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Washington: Russia and the South Caucasus: A Situation the U.S. Cann

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  • Washington: Russia and the South Caucasus: A Situation the U.S. Cann

    US Official News
    November 26, 2014 Wednesday


    Washington: Russia and the South Caucasus: A Situation the U.S. Cannot Ignore

    Washington

    The Heritage Foundation has issued the following news release:

    While the U.S. and NATO are focused on Russian activity in Central and
    Eastern Europe, there are three developments in the South Caucasus
    that merit closer attention: (1) recent political instability in
    Georgia; (2) possible Russian annexation of Georgian breakaway
    territories; and (3) increasing tensions between Armenia and
    Azerbaijan over the Armenian-occupied Azerbaijani territory of
    Nagorno-Karabakh. In all three developments, Russia's influence can be
    detected behind the scenes. Although the South Caucasus is
    geographically distant from the U.S., events there can have serious
    ramifications for the transatlantic community. Events in the South
    Caucasus can impact regional security, and by extension, America and
    Europe's security. Therefore, it is in America's national interests to
    keep a close eye on developments in the region.


    A Strategic Crossroads

    The South Caucasus sits at a crucial geographical and cultural
    crossroads and has been strategically important for military and
    economic reasons for centuries. This is particularly true for the U.S.
    and Europe. The region, especially Georgia and Azerbaijan, has played
    a major role in NATO's Northern Distribution Network for resupplying
    troops in Afghanistan. Important pipelines transit the region carrying
    oil and gas to European markets. As Europeans try to become less
    dependent on Russian energy sources these pipelines will become
    increasingly important. However distant the region might seem, it is
    important and cannot be ignored.


    Political Instability in Georgia

    On November 4, Georgia's pro-Western defense minister, Irakli
    Alasania, was fired by Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili after
    speaking out publicly against the Georgian prosecutor's office for
    charges of corruption brought against officials in the Ministry of
    Defense. Alasania, who enjoys huge popularity in Georgia, suggested
    that the charges were politically motivated. After his dismissal,
    Alasania removed his party, the Free Democrats, from the ruling
    Georgian Dream coalition. This led to other prominent Free Democrats
    in government resigning their ministerial posts--including Georgia's
    Foreign Minister.

    Due to the divisive nature of coalition governments, and the
    increasingly fractured political situation in Georgia, it is likely
    that Alasania's dismissal was, at least in part, politically
    motivated. Alasania's dismissal follows a string of charges by the
    Georgian prosecutor's office against former government officials and
    ministers, including the former Georgian president, Mikheil
    Saakashvili. The U.S. State Department has expressed "concerns about
    political retribution, particularly when legal and judicial
    institutions are still fragile."[1] Even though Prime Minister
    Garibashvili has maintained that Georgia is firmly committed to
    Euro-Atlantic integration, Alasania's dismissal is a blow to those who
    seek closer ties with the West.


    Another Annexation by Russia?

    South Ossetia and Abkhazia declared independence from Georgia in 1990
    and 1999, respectively. Since the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia,
    Russia has occupied both with military forces. Today, Russia is one of
    only four countries that recognize their independence (the others
    being Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Nauru). By contrast, many European
    countries and the United States recognize the Russian presence in
    South Ossetia and Abkhazia as an illegal occupation.

    In November, Russia and Abkhazia signed a treaty on "alliance and
    strategic partnership"--written by officials in Moscow. Among other
    things, it calls for a coordinated foreign policy, the creation of a
    "common security and defense space" between Russia and Abkhazia, and
    the implementation of a streamlined process for Abkhazians to receive
    Russian citizenship.[2] The Georgian Foreign Ministry criticized the
    treaty as a step toward "annexation of Georgia's occupied
    territories."[3] South Ossetia and Russia reportedly agreed to a
    similar document in November.[4] These agreements are the first step
    in a process of Russian annexation of both breakaway regions--both of
    which are still internationally recognized to be part of Georgia.
    Considering Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea, Georgians have a
    cause for concern.


    Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Heating Up

    The current Nagorno-Karabakh conflict started in 1988 when Armenia
    made territorial claims to Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh autonomous
    oblast. Even though there have been multiple calls from the
    international community for them to withdraw their forces, Armenia and
    Armenia-backed militias continue to occupy 20 percent of what is
    internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan's territory. A
    cease-fire agreement was signed in 1994 but the conflict remains
    unresolved.

    In the past several weeks, fighting in the region has been increasing.
    More than 20 soldiers have been killed since August alone--15 of whom
    were Azerbaijani. On November 12, a Karabakh attack helicopter was
    shot down by Azerbaijani forces. This was the first time a military
    aircraft has been shot down in the Nagorno-Karabakh region in at least
    20 years. If these cease-fire violations turn into a full- blown war,
    the spillover effect could disrupt oil and gas pipelines--which at
    their closest point are only eight miles from the cease-fire line--and
    bring instability to neighboring Georgia.

    Instability in the Nagorno-Karabakh region benefits Moscow because it
    allows the Russian regime to leverage its influence--especially in
    Armenia. Armenia's coziness with Moscow is worth noting. Armenia has
    recently expressed interest in joining the Russian-led Eurasian
    Economic Union. In 2010, Armenia renewed an agreement to host a large
    Russian military base until 2044, and Russian troops patrol Armenia's
    borders with Turkey and Iran. Armenia even voted with Russia in the
    U.N. General Assembly regarding the annexation of Crimea. Regarding
    the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, in 2013, the commander of Russian
    forces in Armenia said in an interview: "If Azerbaijan decides to
    restore jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh by force, the [Russian]
    military base may join in the armed conflict in accordance with the
    Russian Federation's obligations within the framework of the
    Collective Security Treaty Organization."[5]
    The Region Needs Stability

    Due to the geostrategic importance of the South Caucasus, and Russia's
    new role in the region, the U.S. cannot afford to ignore the latest
    political and security developments there. The U.S. should:

    Encourage Georgia to stay on the path to joining the transatlantic
    community. The U.S., working with allies in Europe, should continue to
    show Georgia that its future is brighter in the transatlantic
    community than it is with Russia. Irakli Alasania's dismissal from the
    defense post, and his withdrawal of the Free Democrats from the
    Georgian Dream coalition, is a serious setback to Georgians who
    support closer ties with the West.
    Increase targeted economic sanctions if either Abkhazia or South
    Ossetia is annexed by Russia. The U.S. should make it very clear to
    Russia that annexation of either of the breakaway provinces will
    trigger stronger economic sanctions that target key Russian officials.
    The U.S. should start now to develop a strategy with its European
    partners to prepare for this eventuality.
    Monitor the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia's close ties
    with Russia. Peace talks over Nagorno-Karabakh have been stalled for
    years and there is very little the U.S. can do to bring the parties
    back to the negotiating table. However, remaining silent on the matter
    offers implicit approval of the status quo. The U.S. should continue
    to call for a peaceful solution to the conflict that includes the
    withdrawal of Armenian forces from all Azerbaijani territories.

    The U.S. Cannot Ignore the South Caucasus

    Moscow continues to take advantage of ethnic divisions and tensions in
    the South Caucasus to advance pro-Russian policies that are often at
    odds with, or even worse threaten, America or NATO's interests in the
    region. While the South Caucasus might seem distant to many American
    policymakers, any spillover from ongoing and potential conflicts in
    the region can affect the United States and its security interests.
    The U.S. ignores the South Caucasus at its own peril.

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