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IS PUTIN'S EURASIAN VISION LOSING STEAM?
Helsinki Times, Finland
May 22 2014
Details Parent Category: World Category: International news 22 May 2014
VICTORY Day on 9 May was an occasion for Russians to indulge in
patriotic flag waving in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin
used the previous day to muster a show of diplomatic support for his
efforts to bring formerly Soviet states closer together.
On 8 May, Putin met with the presidents of Armenia, Belarus,
Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan in the Kremlin. Following the success of the
Euromaidan movement in Kyiv, Putin has made it a priority to shore up
support among other formerly Soviet states for Russia's geopolitical
agenda, in particular the establishment of a regional economic union
as a precursor to a wider political union of Eurasian states.
A treaty on the formation of a Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is due
to be signed in Astana in late May, paving the way for its launch in
January 2015. The body would be an outgrowth of the existing Customs
Union, a free trade zone comprising Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are slated to join the Customs Union before
the end of the year.
As Putin warmly welcomed existing and potential union members in
Moscow on 8 May, ostensibly for security talks unrelated to the
economic integration project, the question on the lips of Kremlin
watchers was: will they or won't they put pen to paper on the EEU
founding document in less than three weeks' time?
The Moscow meeting came on the heels of a disastrous Customs Union
summit in Minsk on 29 April, where expectations of finalising the
treaty fizzled as Putin and his counterparts, Alexander Lukashenko
of Belarus and Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, admitted that,
at this late stage, they have differences over the pact's wording.
Nazarbayev's conspicuous absence from the 8 May talks in Moscow,
convened under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty
Organisation, set tongues wagging about differences of opinion.
Contacted by telephone by EurasiaNet.org, Nazarbayev's office said
it had no comment -- but some observers interpreted his no-show as
a snub to Putin from one of his closest allies.
As other regional leaders were cosying up to the Kremlin, Nazarbayev
was having a tete a tete in Astana with a senior official from the
United States, Moscow's arch-rival in the geopolitical struggle over
Ukraine. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns used the meeting to
assure Nazarbayev of America's "enduring" commitment to Kazakhstan and
Central Asia, the State Department said, as the Ukraine crisis helps
"underscore what's at stake."
Regional analysts tend to believe that the recent signs are not
indicators of insurmountable problems surrounding the EEU's formation.
"It's hard to predict anything these days, but it seems to me that the
treaty will be signed -- but in a reduced form, with most difficult
issues to be resolved after signing," Nargis Kassenova, director
of the Central Asian Studies Center at Almaty's KIMEP University,
told EurasiaNet.org.
"If it's not signed it will be a blow to the reputation of Vladimir
Putin, but also to some extent that of Nursultan Nazarbayev," she
added. "Both invested a lot of personal image capital into it."
Alex Nice, a regional analyst at the London-based Economist
Intelligence Unit, also feels that integration plans are more or less
on track.
"It's possible there might be a further delay to the final signing of
the document, but I'm confident that the treaty will come into force
as planned next January," he told EurasiaNet.org, pointing out that
"negotiations on the EEU treaty are very far advanced."
The chances of the agreement being signed on time are "quite high,"
concurred regional security expert Aida Abzhaparova of the University
of the West of England. Nazarbayev is a cheerleader for integration,
she pointed out, and signing the treaty in Astana would have huge
"symbolism" for him: Nazarbayev first proposed the notion of a
Eurasian union long before Putin took it up, and sees himself as
"the father of the idea."
Speculation that the union might be heading off the rails was fueled by
reports on 7 May that Kyrgyzstan's prime minister, Joomart Otorbayev,
wished to postpone membership for a year -- but his spokeswoman
denied the claim. Otorbayev had, on the contrary, said Kyrgyzstan
would complete the legislative groundwork to join by the end of the
year, Gulnura Toraliyeva told EurasiaNet.org by telephone.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the EEU's success is Russia's actions
in Ukraine, suggests Kassenova.
"The Ukraine crisis undermined Russian policy in the post-Soviet
space," Kassenova said. "Now it's seen as a bully without any respect
for the sovereignty of its neighbours. Plus, the crisis undermined
the economy of Russia and made it less capable of serving as the
locomotive of integration."
"On the one hand, the crisis should give more bargaining power to
Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan," she continued. "On the other,
the overall destiny of the project is in doubt: will Russia have the
will and resources to support and sponsor it further?"
