Tweet
Ukraine: War Scenario Ready
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Tuesday, 29 April 2014, 12:32
The Russian-Ukrainian war will be called `war out of one signature'.
In fact, V. Putin and company will regret hundreds of times for not
allowing Yanukovych to put his `criminal' signature under the
agreement with the European Union. But the ice moved, and there is no
place to retreat otherwise the reputation of the loser intelligence
officer sitting in the Kremlin will be ruined.
As to prospects of domestic policies in Ukraine, they are already
outlining. The real hostess of Ukraine Yulia Timoshenko will obviously
lose the upcoming election and she may try to thwart the election. In
fact, she does not have so many levers to influence the situation that
she may seem to have. Pyotor Poroshenko is the favorite. The iron lady
is too closely associated with different scandals and suspicious
turns, partly done quite professionally.
The Ukrainian society is fed up and everyone knows that Pyotr
Poroshenko is the key sponsor and inspirer of Maidan who is not
associated with any obvious criminality, he is a moderate man in
politics, not greedy and capable of a compromise both in business and
politics. P. Poroshenko's rating is twice as higher as Timoshenko's
rating, and the gap is likely to grow. Yulia Timoshenko's main bid is
the ability to agree with people in the southeast, which will hardly
work out this time.
Personalities and politicians do not matter, the developments have
taken a serious turn. A new `Afghanistan' was set out for Russia, and
it readily and childishly jumped at the bait. A large-scale war with
heavy artillery, armored cars and air force, as well as big brigades
of troops is expected on both sides. The southeastern territories of
Ukraine are highly urbanized with intensive town development, a dense
population, a number of explosive objects, including metallurgical and
chemical industries and coal mines.
The southeastern territories are not exclusively populated by Russias,
they have a mixed population with the majority of population of urban
areas being Ukrainians. In addition, there are no grounds to claim
that this Ukrainian population is highly russified. Ukrainian
nationalism is quite strong in the southeastern territories.
There will be a war, not a conflict, which will first be localized at
some hotbeds and acquire a frontal configuration in the course of
time. The front line will shift abruptly, but often inertly, with a
low speed, and it will be mostly similar to the wars in Lebanon or
Syria. If the Russians are able to exercise control on more or less
vast territories, the Ukrainians will form big groups of guerilla
warriors and underground militants, preferring a large-scale commando
war.
The situation will change, and the industries, power plants and
infrastructures will lose their value to the Ukrainians. The big
plants will be blown up, the mines and facilities with huge amounts of
chemicals and explosives will be set to fire. One can already hear one
say likely to destroy outstanding monuments and buildings, such as the
Opera Theater of Odessa which would change dramatically the face and
essence of this wonderful city.
For their part, the Russians threaten to destroy the ammonium pipeline
running to the Yuzhniy port which has a great export importance to
Ukraine. Most probably, the international community will demand
transferring control on the NPPs of Ukraine to the UN peacekeepers. As
to human losses, they will amount to tens of thousands and up.
Most importantly, however, there will be millions of first Russian,
then Ukrainian refugees, from 5 to 7 million. Of course, this huge
flow of refugees will move to Russia, which will lead to a
humanitarian catastrophe. No other country besides Russia is able to
accept and naturalize so many refugees, mostly urban dwellers.
The governments of Ukraine and Russia will use this process to
strengthen their foothold. However, these tricks will last for not
more than two or three years, and it is quite possible to shatter the
government in Moscow and eventually the federal structure of Russia.
These developments may provoke armed and political conflicts in the
ethnic regions of Russia, including serious conflicts in Tataria,
Bashkortostan and Dagestan. Apparently, there will be unrest all over
the North Caucasus. It should be noted that 4-5 million ethnic
Ukrainians live in Russia, and most of them will not be indifferent to
the fate of their homeland, especially considering that there are a
lot of Ukrainians in the Russian army, among officers.
What are the logical and time frames of these conflicts? Apparently,
the conflict will be mitigated only when the ethnic borders of areas
populated by Ukrainians and Russians in the infamous regions are
defined. Ukraine has no reason to stop the war and leave millions of
Russians in its rear. They will try to finish up the job and form
`ethnically clean' regions and the entire territory of Ukraine.
But what will be the main outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Most probably, a final ethnic and political, or rather national
self-determination of both the Ukrainians and the Russians will take
place, and eventually two peoples will understand that though they are
closely related, they are very different, and it is time to figure out
the real history, language, self-identity and forget about myths that
led to a tragedy of our times.
However, this is for the future, possibly not in the nearest future.
And while a new `Afghanistan' is awaiting Russia where it will get
stuck for several years and where it has been dragged into by
patriotic oligarchic groups which have declared themselves a
legitimate government whose spiritual accessories have been confirmed
by the hierarchs of the Russian Orthodox Church at the Savior Christ
cathedral.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32356#sthash.botZBvCU.dpuf
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - Tuesday, 29 April 2014, 12:32
The Russian-Ukrainian war will be called `war out of one signature'.
