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Terra incognita: Holding Lebanon hostage (again)
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
05/25/2014 21:30
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Terra-incognita-Holding-Lebanon-hostage-again-354327
What has happened in Lebanon is that the vacuum left by the withdrawal
over the years of foreign powers (Syria, Israel and briefly a
US-backed multi-national force) has resulted in Hezbollah dominating
the country's politics. Syrian children at refugee camp in Tyre,
southern Lebanon
Syrian children at refugee camp in Tyre, southern Lebanon Photo:
REUTERS/Ali Hashisho On Saturday, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman
reviewed his last honor guard at the Baabda palace near Beirut. His
wife wore a modest blue dress as they made their way through well
wishers. And then he was gone, chauffeured away in a sleek black car.
His term technically ended Sunday, and the country has now been
plunged into yet another political crisis with a presidential vacuum.
Once again Hezbollah holds all the cards and has been boycotting the
presidential election process in parliament.
Lebanon's political system is a byzantine blend of democracy and
confessionalism that took root with the National Pact of 1943 that
enshrined a system whereby the president had to be a Maronite
Christian, the prime-minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of
parliament a Shi'ite Muslim. In 1989 the Taif agreement expanded the
number of legislators in parliament to 128 (from 99) and ensured that
half the seats in parliament would be held by Muslims (as opposed to
before 1989 when 54 percent had to be Christian). The elections are
immensely complicated in this respect with 19 parties competing in two
alliances.
In the 2009 elections, for instance, the March 8 alliance was composed
of two large Shi'ite parties, Hezbollah and Amal, as well as their
Christian allies in the Free Patriotic Movement. It was opposed by the
March 14 Alliance, whose largest party is the Sunni-based Future
Movement, and which also consists of two Christian parties, the
Lebanese Forces and Kataeb (Phalange). Each faction has a constituent
Armenian party, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (March 8) and
the Armenian Democratic Liberal Party. Similarly, the Druse, who make
up a sizable minority in Lebanon and are guaranteed eight seats in the
parliament, have a party in each faction: the Lebanese Democratic
Party (March 8) of Emir Talal Arsalan and Walid Jumblatt's Progressive
Socialist Party.
The fancy names, which appear to espouse socialism or democracy, are
in fact very sectarian and contradictory, since both political
alliances seem to have "socialists" in them.
Lebanon underwent a brutal civil war in the 1970s and '80s and
afterward was occupied (in its southern half) by Israel until 2000 and
by Syria until 2005. Its politics are partially an outgrowth of those
three events. Former soldiers Samir Geagea and Michael Aoun played key
roles in the civil war and both opposed Syria's involvement in the
country. Amine Gemayel's son and brother were both assassinated, the
former probably by Hezbollah and the later at the behest of Syria.
Similarly March 14 leader and current Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri's
father Rafik Hariri was assassinated in 2005 by Hezbollah.
What has happened in Lebanon is that the vacuum left by the withdrawal
over the years of foreign powers (Syria, Israel and briefly a
US-backed multi-national force) has resulted in Hezbollah dominating
the country's politics. This isn't readily apparent, since Hezbollah
is strongest primarily in south Beirut and southern Lebanon, where it
maintains an armed terrorist force, while Hezbollah only obtained 13
seats (of the 27 reserved for Shi'ites) in the 2009 election. How can
such a paltry showing hold a whole country hostage? ON MAY 18 Lebanese
politicians seemed to have agreed to elect a president before May 25.
Sa'ad Hariri and Samir Geagea sat down with Fouad Siniora, the former
Sunni prime minister, in Paris.
According to The Daily Star they wanted a consensus candidate who
would be amenable to the March 8 opposition. Geagea reached out to the
Saudis as well, because of their history in brokering the Taif
agreement. Saudi Arabia supports the Sunnis in Lebanon and worries
about Iranian-backed Hezbollah's power.
However, a two-thirds quorum is needed in parliament to elect the
president, and Hezbollah and some other opposition politicians have
been boycotting sessions. Al-Arabiya reported that when Michel
Suleiman left the presidential palace, Hezbollah did not send a
representative. "The party has demanded a future president be
sympathetic to the mititia's intervention [in Syria]," it reported.
Sami Nader, writing at Al-Monitor, noted that these recent actions
"revealed the excessive power of Hezbollah, which exceeds the state in
terms of role and weight."
President Suleiman had attempted, since 2012, to keep Lebanon out of
the Syrian civil war. However in June 2013 Hezbollah sent its fighters
streaming into Syria, helping to turn the tide in the battle for
Qusair. Some estimates have Hezbollah committing as many as 12,000 men
to the conflict, and it is training more in the Bekaa Valley in
Lebanon.
Hezbollah knows it can get away with this because of events in 2008
when it sent its fighters into the streets of Beirut. An agreement
signed in Doha seemed to give Hezbollah and its allies a veto over
cabinet decisions and postponed the disarming of the organization.
