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Crimea Russia's Artsakh

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  • Crimea Russia's Artsakh

    CRIMEA RUSSIA'S ARTSAKH

    Editorial, 23 March 2014

    For more than two decades Artsakh's fate has hinged on
    two contradictory international principles: the territorial
    integrity of states versus the inviolable right of people for
    self-determination. These two key principles are enshrined in the
    United Nations charter and in a number of fundamental international
    documents. Armenians don't see a contradiction in the two schools of
    thought when it comes to the status of Artsakh because they believe
    that since Artsakh was illegally given to Azerbaijan, by Joseph Stalin
    in the early '20s, the territorial inviolability of Azerbaijan did
    not apply when the Armenians of Artsakh declared independence. They
    were merely exercising their right of self-determination.

    Thus when Russian-speaking Crimeans opted for self-determination
    and joined Russia, President Serge Sarkissian of Armenia recognized
    the Crimean referendum within a few days. And even if Armenia hadn't
    believed in the principle of a people's right to self-determination
    or there was no Artsakh issue, Armenia had no choice but to accede
    to Vladimir Putin's wishes. That Armenia is dependent on Moscow
    militarily, politically, and economically is no secret, especially
    to neighboring countries such as Ukraine. Thus Kiev's high dudgeon
    against Armenia is ingenuous.

    Soon after Sarkissian recognized the Crimean referendum to join
    Russia, Kiev recalled its ambassadors from Yerevan and threatened
    Ukraine/Armenia relations were about to go south. One would have
    thought Kiev authorities, aware of Armenia's circumstances and of
    the centuries of friendship between the two people's would have
    been more circumspect in their condemnation. When Kazakhstanâ?"a
    much-stronger state than Armenia and a Turkic country in sympathy
    with the Crimean Tatarsâ?"recognized the results of the referendum,
    why would Ukraine pick on tiny Armenia? As well, Kiev should remember
    that despite Ukraine's weapons sales to Azerbaijan, a country which
    regularly threatens to invade Armenia, Yerevan did not complain,
    let alone recall its ambassador from Ukraine.

    It's too early to determine whether the Crimea development would
    buttress Artsakh's assertion of people's right to self-determination,
    particularly when so much of international politics depends on who
    has the power to get what it wants. Russia can recognize Artsakh in a
    jiffy and cite the principle of self-determination. But since Russia is
    concerned in NATO's courtship of Baku, it sees no benefit in alienating
    Azerbaijan to please Armenia, a small country dependent on Moscow.

    The West will play similar games of self-interest: It backed
    self-determination in Kosovo justifiably expecting that the
    mini-state would be a Western puppet and a constant irritant
    to hostile-to-the-West Serbia. Since an independent Artsakh or an
    Artsakh united with Armenia is of no perceived benefit to the West,
    it would let Artsakh's remain in suspended animation.

    Whether Artsakh becomes independent or joins Armenia depends on Baku,
    but not in a martial sense. If Baku decides to go to bed with the West,
    Russia will at first try to abort that plan. If it fails, it will give
    up on the Azerbaijan's rulers and punish them be recognizing Artsakh.

    The story line might also change if Russian/European Union commercial
    relations go into deep freeze and Germany, France, et al begin to
    look for an alternative source for natural gas which they now buy from
    Russia. A new natural gas source might be the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey
    pipeline. But the Azeri wells are now shallower than they were believed
    to be a few years ago. Would the Europeans invest billions of dollars
    when the well might go dry in ten to 15 years? A much richer source
    is Iran. It has the second-biggest proven natural gas sources. But
    Iran is in the bad books of the West, particularly that of the United
    States. If Iran and the West make peace, Iranian fuel can be exported
    to Europe through Syria's Mediterranean ports. If Iran and the West
    make peace, Saudi Arabia and Qatar would halt their support of the
    extremist Sunnis who want to topple Assad of Syria.

    The next six months would be as unpredictable and suspenseful as a
    chess match between two grandmasters. In this case the chess board is
    three dimensional and the players a dozen or more. Armenia will be
    a pawn in the match, but being a pawn isn't necessarily a bad thing
    when you are on the side which says "Check mate."

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