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  • Readiness of the Kremlin to protect "Big Russian world" dangerous fo

    Alexander Zinker: Readiness of the Kremlin to protect its "Big Russian
    world" is dangerous for Russia itself

    Interview of Director of Institute for the Eastern European and CIS
    Countries in Tel-Aviv, Dr, Alexander Zinker

    by David Stepanyan
    Saturday, July 5, 10:20


    Ukraine has stirred up the layer of the old problems accumulated
    between the world force centers. Today they have been seriously
    discussing a problem of a unique border running through its territory
    and of the geo-political split between the West and Russia. What are
    these borders?


    New processes have been developing at the territory of the former
    USSR, within the frames of which some republics understand the
    statements by the Russian leaders "concerned about the problems of the
    Russian-language population in other countries", of the so-called
    "big Russian world", like a warning. On the one hand, it is normal
    that Moscow is concerned about these problems. But on the other hand,
    how much Russia may support these communities of the "Russian world".
    The problem goes out of the CIS frames. There are 1,5 million
    Russian-language population living in Israel. However, this does not
    at all mean that Russia may suddenly be concerned about the problems
    of the Russian-language population of Israel. Fortunately, Moscow does
    not think about it, and I hope Russia will never do that Ukraine has
    risen many old problems accumulated between the world force centers,
    and it is hard to predict how further events will develop in Ukraine,
    and between Russia, Ukraine, the USA, Europe and other CIS countries.
    I can only say that the events in Ukraine have stirred up all the
    problems between the above mentioned countries. Moreover, the attitude
    of the USA and EU to this issue is absolutely different. If the events
    in Ukraine directly concern Europe, they concern the USA indirectly.
    Just for this reason, unlike the Europeans, the Americans are more
    categorical in their statements and requirements.



    I think that in that case Israel's answer will be short...





    The time will come when the peoples of Russia and Ukraine will think
    not about their difference but equality. A new word expression
    appeared today .
    This word expression really reflects the situation and the short-tern
    prospect. I have never seen such a true information war at all the
    levels, and in mass media first of all. I think no mass media as such
    have remained in Ukraine and Russia. They have quickly turned into the
    propaganda bodies.

    I have got an impression that today people have simply turned into
    zombie by this multi-level propaganda. And the situation will not
    recover, until these people themselves will not understand that they
    can make friends. By the way, today Georgia and Russia have been
    gradually establishing relations, though after the war 08.08.08. it
    was practically impossible. I think that the time will also come when
    the peoples of Russia and Ukraine will think not about their
    difference but equality. Not everything is simple there. As for the
    purely political reaction of the EU at the events in Central Europe,
    here we have a strict system of dual standards.



    Do you agree to the viewpoint that the USA and Russia have again found
    themselves in a "cold war"?



    The Americans and the Russians have called the relations
    establishing between them for the last years as "restart". But at the
    symbolic button they accidentally wrote the word "overload", and
    actually just the overloading has taken place. Today the cold war
    again started between these countries. The relations level being
    established today between Russia, the EU and the USA is like a new
    cold war. Moreover, some people say even about the danger of the third
    world war. For this reason, today there is no smile in the relations
    between the USA and Russia, and I think they will not smile to each
    other for a long period of time. Both parties may be blamed for that.
    I think that all the ideas of President Barack Obama, for which he
    was given the Nobel Prize, were not brought to life. His only merit is
    withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. As for the situation in
    Ukraine, the expert thinks that Obama's administration has been acting
    not so much far-sightedly, as it is better to talk than to threat with
    sanctions and weapon.



    And what about Putin?



    Today's Vladimir Putin differs very much from Putin which came at the
    beginning of the 2000s. When he appointed Medvedev as a premier, the
    conception of his foreign policy sharply changed, to be correct, its
    paradigm changed. And the empire statements often voiced by him for
    the last period of time, will unavoidably lead to bigger changes. I
    think that the radicals' wing in his surrounding and in the Russian
    policy strongly pushes him to that. Today this wing says about the
    necessity of bringing Russian troops into Ukraine, which is very much
    dangerous. Taking into consideration the fact that the leadership of
    NATO seems to be eager of that, it is a very much dangerous trend. The
    talks that the third world war will save the world economy from a
    theoretical research has transformed into a theory which may be
    implemented in practice. I hope that the radical wing of the Russian
    policy will not gain a victory, but he does not want to predict
    further development of the situation conditioned by the latest trends
    in the global politics. Nevertheless, one thing may be said for sure -
    "the cold war" period has again become reality today.

    In its aspiration "to gather the Russian lands" Moscow has been
    imposing pressure upon the potential participants in its Eurasian
    projects. What does it hinder Russia to economic levers for raising of
    the true interests of the South Caucasus states, including Azerbaijan
    , in the Eurasian Economic Union? I mean, for instance, unblocking of
    the Abkhazian sector of the railway.



    I have got an impression that by every attempt of the Russians to
    restore any commonwealth, not the USSR, which is unreal, less
    beneficiary countries remain. So, I think that such an approach is
    wrong. The economic tie of the countries with Russia is the best
    scenario for integration. And although it is not so much modern in
    Armenia, I treat Armenia's joining the Customs Union rather calmly. By
    the way, Israel seriously revises the idea of cooperation with
    Eurasian Union. I think that in Armenia as well as in Ukraine this
    issue is very much politicized. Whereas, in Israel only big
    businessmen and governmental structures were aware of signing the
    Association Agreement with the EU, all the rest population were not
    interested in this issue at all.



    Maybe, because there was not an opposite pole to pull Israel to its side?



    Yes, of course. At present we have been cooperating with Eurasian
    structures, but the EU does not even try to say that having an
    Association agreement with the EU, Israel should not have similar
    economic relations with another structure. So, economy is the best
    machinery for being interested in integration. At the same time, I am
    not sure that if Moscow decides to involve an issue of unblocking of
    the Abkhazian sector of the railway in its integration machinery, it
    will be easily resolved, as it is not an economic problem. I am
    confident that when Georgia revises the problem of letting trains run
    through the territory which it thinks is an occupied one, it is not an
    economy any more but politics. In this context, I think that it is
    very much possible that the problem of the Abkhazian railway may be
    resolved only grounding on the economy but not politics. Incidentally,
    the Georgians have several times come to that. However, the politics
    always became an obstacle.

    And what about Israel?



    In general, taking into account the level of relations between
    Armenia and its natural partner Iran, Israel is quite alert to the
    idea of restoration of the North-South communications. I think that
    opening of the Abkhazian sector of the railway would extend the
    economic ties of Armenia much. If Russia took the issue of other CIS
    countries' participation in its economic projects on the basis of
    equal partnership, it would gain much more, at least, it would not
    lose the friends which it loses today. I think that Kazakhstan,
    taking into consideration the fact that numerous Russian-language
    people have been living at its territory, should worry that one day,
    when its relations with Russia worsen, Russia may take this trump
    card. I think that the trend of readiness of the Kremlin to protect
    the "Big Russian world" is dangerous for Russia, first of all. And one
    should take it very much carefully. Any country does not have friends
    forever, there are only everlasting interests. What is happening today
    between Russia and Armenia may be explained just by coincidence of
    economic and in a certain sense regional interests of Russia with the
    interests of Armenia.

    http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectid=690E48E0-040C-11E4-95330EB7C0D21663


    From: Baghdasarian
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