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IF RUSSIA LAUNCHES WAR IN UKRAINE
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Monday, 24 February 2014, 17:27
Will Armenia Grant Asylum to Yanukovych?
U.S. Prevented Possible Russian Intervention In Ukraine
Member of Timoshenko's Party Elected Speaker of Rada
40 Members Defected From Ukraine's Ruling Party
Constitution Will Be Changed, Timoshenko Will Be Set Free
The United States of America has practically declared its readiness
to provide military support to Western Ukraine in case of a Russian
attempt to split Ukraine. Susan Rice, U.S. president's adviser on
national security, commenting on possible military intervention by
Russia, said it would be a grave mistake and Ukraine's split is not
in the interests of anyone, including Russia.
There is no doubt that if the eastern regions of Ukraine and Crimea
start a movement for separation, they will do it with the support or
instruction of Russia only. It would lead to armed clashes.
The United States is actually hinting that if Russia triggers
separatism in Crime or Eastern Ukraine, it will thus trigger a war,
and NATO will support Kiev then. In addition, earlier there was a
hint about that when Yanukovych decided to clamp down on Maidan. At
that time, NATO secretary general announced that intervention of the
Ukrainian army would affect the relations between NATO and Ukraine.
NATO thereby expressed its direct interest in the developments in
Ukraine, as well as its support to the Ukrainian army in case of
having no destructive role in them.
Russia avoids responsibility for the destiny of Yanukovych, which
is evidence to Moscow's awareness of the danger to provoke a war
in Ukraine.
It is not going to be Georgia where the Russian army could reach
Tbilisi in five days. Moreover, in this situation, Moscow did not
dare reach Tbilisi and oust Sahakashvili. In Ukraine Russia would
face a long and wearing war in every aspect: economic, political,
human resources. After all, it is hard to tell which part of the
population of Eastern Ukraine or Crimea would pick up guns and risk
their lives for an incomprehensible prospect. Russia will have to
feed those regions not only with guns and money but also cannon fodder.
Kremlin must be aware of this, especially provided the sincere
messages coming from the West. It is more probable that Moscow will
try to trade with the West.
There is one more important circumstance - the people of Ukraine. The
ongoing developments demonstrated that the Ukrainians have a clear
understanding of their goal, and Maidan was not a chaotic movement of
people who were dissatisfied with the government. It was not a movement
against the government. Maidan was a popular movement for power - for
the power of the people. Evidence to this is the political palette
of Maidan which had been set for one single goal to establish their
power, at least at the center of Kiev, with a specific and effective
methodology of maintaining and extending it.
Now a new stage has started. Time will show how effective this
methodology will be for the new stage or what new methodology will be
adopted for keeping Maidan from political trade. One way or another,
continuation is going to be dynamic.
In any case, the result achieved earlier is enough to take into account
the fact or argument of power of the people in international policies
on Ukraine.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31971#sthash.G6s2bONL.dpuf
Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
Comments - Monday, 24 February 2014, 17:27
Will Armenia Grant Asylum to Yanukovych?
U.S. Prevented Possible Russian Intervention In Ukraine
Member of Timoshenko's Party Elected Speaker of Rada
40 Members Defected From Ukraine's Ruling Party
Constitution Will Be Changed, Timoshenko Will Be Set Free
The United States of America has practically declared its readiness
to provide military support to Western Ukraine in case of a Russian
attempt to split Ukraine. Susan Rice, U.S. president's adviser on
national security, commenting on possible military intervention by
Russia, said it would be a grave mistake and Ukraine's split is not
in the interests of anyone, including Russia.
There is no doubt that if the eastern regions of Ukraine and Crimea
start a movement for separation, they will do it with the support or
instruction of Russia only. It would lead to armed clashes.
The United States is actually hinting that if Russia triggers
separatism in Crime or Eastern Ukraine, it will thus trigger a war,
and NATO will support Kiev then. In addition, earlier there was a
hint about that when Yanukovych decided to clamp down on Maidan. At
that time, NATO secretary general announced that intervention of the
Ukrainian army would affect the relations between NATO and Ukraine.
NATO thereby expressed its direct interest in the developments in
Ukraine, as well as its support to the Ukrainian army in case of
having no destructive role in them.
Russia avoids responsibility for the destiny of Yanukovych, which
is evidence to Moscow's awareness of the danger to provoke a war
in Ukraine.
It is not going to be Georgia where the Russian army could reach
Tbilisi in five days. Moreover, in this situation, Moscow did not
dare reach Tbilisi and oust Sahakashvili. In Ukraine Russia would
face a long and wearing war in every aspect: economic, political,
human resources. After all, it is hard to tell which part of the
population of Eastern Ukraine or Crimea would pick up guns and risk
their lives for an incomprehensible prospect. Russia will have to
feed those regions not only with guns and money but also cannon fodder.
Kremlin must be aware of this, especially provided the sincere
messages coming from the West. It is more probable that Moscow will
try to trade with the West.
There is one more important circumstance - the people of Ukraine. The
ongoing developments demonstrated that the Ukrainians have a clear
understanding of their goal, and Maidan was not a chaotic movement of
people who were dissatisfied with the government. It was not a movement
against the government. Maidan was a popular movement for power - for
the power of the people. Evidence to this is the political palette
of Maidan which had been set for one single goal to establish their
power, at least at the center of Kiev, with a specific and effective
methodology of maintaining and extending it.
Now a new stage has started. Time will show how effective this
methodology will be for the new stage or what new methodology will be
adopted for keeping Maidan from political trade. One way or another,
continuation is going to be dynamic.
In any case, the result achieved earlier is enough to take into account
the fact or argument of power of the people in international policies
on Ukraine.
- See more at:
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31971#sthash.G6s2bONL.dpuf