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ARMENIAN-IRANIAN RELATIONS ARE JEOPARDIZED
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Thursday, 13 February 2014, 10:44
Recently the ambassador of Iran has been one of the main heroes of
developments relating to Armenia. Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan
is also a hero. However, their heroism is on different poles. The
ambassador of Iran made some important statements that stem from the
interests of Armenia, while it is hard to say the same thing about
Tigran Sargsyan's activities.
It is hard to tell what may come out of the meeting of these two
personalities with diametrically different roles. Will the ambassador
of Iran Mohammad Reisi ask Tigran Sargsyan, for example, to explain
his statement that the Iranian ambassador's statement about selling
cheap gas to Armenia was a "diplomatic mistake"? Tigran Sargsyan said
so in answer to the question of a reporter during his end-of-year
press conference.
The Iranian ambassador had said that gas may cost 400 dollars for
one, and 100 dollars for another, everything depends on the result
of negotiations.
Now, was it a diplomatic mistake or, on the contrary, was it evidence
to the mistake of Armenia's policy which failed to negotiate cheap
gas with Iran?
The story of "mistakes" in the Iranian aspect dates back to 2006,
one of the biggest "mistakes" over the two decades of independence of
Armenia when Iran-Armenia pipeline was laid out but the width of the
pipe was narrow for transit and it was eventually given to Gazprom
as a gift.
Recently Iran has mentioned those "mistakes" more often. Official
Yerevan pretends not noticing them or at least avoids addressing them
in public. It is not clear what is said non-publicly but usually one
bright sunny morning the society of Armenia witnesses a public collapse
of a non-public conversation, as in the case of the Armenian-Turkish
protocols and the Eastern Partnership. This can be the case of the
Armenian-Iranian direction. Tehran was most probably worried about
this prospect, especially after September 3.
On September 3 Armenia took a step that actually disturbed
the balance in the region. Armenia's step has strengthened the
Russian-Turkish-Azerbaijani line in the South Caucasus which
is supported by Israel from time to time. Such disturbance of the
regional balance worries Tehran which may not manage to improve its
relation with the West as an alternative.
In this regard, Armenia is a key factor. However, this factor has
been handed over to Russia. The Iranian ambassador talked to the
prime minister of Armenia about energy projects while after the
gas deal Russia is not interested in any other projects aside from
gas. In this regard, Russia has already taken up and put to sleep
the project of building a new nuclear plant in Armenia while it is
building a nuclear plant in Turkey which is four times more expensive.
After gas capitulation, at least until 2043, the Armenian-Iranian
energy projects are jeopardized. And it is not accidental that Iran is
trying to find out from Yerevan what should be expected in this regard,
if one can trust Yerevan at all after what happened on September 3.
For the time being, Tehran is trying to establish contacts with
Yerevan. If no certainty is achieved, Tehran will certainly deal with
the Customs Union because Tehran cannot have the situation close to
its border. However, it will bring the Armenian-Iranian relations to
a stop.
The point is that the Armenian-Iranian relations are based on the
natural interests of the two states, not economic projects. The
interests of any other two countries in the region, even the
Turk-Azerbaijani tandem, are not in such harmony as those of Iran
and Armenia. And in this case Armenia's policy is headed not just
against a state but nature, which is very dangerous.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31910#sthash.40brPEKf.dpuf
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Thursday, 13 February 2014, 10:44
Recently the ambassador of Iran has been one of the main heroes of
developments relating to Armenia. Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan
is also a hero. However, their heroism is on different poles. The
ambassador of Iran made some important statements that stem from the
interests of Armenia, while it is hard to say the same thing about
Tigran Sargsyan's activities.
It is hard to tell what may come out of the meeting of these two
personalities with diametrically different roles. Will the ambassador
of Iran Mohammad Reisi ask Tigran Sargsyan, for example, to explain
his statement that the Iranian ambassador's statement about selling
cheap gas to Armenia was a "diplomatic mistake"? Tigran Sargsyan said
so in answer to the question of a reporter during his end-of-year
press conference.
The Iranian ambassador had said that gas may cost 400 dollars for
one, and 100 dollars for another, everything depends on the result
of negotiations.
Now, was it a diplomatic mistake or, on the contrary, was it evidence
to the mistake of Armenia's policy which failed to negotiate cheap
gas with Iran?
The story of "mistakes" in the Iranian aspect dates back to 2006,
one of the biggest "mistakes" over the two decades of independence of
Armenia when Iran-Armenia pipeline was laid out but the width of the
pipe was narrow for transit and it was eventually given to Gazprom
as a gift.
Recently Iran has mentioned those "mistakes" more often. Official
Yerevan pretends not noticing them or at least avoids addressing them
in public. It is not clear what is said non-publicly but usually one
bright sunny morning the society of Armenia witnesses a public collapse
of a non-public conversation, as in the case of the Armenian-Turkish
protocols and the Eastern Partnership. This can be the case of the
Armenian-Iranian direction. Tehran was most probably worried about
this prospect, especially after September 3.
On September 3 Armenia took a step that actually disturbed
the balance in the region. Armenia's step has strengthened the
Russian-Turkish-Azerbaijani line in the South Caucasus which
is supported by Israel from time to time. Such disturbance of the
regional balance worries Tehran which may not manage to improve its
relation with the West as an alternative.
In this regard, Armenia is a key factor. However, this factor has
been handed over to Russia. The Iranian ambassador talked to the
prime minister of Armenia about energy projects while after the
gas deal Russia is not interested in any other projects aside from
gas. In this regard, Russia has already taken up and put to sleep
the project of building a new nuclear plant in Armenia while it is
building a nuclear plant in Turkey which is four times more expensive.
After gas capitulation, at least until 2043, the Armenian-Iranian
energy projects are jeopardized. And it is not accidental that Iran is
trying to find out from Yerevan what should be expected in this regard,
if one can trust Yerevan at all after what happened on September 3.
For the time being, Tehran is trying to establish contacts with
Yerevan. If no certainty is achieved, Tehran will certainly deal with
the Customs Union because Tehran cannot have the situation close to
its border. However, it will bring the Armenian-Iranian relations to
a stop.
The point is that the Armenian-Iranian relations are based on the
natural interests of the two states, not economic projects. The
interests of any other two countries in the region, even the
Turk-Azerbaijani tandem, are not in such harmony as those of Iran
and Armenia. And in this case Armenia's policy is headed not just
against a state but nature, which is very dangerous.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31910#sthash.40brPEKf.dpuf