In fact, V. Putin and company will regret hundreds of times for not
allowing Yanukovych to put his `criminal' signature under the
agreement with the European Union. But the ice moved, and there is no
place to retreat otherwise the reputation of the loser intelligence
officer sitting in the Kremlin will be ruined.
As to prospects of domestic policies in Ukraine, they are already
outlining. The real hostess of Ukraine Yulia Timoshenko will obviously
lose the upcoming election and she may try to thwart the election. In
fact, she does not have so many levers to influence the situation that
she may seem to have. Pyotor Poroshenko is the favorite. The iron lady
is too closely associated with different scandals and suspicious
turns, partly done quite professionally.
The Ukrainian society is fed up and everyone knows that Pyotr
Poroshenko is the key sponsor and inspirer of Maidan who is not
associated with any obvious criminality, he is a moderate man in
politics, not greedy and capable of a compromise both in business and
politics. P. Poroshenko's rating is twice as higher as Timoshenko's
rating, and the gap is likely to grow. Yulia Timoshenko's main bid is
the ability to agree with people in the southeast, which will hardly
work out this time.
Personalities and politicians do not matter, the developments have
taken a serious turn. A new `Afghanistan' was set out for Russia, and
it readily and childishly jumped at the bait. A large-scale war with
heavy artillery, armored cars and air force, as well as big brigades
of troops is expected on both sides. The southeastern territories of
Ukraine are highly urbanized with intensive town development, a dense
population, a number of explosive objects, including metallurgical and
chemical industries and coal mines.
The southeastern territories are not exclusively populated by Russias,
they have a mixed population with the majority of population of urban
areas being Ukrainians. In addition, there are no grounds to claim
that this Ukrainian population is highly russified. Ukrainian
nationalism is quite strong in the southeastern territories.
There will be a war, not a conflict, which will first be localized at
some hotbeds and acquire a frontal configuration in the course of
time. The front line will shift abruptly, but often inertly, with a
low speed, and it will be mostly similar to the wars in Lebanon or
Syria. If the Russians are able to exercise control on more or less
vast territories, the Ukrainians will form big groups of guerilla
warriors and underground militants, preferring a large-scale commando
war.
The situation will change, and the industries, power plants and
infrastructures will lose their value to the Ukrainians. The big
plants will be blown up, the mines and facilities with huge amounts of
chemicals and explosives will be set to fire. One can already hear one
say likely to destroy outstanding monuments and buildings, such as the
Opera Theater of Odessa which would change dramatically the face and
essence of this wonderful city.
For their part, the Russians threaten to destroy the ammonium pipeline
running to the Yuzhniy port which has a great export importance to
Ukraine. Most probably, the international community will demand
transferring control on the NPPs of Ukraine to the UN peacekeepers. As
to human losses, they will amount to tens of thousands and up.
Most importantly, however, there will be millions of first Russian,
then Ukrainian refugees, from 5 to 7 million. Of course, this huge
flow of refugees will move to Russia, which will lead to a
humanitarian catastrophe. No other country besides Russia is able to
accept and naturalize so many refugees, mostly urban dwellers.
The governments of Ukraine and Russia will use this process to
strengthen their foothold. However, these tricks will last for not
more than two or three years, and it is quite possible to shatter the
government in Moscow and eventually the federal structure of Russia.
These developments may provoke armed and political conflicts in the
ethnic regions of Russia, including serious conflicts in Tataria,
Bashkortostan and Dagestan. Apparently, there will be unrest all over
the North Caucasus. It should be noted that 4-5 million ethnic
Ukrainians live in Russia, and most of them will not be indifferent to
the fate of their homeland, especially considering that there are a
lot of Ukrainians in the Russian army, among officers.
What are the logical and time frames of these conflicts? Apparently,
the conflict will be mitigated only when the ethnic borders of areas
populated by Ukrainians and Russians in the infamous regions are
defined. Ukraine has no reason to stop the war and leave millions of
Russians in its rear. They will try to finish up the job and form
`ethnically clean' regions and the entire territory of Ukraine.
But what will be the main outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Most probably, a final ethnic and political, or rather national
self-determination of both the Ukrainians and the Russians will take
place, and eventually two peoples will understand that though they are
closely related, they are very different, and it is time to figure out
the real history, language, self-identity and forget about myths that
led to a tragedy of our times.
However, this is for the future, possibly not in the nearest future.
And while a new `Afghanistan' is awaiting Russia where it will get
stuck for several years and where it has been dragged into by
patriotic oligarchic groups which have declared themselves a
legitimate government whose spiritual accessories have been confirmed
by the hierarchs of the Russian Orthodox Church at the Savior Christ
cathedral.
- See more at: http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/32356#sthash.botZBvCU.dpuf
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress