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Georgi Kolarov: The second Nagorno-Karabakh war is inevitable
ArmInfo's Interview with Bulgarian political scientist, Professor of
Moscow State University and Varna University of Economics Georgi
Kolarov
by Marianna Lazarian
Thursday, July 31, 22:53
Mr. Kolarov, do you think it is possible to draw a parallel between
the past Bulgaria-Macedonia relations and the current Armenia-Artsakh
ones?
On 2 August 1903, in the territory of present-day Macedonia and
Northwestern Greece the Bulgarians' biggest anti-Ottoman rebellion
broke out. It lasted for 3 months and ended up in failure due to the
prevalence of the Turkish army. Part of Bulgaria, which was already
free at that time, was unable to help the rebels. This factor, as well
as the following Balkan wars, WW I and WW II resulted in separation of
these territories from Bulgaria. Later, for a number of reasons the
local elite in Macedonia started developing national consciousness on
anti-Bulgarian basis with the support of Royal Yugoslavia and Greece.
It came to the point that the local Communist regime started imposing
anti-Bulgarian consciousness on the local Bulgarians. Moreover,
Macedonia claimed that the rebellion against the Ottoman Empire was
committed by Macedonians and that Bulgarians had nothing to do with
that. I think if Armenia's leadership regularly neglects the interests
of Karabakh people, one day people in Stepanakert may say, "We are not
Armenians and we have nothing in common with Armenians and we won the
Karabakh war, not Armenians. This is what is being observed in
Macedonia now. On the threshold of 2 August 2014, Greek Prime Minister
Antonis Samaras declared that the Macedonian language is a dialect of
the Bulgarian language and that the nation of the Macedonians and
their language were invented by the Communists in the 1930s.
Let's talk about the parallels.
If the Karabakh Armenians have not yet separated from the rest of
Armenians, a big role here belongs to the presidents Robert Kocharyan
and Serzh Sargsyan, who came to power as victors of the Karabakh war.
But I can assure you that if Levon Ter-Petrosyan had remained at
power, the process of separation would have started long ago. I have
been to Karabakh twice. I paid my second visit there as an observer at
the presidential election in late July 2012. I can say that unlike the
Armenians of Yerevan, the Armenians of Karabakh have no strong
pro-Western sentiments. As soon as Armenia takes the course for the
West, separatist sentiments will arise in Karabakh. The residents of
Artsakh will cease taking into account the interests of Armenians
worldwide and will be geared to Russia.
In other words, do you observe pro-Russian sentiments in Karabakh?
Yes, I do. They even speak Russian better than the residents of
Yerevan. I have recently attended a CSTO event and I was very much
surprised at the fact that the Defense Ministry representatives spoke
Russian worse than English. It was obvious that they attended training
courses in the United States or in Great Britain or in any other
English-speaking country. This already demonstrates the replacement of
the value system. I think this fact cannot help causing certain
concerns for the future of Armenia, because I consider Armenia's
eventual commitment to the West and the breach of relations with
Russia to be disastrous. Armenia may experience the same developments
as in Ukraine, because most of the Armenian people will put up with
the breach of relations with Russia under no circumstances.
Can one expect resumption of military actions in the Karabakh conflict
zone in the near future given the frequent ceasefire violations?
I think the second Nagorno-Karabakh war is inevitable. Armenia should
get ready for the second war at least in order to avoid the third one.
Azerbaijan is actively arming itself. If there is a gun hanging on the
wall, it must fire one day. If Azerbaijan is actively buying arms, it
will use them sooner or later. Rich as it is, Azerbaijan is full of
social-economic and religious contradictions. The conflict between
Islamist and pro-Western moods may result in political unrest and
collapse. So, the best way for the Azeri authorities to avoid this is
to provoke a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh. On the other hand,
Azerbaijan will not be able to win this war. But under current
circumstances, even a small victory and a compromise-based peace will
be enough for the Azeri authorities as they will convince their people
that it was a big win. So, the Armenian army must be ready for
military provocations and must do its best to win the new war so as
avoid any concessions during subsequent peace talks.
How would you explain the escalating tension on the Armenian-Azeri border?
The key reason why more incidents are being recorded on the contact
line is growing tension inside Azerbaijan. The same is going on in
Ukraine, where local authorities are availing themselves of ongoing
war to rob their people.
How would you assess the fact that Azerbaijan initiates the
provocations but the OSCE Minsk Group's statements are addressed to
both parties?
The representatives of all the three co-chair countries of the OSCE
Minsk Group speak and behave like professional diplomats. I suppose it
is no secret that the public opinion of these three superpowers is in
Armenians' favor. These are the countries where Armenians found refuge
after the genocide. One can also understand Baku's regular protests
against the OSCE Minsk Group's decision and the Co-Chairs' behavior.
Baku has clever people who realize that these three mediators
represent the countries whose major part of the society feels sympathy
for the Armenians. I think Armenia has no reasons to worry about the
OSCE Minsk Group's steps.
What can you say about the Armenian-Turkish relations?
