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Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijan
October 9, 2014 Thursday
Thomas de Waal: The West does not want to change the regime in Azerbaijan
Baku / 09.10.14 / Turan: The expert on the Caucasus International
Peace Foundation Carnegie Thomas de Waal believes that the cooling of
the relations of official Baku with the West is detrimental to the
country's independence.
In an interview with the Voice of America he commented on recent
attacks on civil society in Azerbaijan and the anti-Western course of
Baku, the Karabakh conflict and the geopolitical interests in the
region.
Question: In the last article you said that Azerbaijan has no plans to
integrate with the West. Why do you think so?
Answer: Let's agree that Azerbaijan is not a western country. It is a
country that lies between the West and the East, where there is a
historical influence of Turkey, Iran and Russia.
Azerbaijan is not a Western country, and there is nothing wrong with
that. The problem is that some lobbyists in Washington want to form
the impression that Azerbaijan has an allegedly pro-Western
government.
Against the background of what is happening in the Ukraine, it was
possible to believe that Azerbaijan will be closer to the West, but it
is surprising that Baku does the opposite.
Yes, Azerbaijan has close relationship with the Pentagon and the
Western oil companies. At the same time, Baku has good relations with
Russia.
The authorities stepped up pressure on civil society, Western NGOs -
IREX, NDI and others.
Pro-Western activists have been arrested - Leyla and Arif Yunus, Rasul
Jafarov, Intigam Aliyev, Ilgar Mamedov, Anar Mammadli and Rauf
Mirkadyrov.
Q: Former Ambassador to Azerbaijan Richard Kozlarich and the Director
of Freedom House David Kramer called for sanctions against the
government of Azerbaijan. What do you think about this?
Answer: This is a rather tough position, and it is stated by people
who have quite a considerable weight in foreign policy of the United
States.
Working in the government, Kramer was one of those who actively
participated in the implementation of sanctions against Belarus. It
should be noted that now the human rights situation in Azerbaijan is
much worse than in Belarus, and it may be a manifestation of double
standards.
I believe that it is important to maintain dialogue with President
Aliyev and the Azerbaijani government. They need to make it clear that
this is not about regime change.
My concern is that even such statements of people friendly to
Azerbaijan as Ambassador Richard Morningstar have not been correctly
interpreted.
Official Baku instead to hear these appeals, arrested more people. At
some point the administration must consider what measures can be
taken. These may include sanctions. In my opinion, we have not come to
this point.
Q: What are the main sources of threats to the stability of Azerbaijan
- external, internal, or both?
Answer: I see basically two risks for Azerbaijan. I do not think that
the external risks are high. Russia and Iran are a problem. But none
of them is going to carry out a direct invasion in Azerbaijan. None of
them wants a regime change. They have good relations with President
Ilham Aliyev.
There are two risks. The first is access to the political scene of
religious radicals and marginalization of the opposition. Vacant place
will be occupied by jihadists, who are now fighting in Syria and Iraq
in the units of LIH. One day they will return home.
The second threat is inflammation of the Karabakh war. At the contact
line, we see periodic skirmishes. Provocations occur on both sides.
Due to the use of heavy weapons, even a limited war can cause mass
casualties.
Q: What advice would you give to the Government of Azerbaijan?
Answer: They should listen carefully to the statements from Washington.
There they are not interested in regime change in Baku, although they
want to see Azerbaijan as an open and democratic state.
Iran and Russia are great neighbors. However, if Azerbaijan wants more
independence, you should make peace also with a small neighbor.
Achieving peace through mutual compromise would make Azerbaijan an
important strategic corridor between the West and the East.
Of course, to reach a compromise is not easy. But lands will be
returned, the refugees will return home. Such an outcome would
strengthen Azerbaijan.
Q: What do you mean by compromise?
Answer: The suggestions are on the table. Azerbaijan will get back 7
regions around Nagorno-Karabakh except for a narrow Lachin corridor.
Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh are granted the right to
self-government. The final status of the region remains uncertain for
a long period and 20-30 years later a referendum will be held. During
this period, Azerbaijan and Armenia will establish relationships.
Azerbaijan is economically ahead of Armenia.
Azerbaijan can use "soft power" against Armenia. People will return to
their homes. The security situation will improve. Life will improve.
