Tweet
BETWEEN EUROPE AND EURASIA
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
October 8, 2014 Wednesday
by Sergei Markedonov
Source: Profil, No. 36, October 06-12, 2014, p. 13
ARMENIA, GEORGIA AND AZERBAIJAN WILL HAVE TO RECONFIGURE THEIR FOREIGN
POLICY BECAUSE OF THE CONFLICT OF RUSSIA AND THE WEST; Membership of
Armenia in the Eurasian Economic Union may be discussed at a meeting
in Minsk on October 10 of 2014.
At the end of September, a draft treaty on joining of Armenia to the
Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) was published in mass media.
Authenticity of the text was confirmed by representatives of the
Foreign Ministry of this Trans-Caucasian Republic. Publication of
the draft treaty on joining to the EAEU at the end of September is
not incidental and is not a political improvisation. Most likely,
membership of Yerevan in this association will be debated at
negotiations in Minsk on October 10 of 2014.
At present, the post-Soviet space as a whole and Transcaucasia
in particular are viewed as a territory of competition of diverse
integration projects.
Commenting on the geopolitical situation in Transcaucasia, observers
traditionally use a "two-pole scheme." Armenia, the only military
ally of Moscow in the region (the 102nd Russian base is located on
its territory) at one of the poles. There is Georgia that has no
diplomatic relations with Russia (unlike Ukraine) on the other pole.
Along with this, Azerbaijan does not fit this two-color scheme. It
does not manifest interest in entrance into NATO but it is more than
interested in development of energy partnership with the West. It
was started 20 years ago by signing of the "contract of the century"
between Baku and the leading energy companies of eight countries.
Azerbaijani authorities have significant skepticism about integration
projects under the aegis of Russia. They are viewed like some
similarity to non-functional CIS or association not very useful for
solving of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the central problem on agenda
of the republic. Along with this, Baku values the existing business
relations with Moscow and readiness of the Kremlin to accept the
internal political priorities of the official authorities without
any reservations.
But not everything is so simple and unambiguous with regard to
Georgia and Armenia. Having reputation of a pro-Russian outpost,
Yerevan is very interested in preserving of positive dynamic in
relations with the EU and US. First, there is a numerous Armenian
Diaspora concentrated there (especially in the US and France). It
is very active in promotion of a positive image of unrecognized
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Second, people in Yerevan understand that
if they go away from cooperation with the West initiative in this
direction will be taken by Azerbaijan. In any case, even this is not
the most important. There are different views at integration prospects
of Armenia inside of the EAEU. Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbayev
frequently expressed a cautious but noticeably skepticism about
entrance of Armenia into the Eurasian Economic Union de facto with
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Inside of Armenia some people would like
to debate all topics related to tariffs (inside of the republic they
are lower than in the integration structure) before the final entrance.
With regard to Georgia, rapid development of the Middle Eastern
region towards turbulence together with growing radicalization of the
population of the Pankissi Gorge and neighborhood of Dagestan, Chechnya
and Ingushetia force politicians of this country to raise the issue of
the need for cooperation with Moscow about security issues increasingly
often on top of the existing Abkhaz and South Ossetian barriers.
Thus, if we put integration aside, nobody cancelled the national
interests yet. And countries of the Caucasian region will look for
their own ways against the background of common scarcity of resources
and opportunities not in strict correspondence to the harsh principles
of "parties," understanding that policy is an art of possible,
especially in such difficult region as Transcaucasia.
[Translated from Russian]
From: A. Papazian
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
October 8, 2014 Wednesday
by Sergei Markedonov
Source: Profil, No. 36, October 06-12, 2014, p. 13
ARMENIA, GEORGIA AND AZERBAIJAN WILL HAVE TO RECONFIGURE THEIR FOREIGN
POLICY BECAUSE OF THE CONFLICT OF RUSSIA AND THE WEST; Membership of
Armenia in the Eurasian Economic Union may be discussed at a meeting
in Minsk on October 10 of 2014.
At the end of September, a draft treaty on joining of Armenia to the
Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) was published in mass media.
Authenticity of the text was confirmed by representatives of the
Foreign Ministry of this Trans-Caucasian Republic. Publication of
the draft treaty on joining to the EAEU at the end of September is
not incidental and is not a political improvisation. Most likely,
membership of Yerevan in this association will be debated at
negotiations in Minsk on October 10 of 2014.
At present, the post-Soviet space as a whole and Transcaucasia
in particular are viewed as a territory of competition of diverse
integration projects.
Commenting on the geopolitical situation in Transcaucasia, observers
traditionally use a "two-pole scheme." Armenia, the only military
ally of Moscow in the region (the 102nd Russian base is located on
its territory) at one of the poles. There is Georgia that has no
diplomatic relations with Russia (unlike Ukraine) on the other pole.
Along with this, Azerbaijan does not fit this two-color scheme. It
does not manifest interest in entrance into NATO but it is more than
interested in development of energy partnership with the West. It
was started 20 years ago by signing of the "contract of the century"
between Baku and the leading energy companies of eight countries.
Azerbaijani authorities have significant skepticism about integration
projects under the aegis of Russia. They are viewed like some
similarity to non-functional CIS or association not very useful for
solving of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem, the central problem on agenda
of the republic. Along with this, Baku values the existing business
relations with Moscow and readiness of the Kremlin to accept the
internal political priorities of the official authorities without
any reservations.
But not everything is so simple and unambiguous with regard to
Georgia and Armenia. Having reputation of a pro-Russian outpost,
Yerevan is very interested in preserving of positive dynamic in
relations with the EU and US. First, there is a numerous Armenian
Diaspora concentrated there (especially in the US and France). It
is very active in promotion of a positive image of unrecognized
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Second, people in Yerevan understand that
if they go away from cooperation with the West initiative in this
direction will be taken by Azerbaijan. In any case, even this is not
the most important. There are different views at integration prospects
of Armenia inside of the EAEU. Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbayev
frequently expressed a cautious but noticeably skepticism about
entrance of Armenia into the Eurasian Economic Union de facto with
Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. Inside of Armenia some people would like
to debate all topics related to tariffs (inside of the republic they
are lower than in the integration structure) before the final entrance.
With regard to Georgia, rapid development of the Middle Eastern
region towards turbulence together with growing radicalization of the
population of the Pankissi Gorge and neighborhood of Dagestan, Chechnya
and Ingushetia force politicians of this country to raise the issue of
the need for cooperation with Moscow about security issues increasingly
often on top of the existing Abkhaz and South Ossetian barriers.
Thus, if we put integration aside, nobody cancelled the national
interests yet. And countries of the Caucasian region will look for
their own ways against the background of common scarcity of resources
and opportunities not in strict correspondence to the harsh principles
of "parties," understanding that policy is an art of possible,
especially in such difficult region as Transcaucasia.
[Translated from Russian]
From: A. Papazian