INTER PRESS SERVICE JOANNA LILLIS
http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/world-news/international-news/10694-is-putin-s-eurasian-vision-losing-steam.html
Helsinki Times, Finland
May 22 2014
Details Parent Category: World Category: International news 22 May 2014
VICTORY Day on 9 May was an occasion for Russians to indulge in
patriotic flag waving in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin
used the previous day to muster a show of diplomatic support for his
efforts to bring formerly Soviet states closer together.
On 8 May, Putin met with the presidents of Armenia, Belarus,
Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan in the Kremlin. Following the success of the
Euromaidan movement in Kyiv, Putin has made it a priority to shore up
support among other formerly Soviet states for Russia's geopolitical
agenda, in particular the establishment of a regional economic union
as a precursor to a wider political union of Eurasian states.
A treaty on the formation of a Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) is due
to be signed in Astana in late May, paving the way for its launch in
January 2015. The body would be an outgrowth of the existing Customs
Union, a free trade zone comprising Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.
Armenia and Kyrgyzstan are slated to join the Customs Union before
the end of the year.
As Putin warmly welcomed existing and potential union members in
Moscow on 8 May, ostensibly for security talks unrelated to the
economic integration project, the question on the lips of Kremlin
watchers was: will they or won't they put pen to paper on the EEU
founding document in less than three weeks' time?
The Moscow meeting came on the heels of a disastrous Customs Union
summit in Minsk on 29 April, where expectations of finalising the
treaty fizzled as Putin and his counterparts, Alexander Lukashenko
of Belarus and Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, admitted that,
at this late stage, they have differences over the pact's wording.
Nazarbayev's conspicuous absence from the 8 May talks in Moscow,
convened under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty
Organisation, set tongues wagging about differences of opinion.
Contacted by telephone by EurasiaNet.org, Nazarbayev's office said
it had no comment -- but some observers interpreted his no-show as
a snub to Putin from one of his closest allies.
As other regional leaders were cosying up to the Kremlin, Nazarbayev
was having a tete a tete in Astana with a senior official from the
United States, Moscow's arch-rival in the geopolitical struggle over
Ukraine. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns used the meeting to
assure Nazarbayev of America's "enduring" commitment to Kazakhstan and
Central Asia, the State Department said, as the Ukraine crisis helps
"underscore what's at stake."
Regional analysts tend to believe that the recent signs are not
indicators of insurmountable problems surrounding the EEU's formation.
"It's hard to predict anything these days, but it seems to me that the
treaty will be signed -- but in a reduced form, with most difficult
issues to be resolved after signing," Nargis Kassenova, director
of the Central Asian Studies Center at Almaty's KIMEP University,
told EurasiaNet.org.
"If it's not signed it will be a blow to the reputation of Vladimir
Putin, but also to some extent that of Nursultan Nazarbayev," she
added. "Both invested a lot of personal image capital into it."
Alex Nice, a regional analyst at the London-based Economist
Intelligence Unit, also feels that integration plans are more or less
on track.
"It's possible there might be a further delay to the final signing of
the document, but I'm confident that the treaty will come into force
as planned next January," he told EurasiaNet.org, pointing out that
"negotiations on the EEU treaty are very far advanced."
The chances of the agreement being signed on time are "quite high,"
concurred regional security expert Aida Abzhaparova of the University
of the West of England. Nazarbayev is a cheerleader for integration,
she pointed out, and signing the treaty in Astana would have huge
"symbolism" for him: Nazarbayev first proposed the notion of a
Eurasian union long before Putin took it up, and sees himself as
"the father of the idea."
Speculation that the union might be heading off the rails was fueled by
reports on 7 May that Kyrgyzstan's prime minister, Joomart Otorbayev,
wished to postpone membership for a year -- but his spokeswoman
denied the claim. Otorbayev had, on the contrary, said Kyrgyzstan
would complete the legislative groundwork to join by the end of the
year, Gulnura Toraliyeva told EurasiaNet.org by telephone.
Perhaps the biggest threat to the EEU's success is Russia's actions
in Ukraine, suggests Kassenova.
"The Ukraine crisis undermined Russian policy in the post-Soviet
space," Kassenova said. "Now it's seen as a bully without any respect
for the sovereignty of its neighbours. Plus, the crisis undermined
the economy of Russia and made it less capable of serving as the
locomotive of integration."
"On the one hand, the crisis should give more bargaining power to
Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan," she continued. "On the other,
the overall destiny of the project is in doubt: will Russia have the
will and resources to support and sponsor it further?"
INTER PRESS SERVICE JOANNA LILLIS
http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/world-int/world-news/international-news/10694-is-putin-s-eurasian-vision-losing-steam.html