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'NORMALIZATION WITH ARMENIA HOSTAGE TO TURKISH DOMESTIC POLITICS'
Cihan News Agency, Turkey
May 14 2014
ISTANBUL - 14.05.2014 19:44:45
The normalization of relations between estranged neighbors Turkey
and Armenia is hostage to Turkish domestic politics, said Richard
Giragosian, founding director of the Yerevan-based independent think
tank Regional Studies Center (RSC), on Tuesday.
According to Giragosian, a recent statement from Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan regarding the 1915 killings of Armenians in eastern
Anatolia, in which he extended condolences from Turkey to Armenians
for the first time in the history of the Turkish Republic, has raised
expectations internationally. He said the Armenian side is waiting
for more tangible and concrete steps from Erdogan rather than words
and gestures of good will.
"At the heart of the matter, the flowery language in the April 23
statement of Erdogan was designed to make him look more presidential,
with a softer political image. In other words, it was designed to
emphasize Erdogan's [presence] more than Turkish President Abdullah
Gul in the eyes of the public. It also aimed to change the view of
the international community [concerning] Erdogan," Giragosian said
in an exclusive interview with Today's Zaman in Yerevan on Tuesday.
Welcoming Erdogan's 1915 statement, Giragosian noted that it was very
significant in terms of its diverse audience. "Beside the international
community, the Armenian diaspora and the Armenian government, the
most important target of Erdogan's statement was Turkish domestic
politics," he added.
Giragosian also said that normalizing ties with Armenia is something
Turkey wants to do once Erdogan has becomes the president of Turkey.
"The strategy of the Turkish side toward Armenia is related to domestic
politics in the country. Whether this strategy will work or not is
another issue," he said.
Touching upon the 100th anniversary of the 1915 tragedy, which
Armenians say amounts to genocide, he said the Turkish side was
exaggerating the importance of the year 2015 to be greater than it
actually need be. "This is a psychological burden created by Turkey
in terms of making the year 2015 a big issue. Turkey overreacting to
the anniversary will only make the issue a bigger one," he said.
--Turkey's 'three-plan strategy' towards Armenia for 2017
He also noted that Turkey is working on a "three-plan strategy"
with regards to Armenia for the year 2017.
"The first plan is to accredit a key representative to Armenia,
like Turkish Ambassador to Georgia Levent Gumrukcu. The second
[would be to] make the unofficial diplomatic relations official; if
an ambassadorial accreditation [cannot be made], then consulate-level
relations could be established. If that does not work, perhaps [the]
third plan is a Swiss mediation between Turkey and Armenia, which is
actually a more realistic plan," Giragosian said.
He also said that rather than opening the closed border between
Turkey and Armenia, the Turkish side could establish two border
crossing points in which goods can pass from one and the other can
be used for tourism. Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993
in solidarity with Azerbaijan after Yerevan and Baku clashed over
the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Giragosian said that when compared to previous years, there was
sincerity and good will on both sides regarding the normalization. He
added that the Armenian side has learned lots of lessons from a
historic reconciliation process launched in 2009 and that Turkey
should also take action according to it. The two sides signed twin
protocols to normalize diplomatic relations, but the move was not
well received by Azerbaijan. The protocols, signed in Zurich, shook
Turkish-Azerbaijani relations, and the Nagorno-Karabakh territorial
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has yet to be resolved.
-- For Turkey, having good ties with Armenia 'low-hanging fruit'
Giragosian noted that Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's
visit to Yerevan last December was not the first time a Turkish
foreign minister had visited the capital, but he said it was a very
significant one.
"It was a clear indication of Turkish willingness toward Armenia.
Today, the door between the two countries is closed, but it is
not locked, and much effort is not needed to reopen that door,"
Giragosian said.
According to the analyst, Armenia is low-hanging fruit for Turkey, and
if the latter were to want normalization, it could be an easy victory.
He also added that a letter from Gul to his Armenian counterpart,
Serzh Sarksyan, was followed by Davutoglu's visit. "It is not public
knowledge, but there is a standing invitation from Gul to meet with
his Armenian counterpart," Giragosian said.
-- Russia manipulated Kessab issue, fooled Armenians
There were several reports claiming that a recent attack by Syrian
opposition forces on the ethnically Armenian town of Kessab in northern
Syria was facilitated by the Turkish government.
Giragosian said it was Russia that actively promoted and provoked
the Kessab issue and led Armenians to believe that there was some
kind of Turkish hand in the problem.
"What is interesting about the Kessab issue is that it demonstrates the
inherited mistrust between Armenia and Turkey. When we look closely
at the issue, we see that the Armenian side was fooled into reacting
immediately and emotionally, putting the blame on Turkey. ...
I believe this was manipulated by Russia," Giragosian said.
