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Karabakh conflict in eyes of Israeli political analyst

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  • Karabakh conflict in eyes of Israeli political analyst

    Vestnik Kavkaza, Russia
    July 31 2014

    Karabakh conflict in eyes of Israeli political analyst

    31 July 2014 - 12:03pm


    Interview by Peter Lyukimson, Israel. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza

    Doctor Emil Abramov, a senior scientist of the Center for Iran and
    Persian Gulf Studies of the University of Haifa, is one of the Israeli
    scientists actively engaged in studying the history of the South
    Caucasus, one of the leading specialists in the sector. Dr. Abramov is
    preparing to publish his book and a series of articles on the history
    of the Azerbaijani khanates, keeping a close watch on events in the
    South Caucasus today, including the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

    - Doctor Abramov, how interesting is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict for
    Israeli scientists? Do you think there are any similarities between
    the Armenian-Azerbaijani and the Israeli-Palestinian conflicts?

    - Israeli political analysts, of course, are more interested in the
    development of the situation in the Middle East. Generally, the
    Caucasus, sadly, remains terra incognita for Israeli scientists, only
    a very few of them are familiar with the problems of the Caucasus.

    One may, of course, find similarities in any conflicts. But I think
    that the Karabakh and the Palestinian conflicts differ in their
    essence, history, scale, the number of sides involved, the interest of
    world mass media and many other factors. Every conflict is a unique
    phenomenon, and attempts to resolve one conflict or another are based
    on comparative analysis, they are, in my opinion, unproductive.

    - There are many versions about the cause of the Armenian-Azerbaijani
    conflict. Which of them do you think is the closest to the historical
    truth?

    - Indeed, there are countless versions. And the majority of them can
    easily be labeled as fantasy. The Karabakh conflict doubtlessly has
    historical origins. But since Azerbaijan and Armenia are still on the
    territory of post-Soviet space, the issue should be regarded from the
    submission of the Trans-Caucasus to the Russian Empire, not older
    times.

    Before the conquest of the Trans-Caucasus, Armenians of the Russian
    Empire were a minority on most of the territory they occupy today.
    Being Christians, they were considered a natural ally of Russia in the
    fight against Muslim Persia and Turkey. Or vice versa, the Turkomans
    seemed like an unreliable population to the government, capable of
    taking the side of their co-religionists at any moment. Right after
    conquering the Trans-Caucasus in 1828 on the territory of the
    discontinued Nakhichevan and Erivan Khanates, the Armenian Oblast was
    formed; encouraged by the authorities of the Russian Empire, Armenians
    from Persia and the Ottoman Empire started settling there. Curiously,
    the resettlement of Armenians on the new territories was often hardly
    voluntary. The displacement of the Turkic population, the obvious
    disrespect from the imperial authorities and the religious differences
    artfully used by various provocateurs caused rising tensions in
    relations between Azerbaijanis and Armenians, resulting in bloody
    clashes that took many lives. One such massacre in 1905-1906 ended
    with numerous deaths.

    Azerbaijan and Armenia, arising from the ruins of the Russian Empire
    in 1918, managed to wage two wars in just two years of independence,
    followed by ethnic cleansing. In 1920, the Bolsheviks liquidated both
    republics. It seems that the new government, postulating friendship of
    peoples, was to bring serenity. Indeed, despite some clashes and
    deportations of Azerbaijanis from Armenia in the 1947-1950s, it seemed
    for a long time that the conflict between the two peoples had come to
    an end. But the events in Karabakh showed that the Soviet period was
    only a calm before the storm.

    I think, however, that historical arguments should be omitted in order
    to resolve the Karabakh conflict. Referring to the traditional pages
    of history only aggravates the current conflict and slows its
    settlement. I, of course, do not call for putting history out of mind
    and wiping the slate clean. It is simply impossible. But arguments
    such as "you were not here" only brings us to a stalemate.

    - What is your evaluation of the actions of the Armenian and
    Azerbaijani authorities in the "hottest" period of the conflict, from
    1990 to 1993?

    - The Armenian side was better prepared for the conflict, in military
    and ideological terms. Using the strength of the Armenian community,
    skillfully forming agitation, Armenia managed to attract the sympathy
    of the Western world to its side. Azerbaijan, on the contrary, was
    unprepared for serious confrontation.

    (Indeed, the plans and secret preparation of Armenian nationalists,
    supported and controlled by the USSR capital and abroad, was
    absolutely unexpected - Vestnik Kavkaza note). In those years,
    Azerbaijanis and Armenians had excellent relations in Azerbaijan, no
    one expected a conflict. Many leaders of Azerbaijan were idealists
    then. In addition, the Azerbaijani elites were dissociated on
    different issues. The situation changed when experienced politician
    Heydar Aliyev returned to power, managed to stop the war and give the
    country a break.

    - How fair are Azerbaijani accusations of Armenia committing military
    crimes and violating international law?

    - Azerbaijan accuses the Armenian side of a set of such crimes, the
    most outrageous of them is the Khojaly tragedy. Armenia is obviously
    denying guilt. But the guilt has been proved by many independent
    observers.

    - What is your evaluation of the path both countries gone through in
    the last two decades, from the ceasefire to today? How did the
    conflict affect the development of their economic, domestic and
    foreign policies?

    - The Karabakh conflict has been the center of political discourse in
    both republics. The Armenian side managed to gain control over
    Nagorno-Karabakh, but it seems to be a Pyrrhic victory today. Because
    of the long-running conflict, Armenia ended up in a blockade with a
    bad impact on its economic development. Russia, the closest ally of
    Armenia, as is known, has no land border with the republic. So Armenia
    has to strengthen ties with Iran, ruining its image in the West.
    Moreover, Armenia lacks an attractive economy for investors. The
    situation develops completely differently in Azerbaijan. Managing to
    recover from the repercussions of the war and postwar ruins, the
    resource-rich country managed to allocate major volumes of funds for
    modernization of the army. The growing economy makes Azerbaijan an
    ever more significant player in the Caucasus and the world.

    - And here is the main question. What are the positions of Armenia and
    Azerbaijan in the world arena? Whose are better in your opinion?

    - Doubtlessly, the Azerbaijani position is better. Armenia connected
    its fate with Russia and cooperates with Iran quite actively, which in
    the context of the crisis in relations between the West and Russia and
    the long-running negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program greatly
    weakens Armenia's positions. The problem is that Armenia has hardly
    any space for manoeuvre, not that it chose its allies and partners. If
    Russia refuses to support Armenia for some reason, it will simply run
    out of allies. Azerbaijan, being pro-Western on many issues, managed
    to maintain friendly ties with Russia. In other words, Azerbaijan has
    great potential for actions in the international arena.

    - How constructive is the position each side takes in resolving the
    conflict, in your opinion?

    - Unfortunately, settlement of the conflict has reach gridlock.
    Azerbaijan demands its territories back, I will remind you that it
    demands Nagorno-Karabakh itself and the surrounding Azerbaijani
    territories currently controlled by the Armenian side. The Armenian
    side denies the claims, calling the territories its own. On the other
    hand, we cannot ignore the fact that an Armenian population inhabits
    Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijan will have to form a system of
    relations with it volens nolens. Both sides are fed up with many years
    of fruitless talks, endless declarations and mutual accusations. I
    really hope that no new war will start and the Karabakh issue will be
    resolved peacefully.

    - What further scenarios of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict do you foresee?

    - In my opinion, the situation is developing according to the current
    scenario, i.e. the negotiation process will remain in a stalemate.
    Although, there have recently been certain prospects for progress in
    the Russian policy, maybe Russia will put pressure on Yerevan to
    ameliorate its position. But it is too early to talk about this.

    - And the final question for you, as a specialist: what is your
    evaluation of Azerbaijani and Armenian relations with Israel?

    - Armenia takes a very passive position. It is no secret that
    Azerbaijan is actively cooperating with Israel in various sectors,
    including the military sector. Israel has already chosen a path
    towards close cooperation with Azerbaijan. The cooperation is
    beneficial for both sides, each of them wants to make maximum profit
    from partnership relations.

    Moreover, there is an emotional moment. Israel remembers the
    many-centuries existence of a Jewish community on Azerbaijani land and
    knows that Azerbaijan has no anti-Semitism. Israel constantly declares
    its support for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, hosts Azerbaijani
    festivals and commemorations for victims of Black January and the
    Khojaly tragedy.


    http://vestnikkavkaza.net/interviews/politics/58308.html

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