Thus, instead of disarming, Hezbollah learned that it could use its
arms to force itself on Lebanon; its invasion of Syria to aid the
Syrian government has shown that it can dictate the country's foreign
policy as well. Attempts to curtail its independent communications
network or even prevent it from maintaining its own security cameras
at the airport were neutered.
The failure to elect a president by the stroke of midnight on the 24th
was a serious blow. Sa'ad Hariri said it is "a serious risk that
threatens the safety of the democratic system and turns the presidency
into a target for permanent [political] blackmail."
He wants to see a president in office who will back Suleiman's "Baabda
declaration" of non-involvement in Syria. Wassim Mrough, writing at
the Daily Star, asked whether the vacuum would "again lead to an
abyss."
Lebanese often talk in dark parables about civil war, using terms like
"abyss" as code for the day after fighting breaks out. But in the end
it is just talk. The non-Hezbollah factions are not well armed. In
November 2013 two suicide bombers struck the Iranian embassy in Beirut
and in January of 2014 someone blew themself up in a Shi'ite
neighborhood, showing that Sunni extremists, allied to the rebels in
Syria, can strike at Hezbollah and its backers. In Sidon and Tripoli
Sunni radicals, led by clerics like Ahmed Assir, have taken root; but
the army has often arrested them (prosecutors are seeking the death
penalty for Assir). The arrest of al-Qaeda linked Sheikh Omar Bakri
yesterday was part of this trend whereby radical Sunnis are
incarcerated but Shia extremists do as they please.
The real lesson the Hezbollah opposition has once again learned is
that it can whittle away at Christian power in Lebanon. By having a
vacuum the traditional Christian leader is absent. Maronite Patriarch
Beshara Rai was cognizant of that in mid- May when he devoted energy
to finding a compromise candidate, warning President Suleiman that the
interests of Christians would be harmed. In the end Rai left the
country to attend the Pope's visit in Jordan and Israel while
Hezbollah threatened the Christian cleric with "negative
repercussions" for visiting Israel.
Currently the discussions on a candidate for president sit with the
Christian leaders: Geagea, Gemayel, Aoun and Suleiman Franghieh (the
son of Tony Franghieh who was assassinated in 1978 during the Civil
War). But the power behind the throne is Hezbollah and the
Iranian-Syrian axis. It is an unfortunate story that Lebanon, whose
beaches overflow with frolicking beauties (a photo on Facebook this
week shows bikini-clad women sitting on top of a classy car careening
around Beirut), is home to one of the most reactionary, savage
religious-terrorist movements in the world.
And that movement, despite representing a minority of the population,
has come to hold the country hostage.
Follow the writer on Twitter @sfrantzman
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN
05/25/2014 21:30
http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Terra-incognita-Holding-Lebanon-hostage-again-354327
What has happened in Lebanon is that the vacuum left by the withdrawal
over the years of foreign powers (Syria, Israel and briefly a
US-backed multi-national force) has resulted in Hezbollah dominating
the country's politics. Syrian children at refugee camp in Tyre,
southern Lebanon
Syrian children at refugee camp in Tyre, southern Lebanon Photo:
REUTERS/Ali Hashisho On Saturday, Lebanese President Michel Suleiman
reviewed his last honor guard at the Baabda palace near Beirut. His
wife wore a modest blue dress as they made their way through well
wishers. And then he was gone, chauffeured away in a sleek black car.
His term technically ended Sunday, and the country has now been
plunged into yet another political crisis with a presidential vacuum.
Once again Hezbollah holds all the cards and has been boycotting the
presidential election process in parliament.
Lebanon's political system is a byzantine blend of democracy and
confessionalism that took root with the National Pact of 1943 that
enshrined a system whereby the president had to be a Maronite
Christian, the prime-minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of
parliament a Shi'ite Muslim. In 1989 the Taif agreement expanded the
number of legislators in parliament to 128 (from 99) and ensured that
half the seats in parliament would be held by Muslims (as opposed to
before 1989 when 54 percent had to be Christian). The elections are
immensely complicated in this respect with 19 parties competing in two
alliances.
In the 2009 elections, for instance, the March 8 alliance was composed
of two large Shi'ite parties, Hezbollah and Amal, as well as their
Christian allies in the Free Patriotic Movement. It was opposed by the
March 14 Alliance, whose largest party is the Sunni-based Future
Movement, and which also consists of two Christian parties, the
Lebanese Forces and Kataeb (Phalange). Each faction has a constituent
Armenian party, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (March 8) and
the Armenian Democratic Liberal Party. Similarly, the Druse, who make
up a sizable minority in Lebanon and are guaranteed eight seats in the
parliament, have a party in each faction: the Lebanese Democratic
Party (March 8) of Emir Talal Arsalan and Walid Jumblatt's Progressive
Socialist Party.
The fancy names, which appear to espouse socialism or democracy, are
in fact very sectarian and contradictory, since both political
alliances seem to have "socialists" in them.
Lebanon underwent a brutal civil war in the 1970s and '80s and
afterward was occupied (in its southern half) by Israel until 2000 and
by Syria until 2005. Its politics are partially an outgrowth of those
three events. Former soldiers Samir Geagea and Michael Aoun played key
roles in the civil war and both opposed Syria's involvement in the
country. Amine Gemayel's son and brother were both assassinated, the
former probably by Hezbollah and the later at the behest of Syria.