I think that Ankara is concerned about opening of the Armenian-Turkish
border not less than Yerevan, as it will become a push for development
of the eastern regions of this country. This will become a push for
development of the eastern regions of Turkey where Kurds have been
chiefly living in poverty. As a result of complex social conditions in
these regions of Turkey, emigration is growing and these territories
clear. As Turks scare the Armenian revenge and devastation of the
territories at the border to Armenia is not beneficial to them, and
social and economic development of these regions plays into Ankara's
hands. Taking all this into consideration, Turkey will soon open the
border to Armenia. At the same time, one should take into account the
growing disagreement between the prime minister and the future
president of Turkey Recep Erdogan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham
Aliyev, as the latter still has been vibrating between Erdogan and the
Suni priest Fethullah Gulen, which has been ruling the Turkish foreign
policy much. In such a situation, I think that especially on the
threshold of the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide, opening
of the border will promote mellowing of the situation and raising of
Turkey's rating in the eyes of the world community.
Does it mean that you do not rule out opening of the Armenian-Turkish
border till 24 April 2015?
Yes, it does. I think that the border will be opened even earlier..
What is the reason of Erdogan's statement made on 23 April 2014 in
which he expressed condolences to successors of the victims of the
tragedy at the beginning of the 20th century?
There is such a tendency in Erdogan's policy. This is a mellow
approach in order not to disturb Turkish nationalists, on the one
hand, and on the other hand, to start a fluent approach to the
dialogue with Armenians and the world community. Erdogan is not fool
and understands that if he goes on worsening of relations with Armenia
in general, and with the Armenian Diaspora in particular, in that
case, he will not be able to lot upon effective relations either with
Russia or France and the USA or other superpowers, where the
influential Armenian Diaspora lives. Even during the Karabakh war,
Russia and the USA were supporting Armenia. Yes, Russia may arm
Azerbaijan, but if Aliyev has got so much money, he will find the way
to purchase weapon, if not from Russia, but from Ukraine, Belarus and
other CIS countries.
Is recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Turkey possible in the near future?
No, it is not. Turkey will not recognize the Armenian genocide on the
threshold of its 100th anniversary, but certain revision of the
Turkish position regarding the events at the beginning of the 20th
century will take place by the 24th April. Ankara will not be as
radical as today. I think that the future president of Turkey Erdogan
will not accept Armenian president's invitation to visit Yerevan on 24
April 2015. If he makes such a step, he will come across big problems
in his country from the side of Islamists and nationalists. I think
that it is still early to make such a step. Erdogan cannot let himself
make such a step because of the local reasons.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectidö217C70-18E3-11E4-A2D60EB7C0D21663
ArmInfo's Interview with Bulgarian political scientist, Professor of
Moscow State University and Varna University of Economics Georgi
Kolarov
by Marianna Lazarian
Thursday, July 31, 22:53
Mr. Kolarov, do you think it is possible to draw a parallel between
the past Bulgaria-Macedonia relations and the current Armenia-Artsakh
ones?
On 2 August 1903, in the territory of present-day Macedonia and
Northwestern Greece the Bulgarians' biggest anti-Ottoman rebellion
broke out. It lasted for 3 months and ended up in failure due to the
prevalence of the Turkish army. Part of Bulgaria, which was already
free at that time, was unable to help the rebels. This factor, as well
as the following Balkan wars, WW I and WW II resulted in separation of
these territories from Bulgaria. Later, for a number of reasons the
local elite in Macedonia started developing national consciousness on
anti-Bulgarian basis with the support of Royal Yugoslavia and Greece.
It came to the point that the local Communist regime started imposing
anti-Bulgarian consciousness on the local Bulgarians. Moreover,
Macedonia claimed that the rebellion against the Ottoman Empire was
committed by Macedonians and that Bulgarians had nothing to do with
that. I think if Armenia's leadership regularly neglects the interests
of Karabakh people, one day people in Stepanakert may say, "We are not
Armenians and we have nothing in common with Armenians and we won the
Karabakh war, not Armenians. This is what is being observed in
Macedonia now. On the threshold of 2 August 2014, Greek Prime Minister
Antonis Samaras declared that the Macedonian language is a dialect of
the Bulgarian language and that the nation of the Macedonians and
their language were invented by the Communists in the 1930s.
Let's talk about the parallels.
If the Karabakh Armenians have not yet separated from the rest of
Armenians, a big role here belongs to the presidents Robert Kocharyan
and Serzh Sargsyan, who came to power as victors of the Karabakh war.
But I can assure you that if Levon Ter-Petrosyan had remained at
power, the process of separation would have started long ago. I have
been to Karabakh twice. I paid my second visit there as an observer at
the presidential election in late July 2012. I can say that unlike the
Armenians of Yerevan, the Armenians of Karabakh have no strong
pro-Western sentiments. As soon as Armenia takes the course for the
West, separatist sentiments will arise in Karabakh. The residents of
Artsakh will cease taking into account the interests of Armenians
worldwide and will be geared to Russia.
In other words, do you observe pro-Russian sentiments in Karabakh?