Azerbaijan will not get all what it wants - for example the
Azerbaijani flag may not be raised over Khankendi. But everything else
will be achieved. -06B-
From: A. Papazian
October 9, 2014 Thursday
Thomas de Waal: The West does not want to change the regime in Azerbaijan
Baku / 09.10.14 / Turan: The expert on the Caucasus International
Peace Foundation Carnegie Thomas de Waal believes that the cooling of
the relations of official Baku with the West is detrimental to the
country's independence.
In an interview with the Voice of America he commented on recent
attacks on civil society in Azerbaijan and the anti-Western course of
Baku, the Karabakh conflict and the geopolitical interests in the
region.
Question: In the last article you said that Azerbaijan has no plans to
integrate with the West. Why do you think so?
Answer: Let's agree that Azerbaijan is not a western country. It is a
country that lies between the West and the East, where there is a
historical influence of Turkey, Iran and Russia.
Azerbaijan is not a Western country, and there is nothing wrong with
that. The problem is that some lobbyists in Washington want to form
the impression that Azerbaijan has an allegedly pro-Western
government.
Against the background of what is happening in the Ukraine, it was
possible to believe that Azerbaijan will be closer to the West, but it
is surprising that Baku does the opposite.
Yes, Azerbaijan has close relationship with the Pentagon and the
Western oil companies. At the same time, Baku has good relations with
Russia.
The authorities stepped up pressure on civil society, Western NGOs -
IREX, NDI and others.
Pro-Western activists have been arrested - Leyla and Arif Yunus, Rasul
Jafarov, Intigam Aliyev, Ilgar Mamedov, Anar Mammadli and Rauf
Mirkadyrov.
Q: Former Ambassador to Azerbaijan Richard Kozlarich and the Director
of Freedom House David Kramer called for sanctions against the
government of Azerbaijan. What do you think about this?
Answer: This is a rather tough position, and it is stated by people
who have quite a considerable weight in foreign policy of the United
States.
Working in the government, Kramer was one of those who actively
participated in the implementation of sanctions against Belarus. It
should be noted that now the human rights situation in Azerbaijan is
much worse than in Belarus, and it may be a manifestation of double
standards.
I believe that it is important to maintain dialogue with President
Aliyev and the Azerbaijani government. They need to make it clear that
this is not about regime change.
My concern is that even such statements of people friendly to
Azerbaijan as Ambassador Richard Morningstar have not been correctly
interpreted.
Official Baku instead to hear these appeals, arrested more people. At
some point the administration must consider what measures can be
taken. These may include sanctions. In my opinion, we have not come to
this point.
Q: What are the main sources of threats to the stability of Azerbaijan
- external, internal, or both?
Answer: I see basically two risks for Azerbaijan. I do not think that
the external risks are high. Russia and Iran are a problem. But none
of them is going to carry out a direct invasion in Azerbaijan. None of
them wants a regime change. They have good relations with President
Ilham Aliyev.
There are two risks. The first is access to the political scene of
religious radicals and marginalization of the opposition. Vacant place
will be occupied by jihadists, who are now fighting in Syria and Iraq
in the units of LIH. One day they will return home.
The second threat is inflammation of the Karabakh war. At the contact
line, we see periodic skirmishes. Provocations occur on both sides.
Due to the use of heavy weapons, even a limited war can cause mass
casualties.
Q: What advice would you give to the Government of Azerbaijan?
Answer: They should listen carefully to the statements from Washington.
There they are not interested in regime change in Baku, although they
want to see Azerbaijan as an open and democratic state.
Iran and Russia are great neighbors. However, if Azerbaijan wants more
independence, you should make peace also with a small neighbor.
Achieving peace through mutual compromise would make Azerbaijan an
important strategic corridor between the West and the East.
Of course, to reach a compromise is not easy. But lands will be
returned, the refugees will return home. Such an outcome would
strengthen Azerbaijan.
Q: What do you mean by compromise?
Answer: The suggestions are on the table. Azerbaijan will get back 7
regions around Nagorno-Karabakh except for a narrow Lachin corridor.
Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh are granted the right to
self-government. The final status of the region remains uncertain for
a long period and 20-30 years later a referendum will be held. During
this period, Azerbaijan and Armenia will establish relationships.
Azerbaijan is economically ahead of Armenia.
Azerbaijan can use "soft power" against Armenia. People will return to
their homes. The security situation will improve. Life will improve.
Azerbaijan will not get all what it wants - for example the
Azerbaijani flag may not be raised over Khankendi. But everything else
will be achieved. -06B-
From: A. Papazian