Tweet
Decision On Russia Made: Ruling Elite Should Be Changed
Roza Hovhannisyan, Reporter
Interview - Friday, 02 May 2014, 17:32
Mr. Yeghiazaryan, the West is toughening sanctions on Russia. What
developments do you foresee in the nearest future?
>From the geopolitical and economic point of view, the following took
place -- a few years ago the Russian experts insisted that Russia role
is containment of Chinese expansion towards west. However, soon it
became clear that Russia is too weak to fulfill this function. In
fact, Russia has even failed to keep Central Asia under control where
the Chinese have actually ousted Russia from all the spheres of life.
Today Central Asia is increasingly dependent on China, and the Chinese
may go further ahead towards west. Russia with its current status
favors Chinese expansion. There seems to be a decision to develop new
mechanisms for Russia as such Russia is not feasible and new
mechanisms are needed to give Russia a new status. In this context,
the ruling regime in Russia felt ignored, understood that as a partner
he means nothing to the United States and Europe and started
initiating reactive projects, such as the Eurasian project. In answer
to this he actually got what is happening today.
Most probably, the goal is to change the ruling regime in Russia and
form new elites with a new status in the relationship with the West.
It is possible that the regional elites will be activated in the
territory of Russia. On the whole, the spot nature of sanctions is
about this because sanctions are imposed on companies controlled by
Putin's entourage.
At the same time, initiatives by the West are noticed to sign new
agreements with Russia under better conditions, which is increasingly
realistic due to Russia's weakening. For example, the latest agreement
on the South Stream signed between the Austrian company and Gazprom.
It is possible, of course, that the agreement will be revised in the
future or not implemented at all, which means that now more
concessions could be squeezed out of Russia because Russia is getting
weaker. In addition, they are trying to form new elites in Russia at
the same time. In this regard, the general conclusion will be that a
process of shaping a Russia with a new quality and a status lower than
the previous one is starting or rather a process in the territory of
Russia the ultimate goal of which should be creation of mechanisms,
economic relations that suppose new mechanisms of distribution of
income in favor of the major Western companies, not the ruling regime
and the Russian side. Those are new mechanisms of subjection, a new
status for Russia in international relations, which will allow the
West to fight better against Chinese expansion in the future.
The flow of capital from the Russian economy is growing. What will the
consequences be?
The general economic decline means that the Russian ruling regime's
income will drop in some sectors, sanctions are aimed at weakening
Russia's economy. The assessments of international rating companies,
the general situation will keep Russia from investment projects.
Certainly, fears occur about the capital that has already been
invested which is starting to flow out of Russia. In other words, this
background altogether promotes weakening of Russian economy in all the
sectors.
It is very easy to reduce the Russian economy to such a status
because, as you know, it is weak in term of structure and depends
heavily on production and exports of raw materials. Ostensibly, the
first stage is flow of capital, in the second stage Russia will be
ousted from global markets. At least, the countries and companies
which implement sanctions against Russia headed by Washington will try
to oust Russia out of world markets. If development finally harms the
energy sectors, Russia's oil revenues will drop.
Several scenarios are possible. Now a lot is being said about the
scenario of dropping prices of oil but as of today a different
scenario may be implemented. Oil production in some parts may be
boosted, at the same time imposing sanctions on exports of Russian
oil. Simply oil experts from Russia may decrease. If oil exports
decrease, it will hit the budget and the overall economy. However, it
will happen gradually. At the same time, elites will be formed in
Russia.
Since Russia is one of Armenia's key trade partners, how will the
situation of the country affect exports from Armenia?
The structure of exports from Armenia is not good quality. Half of
products exported from Armenia are drinks. Our exports may be affected
by two factors, dropping rate of the ruble and lower income of buyers
of Armenian cognac. It is hard to give precise numbers but the
background is not favorable for exports.
Consequently, it is meaningless to talk about Russian investments. For
instance, Rosneft had announced a major investment project in Nairit.
How realistic is this?
Russian investments have not been probable over the past years.
Russian investments have been made in those sectors where they were
probable: transport, energy and communication. There are no
expectations of the projects concerned. There are no expectations of
Russian investments in nuclear power, transport and energy. As to
Nairit and other projects, those have always been unrealistic and
there is no need to talk about them at all. Hence, it is meaningless
to expect Russian investments, especially now.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/interview/view/32369#sthash.Gq7Ee6tS.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian
Roza Hovhannisyan, Reporter
Interview - Friday, 02 May 2014, 17:32
Mr. Yeghiazaryan, the West is toughening sanctions on Russia. What
developments do you foresee in the nearest future?
>From the geopolitical and economic point of view, the following took
place -- a few years ago the Russian experts insisted that Russia role
is containment of Chinese expansion towards west. However, soon it
became clear that Russia is too weak to fulfill this function. In
fact, Russia has even failed to keep Central Asia under control where
the Chinese have actually ousted Russia from all the spheres of life.
Today Central Asia is increasingly dependent on China, and the Chinese
may go further ahead towards west. Russia with its current status
favors Chinese expansion. There seems to be a decision to develop new
mechanisms for Russia as such Russia is not feasible and new
mechanisms are needed to give Russia a new status. In this context,
the ruling regime in Russia felt ignored, understood that as a partner
he means nothing to the United States and Europe and started
initiating reactive projects, such as the Eurasian project. In answer
to this he actually got what is happening today.
Most probably, the goal is to change the ruling regime in Russia and
form new elites with a new status in the relationship with the West.
It is possible that the regional elites will be activated in the
territory of Russia. On the whole, the spot nature of sanctions is
about this because sanctions are imposed on companies controlled by
Putin's entourage.
At the same time, initiatives by the West are noticed to sign new
agreements with Russia under better conditions, which is increasingly
realistic due to Russia's weakening. For example, the latest agreement
on the South Stream signed between the Austrian company and Gazprom.
It is possible, of course, that the agreement will be revised in the
future or not implemented at all, which means that now more
concessions could be squeezed out of Russia because Russia is getting
weaker. In addition, they are trying to form new elites in Russia at
the same time. In this regard, the general conclusion will be that a
process of shaping a Russia with a new quality and a status lower than
the previous one is starting or rather a process in the territory of
Russia the ultimate goal of which should be creation of mechanisms,
economic relations that suppose new mechanisms of distribution of
income in favor of the major Western companies, not the ruling regime
and the Russian side. Those are new mechanisms of subjection, a new
status for Russia in international relations, which will allow the
West to fight better against Chinese expansion in the future.
The flow of capital from the Russian economy is growing. What will the
consequences be?
The general economic decline means that the Russian ruling regime's
income will drop in some sectors, sanctions are aimed at weakening
Russia's economy. The assessments of international rating companies,
the general situation will keep Russia from investment projects.
Certainly, fears occur about the capital that has already been
invested which is starting to flow out of Russia. In other words, this
background altogether promotes weakening of Russian economy in all the
sectors.
It is very easy to reduce the Russian economy to such a status
because, as you know, it is weak in term of structure and depends
heavily on production and exports of raw materials. Ostensibly, the
first stage is flow of capital, in the second stage Russia will be
ousted from global markets. At least, the countries and companies
which implement sanctions against Russia headed by Washington will try
to oust Russia out of world markets. If development finally harms the
energy sectors, Russia's oil revenues will drop.
Several scenarios are possible. Now a lot is being said about the
scenario of dropping prices of oil but as of today a different
scenario may be implemented. Oil production in some parts may be
boosted, at the same time imposing sanctions on exports of Russian
oil. Simply oil experts from Russia may decrease. If oil exports
decrease, it will hit the budget and the overall economy. However, it
will happen gradually. At the same time, elites will be formed in
Russia.
Since Russia is one of Armenia's key trade partners, how will the
situation of the country affect exports from Armenia?
The structure of exports from Armenia is not good quality. Half of
products exported from Armenia are drinks. Our exports may be affected
by two factors, dropping rate of the ruble and lower income of buyers
of Armenian cognac. It is hard to give precise numbers but the
background is not favorable for exports.
Consequently, it is meaningless to talk about Russian investments. For
instance, Rosneft had announced a major investment project in Nairit.
How realistic is this?
Russian investments have not been probable over the past years.
Russian investments have been made in those sectors where they were
probable: transport, energy and communication. There are no
expectations of the projects concerned. There are no expectations of
Russian investments in nuclear power, transport and energy. As to
Nairit and other projects, those have always been unrealistic and
there is no need to talk about them at all. Hence, it is meaningless
to expect Russian investments, especially now.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/interview/view/32369#sthash.Gq7Ee6tS.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian