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Nuclear Chicken in the Middle East
By Eric Margolis
November 30, 2014 "ICH " - To no
surprise, nuclear talks between Iran and major world powers have become
stalemated.
Iran will not sink "to its knees" to win a nuclear deal with the great
powers, said its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after the failure of six
months of talks in Vienna.
However, the talks will continue until at least next March. Pity the poor
negotiators: besides being excruciatingly boring, dealing with the tough,
savvy Iranians is like pulling teeth. The only nationality I ever saw get
the better of Iranians in negotiations were Armenians.
The United States has been waging economic and political warfare on the
Islamic Republic since 1979. Only Cuba has been pounded longer. Both have
suffered hugely.
Of late, Iranian nuclear scientists and technicians have been murdered in
broad daylight. Nuclear installations have been sabotaged. The Stuxnet
virus allegedly unleashed by the US and Israel against Iran's centrifuges
risked a catastrophic explosion or the release of nuclear contamination. In
neighboring, Iraq, some 300 of its former nuclear technicians and
scientists have been mysteriously murdered during the US occupation.
Iran's economy has been very seriously damaged by the US-led boycott and
commercial restrictions. Iranians are suffering mounting inflation,
shortages of goods, and a collapsing currency. Iranians are fed up being
the target of western sanctions.
In a major concession, last summer Iran converted or diluted 200kg of
uranium enriched to 20%, rendering its unusable for any potential further
enrichment into nuclear weapons fuel.
The UN Atomic Energy Agency certified this procedure. The balance of Iran's
uranium stockpile is at 5% - adequate for energy production but not for
weapons. Half its 20,000 centrifuges used to enrich uranium are shut down.
UN inspectors or cameras closely watch Iranian nuclear installations - not
to mention American and Israeli satellites.
So why does Iran stick to its guns - at least so far - and refuse make a
deal limiting or ending its production of nuclear fuel? Why endure all the
political and economic punishment and the never very distant threat of
attack by the US and/or Israel?
First, because nuclear energy has become a potent nationalist symbol for
Iran. Ayatollah Khomeini has repeatedly asserted that what he calls the
"western colonial powers" (read the US, Britain, France) have long sought
to deny modern technology to the Muslim world in order to keep it backward
and dependent on them. This is, of course, just what Imperial Britain did
with India.
Iranians point to the dire example of Iraq - the most industrialized and
technologically advanced Arab nation - that was destroyed, they say, for
this very reason.
A self-sufficient nuclear power industry will help assure Iran's economic
and political independence and a time when oil reserves in this nation of
70 million are falling. Nuclear power is a UN-granted right so long as it
stays peaceful. Iran's nuclear industry has been vigorously inspected for
over a decade by the UN, with no major violations discovered.
Ayatollah Khomeini has issued a fatwah (religious decree) banning nuclear
weapons, vowing that Iran would never possess or use them. US intelligence
has repeatedly stated that Iran has no nuclear weapons.
Ironically, its is the existing declared nuclear powers - the US, Russia,
China, France, Britain - who are in violation of the 1970 Non-Proliferation
Treaty. The pact denied nuclear weapons to other nations provided that the
signatories rapidly eliminate their nuclear arsenals. Four decades later,
none have complied with the treaty, while Israel, India, Pakistan and North
Korea have all secretly built nuclear arsenals.
But this does not matter to Iran's many enemies. They continue to raise a
hue and cry. Way back in 2006, Israel was claiming Iran would have a
nuclear weapon "in six months." We have heard similar claims ever since.
Since no nuclear weapons have been identified in Iran, its enemies now
insist Tehran is taking peaceful nuclear energy to the "breakout" point,
from which a dash to nuclear weapons in 3-6 months will be possible. What
they don't discuss is that besides Iran not having any nuclear weapons, it
will have a very difficult task miniaturizing and hardening one to fit it
into a missile warhead. Tehran lacks reliable, accurate medium-range
missiles to deliver a nuclear strike. Its Shahab-3 is a glorified
Soviet/North Korean Scud that is wildly inaccurate, mechanically
unreliable, and slow to fuel.
Even so, Israel and its US Congressional allies now insist the danger is a
mad mullah in Tehran deciding to commit nuclear hara-kiri to destroy
Israel. The "mad mullah" was a favorite bogeyman of the Victorian British
Empire. Iran's leadership is neither mad, stupid nor suicidal.
Far more important, who would Iran attack if it had nuclear weapons? The
USA or Israel? Iran has no long-range missiles. Iran would be vaporized
minutes after launching a nuclear strike. Israel's extensive nuclear
arsenal - missiles, strike aircraft, submarine launched missiles - would
survive any surprise first strike. Iran would be quickly destroyed by
Israel's counter-strike.
The real reason for simmering hostility between Israel and Iran is
Palestine. Now that most of the feeble Arab states have been removed from
the former anti-Israel coalition, the only remaining stalwart defender of
Palestinian rights - and opponent of Israel's total absorption of the West
Bank and Golan - is Iran.
For Israel's security, the best option is to make peace with Iran - which
used to be a close Iranian ally. But Israel's current hard right leaders
are determined to cement Israel's rule over the West Bank even if it means
risking war with Iran.
Israel cleverly concealed its nuclear weapons program from American
inspectors, according to defector Mordechai Vanunu. Israel no doubt fears
that Iran is doing exactly the same. My long-standing proposal has been for
Israel and Iran to mutually inspect one-another's nuclear facilities along
with UN staff.
But time for a reasonable solution to Iran's nuclear challenge is running
out. Once the Republicans take over the US Senate is January, 2015,
Israel's influence over Congress will become decisive and irresistible.
Iran knows this and is feeling the pressure mounting.
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2014
Click for Spanish
,
German
,
Dutch
,
Danish
,
French
,
translation- Note- Translation may take a moment to load.
By Eric Margolis
November 30, 2014 "ICH " - To no
surprise, nuclear talks between Iran and major world powers have become
stalemated.
Iran will not sink "to its knees" to win a nuclear deal with the great
powers, said its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after the failure of six
months of talks in Vienna.
However, the talks will continue until at least next March. Pity the poor
negotiators: besides being excruciatingly boring, dealing with the tough,
savvy Iranians is like pulling teeth. The only nationality I ever saw get
the better of Iranians in negotiations were Armenians.
The United States has been waging economic and political warfare on the
Islamic Republic since 1979. Only Cuba has been pounded longer. Both have
suffered hugely.
Of late, Iranian nuclear scientists and technicians have been murdered in
broad daylight. Nuclear installations have been sabotaged. The Stuxnet
virus allegedly unleashed by the US and Israel against Iran's centrifuges
risked a catastrophic explosion or the release of nuclear contamination. In
neighboring, Iraq, some 300 of its former nuclear technicians and
scientists have been mysteriously murdered during the US occupation.
Iran's economy has been very seriously damaged by the US-led boycott and
commercial restrictions. Iranians are suffering mounting inflation,
shortages of goods, and a collapsing currency. Iranians are fed up being
the target of western sanctions.
In a major concession, last summer Iran converted or diluted 200kg of
uranium enriched to 20%, rendering its unusable for any potential further
enrichment into nuclear weapons fuel.
The UN Atomic Energy Agency certified this procedure. The balance of Iran's
uranium stockpile is at 5% - adequate for energy production but not for
weapons. Half its 20,000 centrifuges used to enrich uranium are shut down.
UN inspectors or cameras closely watch Iranian nuclear installations - not
to mention American and Israeli satellites.
So why does Iran stick to its guns - at least so far - and refuse make a
deal limiting or ending its production of nuclear fuel? Why endure all the
political and economic punishment and the never very distant threat of
attack by the US and/or Israel?
First, because nuclear energy has become a potent nationalist symbol for
Iran. Ayatollah Khomeini has repeatedly asserted that what he calls the
"western colonial powers" (read the US, Britain, France) have long sought
to deny modern technology to the Muslim world in order to keep it backward
and dependent on them. This is, of course, just what Imperial Britain did
with India.
Iranians point to the dire example of Iraq - the most industrialized and
technologically advanced Arab nation - that was destroyed, they say, for
this very reason.
A self-sufficient nuclear power industry will help assure Iran's economic
and political independence and a time when oil reserves in this nation of
70 million are falling. Nuclear power is a UN-granted right so long as it
stays peaceful. Iran's nuclear industry has been vigorously inspected for
over a decade by the UN, with no major violations discovered.
Ayatollah Khomeini has issued a fatwah (religious decree) banning nuclear
weapons, vowing that Iran would never possess or use them. US intelligence
has repeatedly stated that Iran has no nuclear weapons.
Ironically, its is the existing declared nuclear powers - the US, Russia,
China, France, Britain - who are in violation of the 1970 Non-Proliferation
Treaty. The pact denied nuclear weapons to other nations provided that the
signatories rapidly eliminate their nuclear arsenals. Four decades later,
none have complied with the treaty, while Israel, India, Pakistan and North
Korea have all secretly built nuclear arsenals.
But this does not matter to Iran's many enemies. They continue to raise a
hue and cry. Way back in 2006, Israel was claiming Iran would have a
nuclear weapon "in six months." We have heard similar claims ever since.
Since no nuclear weapons have been identified in Iran, its enemies now
insist Tehran is taking peaceful nuclear energy to the "breakout" point,
from which a dash to nuclear weapons in 3-6 months will be possible. What
they don't discuss is that besides Iran not having any nuclear weapons, it
will have a very difficult task miniaturizing and hardening one to fit it
into a missile warhead. Tehran lacks reliable, accurate medium-range
missiles to deliver a nuclear strike. Its Shahab-3 is a glorified
Soviet/North Korean Scud that is wildly inaccurate, mechanically
unreliable, and slow to fuel.
Even so, Israel and its US Congressional allies now insist the danger is a
mad mullah in Tehran deciding to commit nuclear hara-kiri to destroy
Israel. The "mad mullah" was a favorite bogeyman of the Victorian British
Empire. Iran's leadership is neither mad, stupid nor suicidal.
Far more important, who would Iran attack if it had nuclear weapons? The
USA or Israel? Iran has no long-range missiles. Iran would be vaporized
minutes after launching a nuclear strike. Israel's extensive nuclear
arsenal - missiles, strike aircraft, submarine launched missiles - would
survive any surprise first strike. Iran would be quickly destroyed by
Israel's counter-strike.
The real reason for simmering hostility between Israel and Iran is
Palestine. Now that most of the feeble Arab states have been removed from
the former anti-Israel coalition, the only remaining stalwart defender of
Palestinian rights - and opponent of Israel's total absorption of the West
Bank and Golan - is Iran.
For Israel's security, the best option is to make peace with Iran - which
used to be a close Iranian ally. But Israel's current hard right leaders
are determined to cement Israel's rule over the West Bank even if it means
risking war with Iran.
Israel cleverly concealed its nuclear weapons program from American
inspectors, according to defector Mordechai Vanunu. Israel no doubt fears
that Iran is doing exactly the same. My long-standing proposal has been for
Israel and Iran to mutually inspect one-another's nuclear facilities along
with UN staff.
But time for a reasonable solution to Iran's nuclear challenge is running
out. Once the Republicans take over the US Senate is January, 2015,
Israel's influence over Congress will become decisive and irresistible.
Iran knows this and is feeling the pressure mounting.
Copyright Eric S. Margolis 2014
Click for Spanish
,
German
,
Dutch
,
Danish
,
French
,
translation- Note- Translation may take a moment to load.