrival of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Yerevan on November
    2 will only put a logical end at this stage of the story.

    Georgia, as expected, initialed the agreement, continuing to drift
    in the European direction. The visual dividends Georgia achieved are
    cheaper EU visas, though Georgians cannot receive them fast.

    Rapprochement continues. Obviously, some pressure from Moscow will
    grow. How will it all turn out at a pinch? This may result in a new
    trade embargo or complications in former Georgian autonomies Abkhazia
    and South Ossetia. Access to the breakaway republics will be even
    harder, construction of border barriers will continue deeper on the
    Georgian territory. But it seems that Georgia is unimaginably far
    from joining the EU, unless a political decision will be made for it,
    the way it was made for Bulgaria, despite its inability to meet the
    criteria. No security guarantees can be given to Georgia. This makes
    its foreign political vector irreversible.

    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/48178.html




    From: A. Papazian
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