Similarly March 14 leader and current Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri's
father Rafik Hariri was assassinated in 2005 by Hezbollah.
What has happened in Lebanon is that the vacuum left by the withdrawal
over the years of foreign powers (Syria, Israel and briefly a
US-backed multi-national force) has resulted in Hezbollah dominating
the country's politics. This isn't readily apparent, since Hezbollah
is strongest primarily in south Beirut and southern Lebanon, where it
maintains an armed terrorist force, while Hezbollah only obtained 13
seats (of the 27 reserved for Shi'ites) in the 2009 election. How can
such a paltry showing hold a whole country hostage? ON MAY 18 Lebanese
politicians seemed to have agreed to elect a president before May 25.
Sa'ad Hariri and Samir Geagea sat down with Fouad Siniora, the former
Sunni prime minister, in Paris.
According to The Daily Star they wanted a consensus candidate who
would be amenable to the March 8 opposition. Geagea reached out to the
Saudis as well, because of their history in brokering the Taif
agreement. Saudi Arabia supports the Sunnis in Lebanon and worries
about Iranian-backed Hezbollah's power.
However, a two-thirds quorum is needed in parliament to elect the
president, and Hezbollah and some other opposition politicians have
been boycotting sessions. Al-Arabiya reported that when Michel
Suleiman left the presidential palace, Hezbollah did not send a
representative. "The party has demanded a future president be
sympathetic to the mititia's intervention [in Syria]," it reported.
Sami Nader, writing at Al-Monitor, noted that these recent actions
"revealed the excessive power of Hezbollah, which exceeds the state in
terms of role and weight."
President Suleiman had attempted, since 2012, to keep Lebanon out of
the Syrian civil war. However in June 2013 Hezbollah sent its fighters
streaming into Syria, helping to turn the tide in the battle for
Qusair. Some estimates have Hezbollah committing as many as 12,000 men
to the conflict, and it is training more in the Bekaa Valley in
Lebanon.
Hezbollah knows it can get away with this because of events in 2008
when it sent its fighters into the streets of Beirut. An agreement
signed in Doha seemed to give Hezbollah and its allies a veto over
cabinet decisions and postponed the disarming of the organization.
Thus, instead of disarming, Hezbollah learned that it could use its
arms to force itself on Lebanon; its invasion of Syria to aid the
Syrian government has shown that it can dictate the country's foreign
policy as well. Attempts to curtail its independent communications
network or even prevent it from maintaining its own security cameras
at the airport were neutered.
The failure to elect a president by the stroke of midnight on the 24th
was a serious blow. Sa'ad Hariri said it is "a serious risk that
threatens the safety of the democratic system and turns the presidency
into a target for permanent [political] blackmail."
He wants to see a president in office who will back Suleiman's "Baabda
declaration" of non-involvement in Syria. Wassim Mrough, writing at
the Daily Star, asked whether the vacuum would "again lead to an
abyss."
Lebanese often talk in dark parables about civil war, using terms like
"abyss" as code for the day after fighting breaks out. But in the end
it is just talk. The non-Hezbollah factions are not well armed. In
November 2013 two suicide bombers struck the Iranian embassy in Beirut
and in January of 2014 someone blew themself up in a Shi'ite
neighborhood, showing that Sunni extremists, allied to the rebels in
Syria, can strike at Hezbollah and its backers. In Sidon and Tripoli
Sunni radicals, led by clerics like Ahmed Assir, have taken root; but
the army has often arrested them (prosecutors are seeking the death
penalty for Assir). The arrest of al-Qaeda linked Sheikh Omar Bakri
yesterday was part of this trend whereby radical Sunnis are
incarcerated but Shia extremists do as they please.
The real lesson the Hezbollah opposition has once again learned is
that it can whittle away at Christian power in Lebanon. By having a
vacuum the traditional Christian leader is absent. Maronite Patriarch
Beshara Rai was cognizant of that in mid- May when he devoted energy
to finding a compromise candidate, warning President Suleiman that the
interests of Christians would be harmed. In the end Rai left the
country to attend the Pope's visit in Jordan and Israel while
Hezbollah threatened the Christian cleric with "negative
repercussions" for visiting Israel.
Currently the discussions on a candidate for president sit with the
Christian leaders: Geagea, Gemayel, Aoun and Suleiman Franghieh (the
son of Tony Franghieh who was assassinated in 1978 during the Civil
War). But the power behind the throne is Hezbollah and the
Iranian-Syrian axis. It is an unfortunate story that Lebanon, whose
beaches overflow with frolicking beauties (a photo on Facebook this
week shows bikini-clad women sitting on top of a classy car careening
around Beirut), is home to one of the most reactionary, savage
religious-terrorist movements in the world.
And that movement, despite representing a minority of the population,
has come to hold the country hostage.
Follow the writer on Twitter @sfrantzman