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  • Erdogan's victory a warning to West

    Al-Monitor
    April 6 2014

    Erdogan's victory a warning to West

    Posted April 6, 2014


    Despite the corruption allegations, Twitter ban and seemingly
    incriminating leaked tapes, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
    Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) won approximately 44% of
    the popular vote in municipal elections on March 30, according to the
    official tally.

    Summary?' Print Despite his party's win in the municipal elections, the
    Turkish prime minister's policies, including toward Syria, are likely
    to lead to further political polarization and distance from the United
    States and Europe.
    Author Week in ReviewPosted April 6, 2014

    Erdogan's victory speech offered no olive branches or open hands. It
    was instead a clenched fist. The prime minister's remarks conveyed his
    sense of righteous vindication and included a warning to his political
    opponents that `we will enter their lair. ¦ They are going to pay the
    price.'

    As Cengiz Candar writes: `Among the difficult-to-forget moments of
    election night were Erdogan's emergence onto the balcony, waving his
    hands and raising the four-finger salute of support for the Egyptian
    Muslim Brotherhood and his declaring the situation between Turkey and
    Syria a `state of war' (which, of course, had nothing to do with
    international law).'

    Candar and most analysts expect Erdogan to be even more emboldened to
    make a presidential run in elections scheduled for August 2014, while
    launching a public vendetta against the Gulen movement, which Erdogan
    blames for the corruption allegations and leaks.

    Even though Erdogan said his government would comply with the decision
    of Turkey's Communications Directorate (TIB) on April 3 to lift the
    nearly two-week ban on Twitter, the prime minister added that `I don't
    respect' the decision.

    Mustafa Akyol explains that Erdogan `keeps winning' because he has
    fashioned an unprecedented coalition between Turkey's Islamic right
    and center-right factions. The secular-right Republican People's Party
    (CHP) is still held in low regard because of some of its previous
    anti-Islamic excesses, although it is trying to change under the
    leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu. One of the CHP's stars, Mansur
    Yavas, is contesting the results for mayor of Ankara, as Tulin Daloglu
    reports.

    Akyol considers Erdogan well-positioned for a presidential run, if he
    goes for it, and concludes: `The bottom line is that Erdogan keeps
    winning Turkey's ballots, and he is not likely to lose anytime soon.
    Yet, while these persistent victories make the pro-Erdogan camp happy
    and cheerful, it makes the rest ' almost the other half of society '
    desperate, angry and resentful. That is why Turkey will be prone to
    more polarization, if not instability, should Erdogan not take steps
    to win the hearts and minds of his opponents and aim for a national
    reconciliation.'

    Barin Karaoglu writes that the elections are more of the same dismal
    trend in Turkish politics. The CHP has been unable to score an
    electoral upset, and the prime minister has compromised people's faith
    in political institutions, while poisoning the prospects for
    compromise between parties. The country, and society, are more
    polarized than ever.

    Erdogan's approach to Syria could add to the further political
    turbulence. His victory speech included a proclamation of a `state of
    war.' But there is a cloud around his declaration. The leaked tape, if
    true, implies a `wag the dog' scenario where Turkey would consider
    sparking a provocation with Syria over the Tomb of Suleiman Shah ' 24
    miles inside Syria, but claimed by Turkey. The Islamic State of Iraq
    and al-Sham (ISIS) has threatened the tomb, but the official Turkish
    line is that ISIS is in a `behind the curtains' alliance with the
    Syrian government, according to Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet
    Davutoglu.

    The leaked tape followed the Turkish shooting down of a Syrian jet on
    March 23, which Al-Monitor's Kadri Gursel writes many considered to
    have been linked to domestic politics and the election campaign.

    Amberin Zaman reports this week from Hatay province that the agitation
    along the Turkish border has only heightened anxiety and sectarian
    tensions, with Alawite residents in this mixed community saying that
    Turkey supports Islamist rebels and may be seeking a provocation with
    Syria.

    It is worth noting that Davutoglu, who attended the NATO Summit in
    Brussels this week, presented no evidence of a Syrian threat to
    Turkey, as Tulin Daloglu reports.

    As Semih Idiz writes, the fall of the Syrian village of Kassab to
    Islamist rebel forces led by Jabhat al-Nusra is adding to Turkey's
    fractured ties with the West:

    `Attacks against the Armenian community in the Syrian town of Kassab
    by the jihadist Jabhat al-Nusra group, which the Erdogan government is
    accused of supporting ' an issue that has already been taken up in the
    [US] House of Representatives ' could also fuel tensions between
    Washington and Ankara. Another development that will have angered
    Erdogan and his supporters was an inquiry ordered by British Prime
    Minister David Cameron into the activities of the Muslim Brotherhood,
    which has resulted in speculation that the group could be banned in
    Britain. Erdogan is a strong supporter of the Brotherhood, of which
    many consider the AKP to be an honorary member.'

    Kassab has now become a cause celebre for the Armenian diaspora, as
    Pinar Tremblay writes, provoking responses from the US State
    Department and members of Congress. Tremblay also reminds readers that
    Erdogan's Syria policies are generally considered a failure, are
    unpopular with most Turks and have been the focus of demonstrations in
    the country, mostly unreported in the Western media.

    Although Turkey is experiencing blowback from terrorists for its
    failed Syria policies, for some reason the Turkish government has not
    yet been compelled to shut down its borders to the traffic in
    terrorists and arms that seem to enter Turkey with impunity. Kassab
    may now spark a more intensive US focus on Turkey's role, and the
    seemingly fantastical notion of an Assad-ISIS alliance as an excuse
    for Turkish military intervention probably won't cut it, as the
    humanitarian and terrorist situation worsens by the hour for Syria and
    its neighbors.

    As this column has argued several times, the new pulse of Geneva II is
    toward a focus on facilitating humanitarian and counterterrorism
    cooperation, both regionally and internationally. Turkey does itself
    and the region no service by resisting this trend. Its role should be
    as a leader in these areas, not by pursuing discredited and failing
    policies to drag it and its allies further into the war in Syria.

    And there are already divisions between Erdogan and Turkish President
    Abdullah Gul on Syria and other issues, including the bans on social
    media. As this column said last week:

    `The question will be whether President Abdullah Gul, who has already
    gently yet clearly distanced himself from Erdogan on Syria, social
    media controls and other issues (as has been reported by Al-Monitor),
    may consider taking a stand on those actions of the prime minister
    which are dividing and destabilizing Turkey. If Gul takes such a
    stand, then attention will be on the reaction of the United States and
    Europe, which are seemingly running out of patience with the prime
    minister's erosion of Turkey's democratic institutions.'

    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/04/erdogan-victory-turkey-warning-west-nato.html




    From: A. Papazian
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