Yes, I do. They even speak Russian better than the residents of
Yerevan. I have recently attended a CSTO event and I was very much
surprised at the fact that the Defense Ministry representatives spoke
Russian worse than English. It was obvious that they attended training
courses in the United States or in Great Britain or in any other
English-speaking country. This already demonstrates the replacement of
the value system. I think this fact cannot help causing certain
concerns for the future of Armenia, because I consider Armenia's
eventual commitment to the West and the breach of relations with
Russia to be disastrous. Armenia may experience the same developments
as in Ukraine, because most of the Armenian people will put up with
the breach of relations with Russia under no circumstances.
Can one expect resumption of military actions in the Karabakh conflict
zone in the near future given the frequent ceasefire violations?
I think the second Nagorno-Karabakh war is inevitable. Armenia should
get ready for the second war at least in order to avoid the third one.
Azerbaijan is actively arming itself. If there is a gun hanging on the
wall, it must fire one day. If Azerbaijan is actively buying arms, it
will use them sooner or later. Rich as it is, Azerbaijan is full of
social-economic and religious contradictions. The conflict between
Islamist and pro-Western moods may result in political unrest and
collapse. So, the best way for the Azeri authorities to avoid this is
to provoke a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh. On the other hand,
Azerbaijan will not be able to win this war. But under current
circumstances, even a small victory and a compromise-based peace will
be enough for the Azeri authorities as they will convince their people
that it was a big win. So, the Armenian army must be ready for
military provocations and must do its best to win the new war so as
avoid any concessions during subsequent peace talks.
How would you explain the escalating tension on the Armenian-Azeri border?
The key reason why more incidents are being recorded on the contact
line is growing tension inside Azerbaijan. The same is going on in
Ukraine, where local authorities are availing themselves of ongoing
war to rob their people.
How would you assess the fact that Azerbaijan initiates the
provocations but the OSCE Minsk Group's statements are addressed to
both parties?
The representatives of all the three co-chair countries of the OSCE
Minsk Group speak and behave like professional diplomats. I suppose it
is no secret that the public opinion of these three superpowers is in
Armenians' favor. These are the countries where Armenians found refuge
after the genocide. One can also understand Baku's regular protests
against the OSCE Minsk Group's decision and the Co-Chairs' behavior.
Baku has clever people who realize that these three mediators
represent the countries whose major part of the society feels sympathy
for the Armenians. I think Armenia has no reasons to worry about the
OSCE Minsk Group's steps.
What can you say about the Armenian-Turkish relations?
I think that Ankara is concerned about opening of the Armenian-Turkish
border not less than Yerevan, as it will become a push for development
of the eastern regions of this country. This will become a push for
development of the eastern regions of Turkey where Kurds have been
chiefly living in poverty. As a result of complex social conditions in
these regions of Turkey, emigration is growing and these territories
clear. As Turks scare the Armenian revenge and devastation of the
territories at the border to Armenia is not beneficial to them, and
social and economic development of these regions plays into Ankara's
hands. Taking all this into consideration, Turkey will soon open the
border to Armenia. At the same time, one should take into account the
growing disagreement between the prime minister and the future
president of Turkey Recep Erdogan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham
Aliyev, as the latter still has been vibrating between Erdogan and the
Suni priest Fethullah Gulen, which has been ruling the Turkish foreign
policy much. In such a situation, I think that especially on the
threshold of the 100th anniversary of the Armenian genocide, opening
of the border will promote mellowing of the situation and raising of
Turkey's rating in the eyes of the world community.
Does it mean that you do not rule out opening of the Armenian-Turkish
border till 24 April 2015?
Yes, it does. I think that the border will be opened even earlier..
What is the reason of Erdogan's statement made on 23 April 2014 in
which he expressed condolences to successors of the victims of the
tragedy at the beginning of the 20th century?
There is such a tendency in Erdogan's policy. This is a mellow
approach in order not to disturb Turkish nationalists, on the one
hand, and on the other hand, to start a fluent approach to the
dialogue with Armenians and the world community. Erdogan is not fool
and understands that if he goes on worsening of relations with Armenia
in general, and with the Armenian Diaspora in particular, in that
case, he will not be able to lot upon effective relations either with
Russia or France and the USA or other superpowers, where the
influential Armenian Diaspora lives. Even during the Karabakh war,
Russia and the USA were supporting Armenia. Yes, Russia may arm
Azerbaijan, but if Aliyev has got so much money, he will find the way
to purchase weapon, if not from Russia, but from Ukraine, Belarus and
other CIS countries.
Is recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Turkey possible in the near future?
No, it is not. Turkey will not recognize the Armenian genocide on the
threshold of its 100th anniversary, but certain revision of the
Turkish position regarding the events at the beginning of the 20th
century will take place by the 24th April. Ankara will not be as
radical as today. I think that the future president of Turkey Erdogan
will not accept Armenian president's invitation to visit Yerevan on 24
April 2015. If he makes such a step, he will come across big problems
in his country from the side of Islamists and nationalists. I think
that it is still early to make such a step. Erdogan cannot let himself
make such a step because of the local reasons.
http://www.arminfo.am/index.cfm?objectidö217C70-18E3-11E4-A2D60EB7C0D21663