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  • Will Yerevan Emulate Kiev?

    WILL YEREVAN EMULATE KIEV?

    EDITORIAL | MARCH 3, 2014 2:59 PM
    ________________________________

    By Edmond Y. Azadian

    If anyone tries to convince you that the Cold War is over, take that
    statement with a grain of salt. The Cold War is continuing, if not
    intensifying.

    After the collapse of the Soviet Empire, the West rushed in to fill
    the power vacuum left in the absence of a central Soviet regime, by
    engaging the newly-emancipated Eastern European countries into the
    European Union and NATO structures. It even drew the line in the sand
    for Russia after dismembering former Yugoslavia.

    In 2008, Moscow drew its own line in the sand by attacking and
    "liberating" parts of Georgia. Ukraine remained the center of a
    tug-of-war between Russia and the West, shifting allegiance at least
    three times.

    The Orange Revolution of 2004 brought to power Victor Yushchenko and
    Yulia Timoshenko, which nudged the country toward the West. By 2010,
    the erstwhile allies had become bitter enemies and during a three-way
    presidential election, former Prime Minister Victor Yanukovich won,
    shifting the country back towards Moscow.

    Thus the country teetered between the two tectonic centers of power
    until the recent revolt emerged at Kiev's Maidan, which brought down
    Yanukovich's administration.

    He had just struck a deal with the opposition, with the blessing of the
    foreign ministers of France, the UK and Poland. The agreement called
    for the revival of the 2004 constitution limiting the presidential
    powers and setting a December date for the election. The Maidan
    protestors, however, did not heed the agreement and the government
    fell. Yanukovich was deposed by the Ukrainian Rada (Parliament),
    which appointed Alexander Turchinov as interim president.

    Naturally, these developments were filtered through different and
    opposing lenses; for the West, the will of the Ukrainian people had
    won, while for the Russians, street gangs and thugs had usurped power
    through violence.

    A pivotal role was played in this transition by Arsen Avakov, minister
    of the interior, an ethnic Armenian.

    There is no doubt that the tug-of-war will continue. Susan Rice,
    President Obama's national security chief, has warned Moscow against
    any military intervention.

    Ukraine is a vast country with a population of 46 million. Seventy
    percent of its trade is with Russia. There is a precedent that Moscow
    has interrupted the flow of gas to Ukraine when things did not go to
    its liking.

    The eastern regions of the country are the most industrialized and
    are populated by Russian-speaking and Russophile Ukrainians, who have
    already been agitating. The Crimean peninsula, birthplace of Hovhannes
    Aivazovsky, by the way, is predominantly populated by Russians.

    Incidentally, while former Politburo member Heydar Aliyev accused
    any Armenian who sought the return of Karabagh and Nakhichevan
    as reactionary and nationalist, Nikita Khrushchov, an ethnic
    Ukrainian, annexed Crimea to Ukraine in 1954 and no one accused him
    of nationalism. Of course, at that time, border adjustments within
    the Soviet Union did not have the same political significance as they
    will have today because the Russian Black Sea fleet is based in Crimea.

    A hostile neighbor with a potential of joining NATO will certainly
    irritate policy planners in Moscow, compelling them to take remedial
    action now before any further deterioration of the situation. That
    reaction may lead the country into a partition.

    Political analyst Igor Muradian believes that "there will
    be actual federalization while maintaining Ukraine as a single
    internationally-recognized state and at the same time, the issue of the
    state budget, utilities and mobility of the people, foreign relations,
    army and law enforcement agencies will be addressed. At the same time,
    the process of separating Crimea from Ukraine will begin, which is
    apparently inevitable."

    There are striking parallels between Ukraine and Armenia, especially
    since both made their U-turn to join Russia's Customs Union, at the
    same time interrupting their negotiations with the EU, ostensibly
    under Russian pressure.

    Before these events, Moscow had pledged $15 billion worth of aid to
    Ukraine. Now the new leaders believe that Ukraine needs $60-70 billion
    to avoid an economic collapse, it is doubtful if Moscow will abide
    by its early pledge. The US and EU have made some vague promises,
    which may or may not meet the expectations of the new leaders.

    In Armenia, there is no love lost for the Russians who are increasingly
    treating the country in a cavalier manner. Armenian political groups
    organized a solidarity unit with Maidan and even travelled to Kiev
    to support the protestors.

    Political pundits are comparing the March 1, 2008 Armenian
    demonstrations which claimed 10 lives with Kiev's Maidan.

    All opposition parties are wishing and trying to enact the repeat
    performance of Maidan in Armenia. Fortunately, or unfortunately,
    the opposition is so splintered that no two groups can agree on
    any common ground. The well-oiled media is entirely financed by
    foreign governments and agencies and they are trying hard to incite
    anti-Russian sentiments. Armenia's well-being is the least of their
    worries. They finance the media for their own selfish purposes. Many
    starving journalists are serving these foreign agencies for their
    own survival, oblivious of their cumulative impact on the fate of
    the country.

    Any veteran or novice in politics there begins his rhetoric with calls
    for regime change. But modern history has demonstrated time and again
    that any change will only rout one set of oligarchs and bring new
    ones to power.

    Corruption is endemic in all former Soviet republics. No country in
    the region can remain sanitized as long as they continue their former
    economic and business relations with each other.

    Georgia, the most Western-oriented state in the Caucasus, had trumpeted
    loudly that it had eradicated corruption under Mikheil Saakashvili,
    that the rule of law had become paramount. Former Prime Minister
    Bidzina Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream Party rose to power, and last
    week former Prime Minister Ivane Merabishvili was sentence to a
    five-year prison term for corruption.

    The Orange Revolution had catapulted Yulia Timoshenko to power in
    Ukraine and she landed in jail for corruption. Even Greece, the cradle
    of democracy and civilization, and a member of the European Union,
    is plagued with corruption. This means that association with Europe
    alone is not a panacea.

    Corruption is a genuine cause for concern in Armenia. It has to be
    criticized. It has to be eradicated, but only for its own sake so that
    the lives of its people improve and not in order to feed the agenda
    of foreign powers who have a vested interest in Armenia without a
    strong central government.

    Events in Ukraine shook the world and its echoes reverberate more
    in Armenia, having the same predicament. But a repeat performance of
    Maidan will only bring chaos.

    - See more at:
    http://www.mirrorspectator.com/2014/03/03/will-yerevan-emulate-kiev/#sthash.MbWodI7K.dpuf



    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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