(Cihan/Today's Zamamn)
http://en.cihan.com.tr/news/-Normalization-with-Armenia-hostage-to-Turkish-domestic-politics-_2428-CHMTQzMjQyOC80
Cihan News Agency, Turkey
May 14 2014
ISTANBUL - 14.05.2014 19:44:45
The normalization of relations between estranged neighbors Turkey
and Armenia is hostage to Turkish domestic politics, said Richard
Giragosian, founding director of the Yerevan-based independent think
tank Regional Studies Center (RSC), on Tuesday.
According to Giragosian, a recent statement from Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan regarding the 1915 killings of Armenians in eastern
Anatolia, in which he extended condolences from Turkey to Armenians
for the first time in the history of the Turkish Republic, has raised
expectations internationally. He said the Armenian side is waiting
for more tangible and concrete steps from Erdogan rather than words
and gestures of good will.
"At the heart of the matter, the flowery language in the April 23
statement of Erdogan was designed to make him look more presidential,
with a softer political image. In other words, it was designed to
emphasize Erdogan's [presence] more than Turkish President Abdullah
Gul in the eyes of the public. It also aimed to change the view of
the international community [concerning] Erdogan," Giragosian said
in an exclusive interview with Today's Zaman in Yerevan on Tuesday.
Welcoming Erdogan's 1915 statement, Giragosian noted that it was very
significant in terms of its diverse audience. "Beside the international
community, the Armenian diaspora and the Armenian government, the
most important target of Erdogan's statement was Turkish domestic
politics," he added.
Giragosian also said that normalizing ties with Armenia is something
Turkey wants to do once Erdogan has becomes the president of Turkey.
"The strategy of the Turkish side toward Armenia is related to domestic
politics in the country. Whether this strategy will work or not is
another issue," he said.
Touching upon the 100th anniversary of the 1915 tragedy, which
Armenians say amounts to genocide, he said the Turkish side was
exaggerating the importance of the year 2015 to be greater than it
actually need be. "This is a psychological burden created by Turkey
in terms of making the year 2015 a big issue. Turkey overreacting to
the anniversary will only make the issue a bigger one," he said.
--Turkey's 'three-plan strategy' towards Armenia for 2017
He also noted that Turkey is working on a "three-plan strategy"
with regards to Armenia for the year 2017.
"The first plan is to accredit a key representative to Armenia,
like Turkish Ambassador to Georgia Levent Gumrukcu. The second
[would be to] make the unofficial diplomatic relations official; if
an ambassadorial accreditation [cannot be made], then consulate-level
relations could be established. If that does not work, perhaps [the]
third plan is a Swiss mediation between Turkey and Armenia, which is
actually a more realistic plan," Giragosian said.
He also said that rather than opening the closed border between
Turkey and Armenia, the Turkish side could establish two border
crossing points in which goods can pass from one and the other can
be used for tourism. Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993
in solidarity with Azerbaijan after Yerevan and Baku clashed over
the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Giragosian said that when compared to previous years, there was
sincerity and good will on both sides regarding the normalization. He
added that the Armenian side has learned lots of lessons from a
historic reconciliation process launched in 2009 and that Turkey
should also take action according to it. The two sides signed twin
protocols to normalize diplomatic relations, but the move was not
well received by Azerbaijan. The protocols, signed in Zurich, shook
Turkish-Azerbaijani relations, and the Nagorno-Karabakh territorial
conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has yet to be resolved.
-- For Turkey, having good ties with Armenia 'low-hanging fruit'
Giragosian noted that Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's
visit to Yerevan last December was not the first time a Turkish
foreign minister had visited the capital, but he said it was a very
significant one.
"It was a clear indication of Turkish willingness toward Armenia.
Today, the door between the two countries is closed, but it is
not locked, and much effort is not needed to reopen that door,"
Giragosian said.
According to the analyst, Armenia is low-hanging fruit for Turkey, and
if the latter were to want normalization, it could be an easy victory.
He also added that a letter from Gul to his Armenian counterpart,
Serzh Sarksyan, was followed by Davutoglu's visit. "It is not public
knowledge, but there is a standing invitation from Gul to meet with
his Armenian counterpart," Giragosian said.
-- Russia manipulated Kessab issue, fooled Armenians
There were several reports claiming that a recent attack by Syrian
opposition forces on the ethnically Armenian town of Kessab in northern
Syria was facilitated by the Turkish government.
Giragosian said it was Russia that actively promoted and provoked
the Kessab issue and led Armenians to believe that there was some
kind of Turkish hand in the problem.
"What is interesting about the Kessab issue is that it demonstrates the
inherited mistrust between Armenia and Turkey. When we look closely
at the issue, we see that the Armenian side was fooled into reacting
immediately and emotionally, putting the blame on Turkey. ...
I believe this was manipulated by Russia," Giragosian said.
(Cihan/Today's Zamamn)
http://en.cihan.com.tr/news/-Normalization-with-Armenia-hostage-to-Turkish-domestic-politics-_2428-CHMTQzMjQyOC80