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Next Dangerous Deal For Armenia

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  • Next Dangerous Deal For Armenia

    NEXT DANGEROUS DEAL FOR ARMENIA

    Hakob Badalyan, Political Commentator
    Comments - Tuesday, 25 February 2014, 16:22

    After his meeting with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev in
    Sochi on February 24 Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan announced that
    they discussed Rosneft's likely investments in Armenia and listened
    to the presentation of the head of that company Sechin.

    "We listened to the presentation by the president of Rosneft Company
    Igor Sechin on their achievements and plans. Around 500 million dollars
    are envisaged to invest in Armenia. Over the next week we will have a
    substantive decision on the baseline conditions to ensure that they are
    fulfilled in the possible minimum period," Tigran Sargsyan announced.

    Following the Armenian-Russian gas deals, the so-called
    Armenian-Russian chemical deals are expected to be signed with
    Rosneft. At least, when investing 500 million dollars and creating
    the necessary conditions is concerned, one has to draw parallels with
    the gas deal. And the reason is Tigran Sargsyan's comments during
    his end-of-year press conference in 2013.

    Coming back to the gas deals, the prime minister announced that
    a company that makes big investments expects long-term guarantees
    without which no investments will be made. Tigran Sargsyan announced
    that it goes without saying, so the probability is high with Rosneft.

    In other words, Rosneft, like Gasprom, will also expect long-term
    guarantees from Armenia.

    In addition, this prospect is especially interesting in the context
    of Gazprom-Rosneft relations. The two companies are competitors. Most
    probably, Rosneft will try to keep up with Gazprom and get similar
    guarantees from Armenia.

    Hence, in fact, a situation may occur when Gazprom and Rosneft will
    share Armenia. At first sight, when two giant companies compete
    for investment conditions in Armenia, it will be beneficial for
    the economic development of Armenia. Theoretically, it is true but
    one important condition is required - state sovereignty that would
    regulate the competition of two giants. Meanwhile, Gazprom's example
    is a precedent when preconditions are imposed on Armenia that limit
    some powers of government institutions. For example, Armenia committed
    to refrain from adopting laws or resolutions that will not be in line
    with Gazprom's interest.

    Is there any guarantee that Rosneft will not require similar legal
    safeguards? In that case, it is ingenuous to consider the effect
    of competition. Moreover, there is no competition but a mechanism
    of dividing Armenia that Moscow promotes through its two economic
    giants, Rosneft and Gazprom. In other words, a change of government
    is underway in Armenia, not RPA is replaced by PAP or Serzh Sargsyan
    by Robert Kocharyan or Levon Ter-Petrosyan but official Yerevan is
    replaced by Gazprom and Rosneft.

    On the one hand, it is excellent that 500 million dollars are
    going to be invested in Armenia (if they are going to be invested
    at all). On the other hand, this investment is relative or rather
    Armenia is relative because a deal is made on investment in return for
    sovereignty. Not Armenia is going to manage and regulate the policy
    of investors but the investors are going to regulate the policy of
    Armenia. The gas agreement is evidence to this.

    To imagine the threat to national security it is enough to remember
    that both Gazprom and Rosneft have strategic interest in Turkey
    and Azerbaijan. In addition, their interest in these directions is
    not limited to the precondition of surrender of sovereignty, unlike
    Armenia. There might be dangerous implications for Armenia in case the
    two companies pursuing strategic interests in Turkey and Azerbaijan
    are tempted to use their influence on Armenia to serve their interests.

    - See more at:
    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/31976#sthash.eQFvW5Sr.dpuf


    From: Baghdasarian
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