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Soon Everyone Will Realize There Can Be No Miracles
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 20 December 2014, 21:19
It is now clear even to pro-Russian functionaries that Armenia could
be saved from the disaster only with the help of the West, and the
question occurs whether the International Monetary Fund and its
deviations are alone. How about NATO? How is it possible to security
one of the components of which is financial and economic security?
The Armenian society is interested in NATO as a possible source of
security and partner in achievement of certain geo-economic
objectives. The more or less knowledgeable representatives of the
political class consider cooperation with NATO as a remedy for the
communication and institutional blockade. However, neither they, nor
the Armenian members of parliament and government have any idea of how
this issue is going to be resolved with NATO.
As to public at large, protest against Russia is observed among them
as Russia blocks the North Caucasian road and creates problems for
migrant workers.
On the whole, NATO has become something like a Cape of Good Hope
beyond which there is something a clear understanding of which lacks.
Armenia is attentively and thoroughly following the processes among
Russia's partners in CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union when there
is temptation to conduct a multi-vector foreign policy. Developments
relating to the Russian-Belorussian relations and even the pragmatic
policy of Kazakhstan have a negative influence on the mindset in
Armenia.
Armenia is mainly worried about perspectives of Russian-Turkish
relations because Russia has significant interest in Turkey and in
Azerbaijan. Armenia is making efforts to generate new factors with a
view to opposing Russian-Turkish rapprochement but finds out that its
possibilities are quite limited, and it has to take foreign
initiatives which are related to Turkey and Russia, not the world
centers of power.
In addition, the Euro-Atlantic structures themselves have not become
"poles" for Armenia's orientation which remains skeptical towards them
and prefers building up more reliable relations with the United
States.
However, Russia's weakening interest in Armenia is not only related to
Moscow's attempts at rapprochement with Turkey but Russian interests
with a broader range.
Apparently, it will take some time to understand that there can be no
miracles. First the Europeans understood this, then the Americans, and
now Russia and Armenia have to understand this.
The political circles of Moscow, including think-tanks, are receiving
popular ideas that Armenia is not capable of the functions and roles
assigned to it in the defense and strategic plan, which is mostly
related to geo-economic interests of Russian companies, as well as
personal interests of politicians and experts.
Such an attitude to Armenia was enabled by extreme "economization" of
the Russian politics and its political elite. At the same time, in the
result of deep profanation which is typical of Russian elites, the
question whether there is an alternative to cooperation with Armenia
in the Caucasus has not been answered yet. There is no answer to the
role of Armenia as opposed to other strategies and threats in the
region.
These moods are interpreted as serious signals of threat in the
strategic southern direction which is caused by a superficial
assumptions rather than a thorough analysis, almost fragmental
comments by "bus political scientists" granted access to the media
most of which were educated in Russia.
If membership of Armenia to NATO had received the green light, there
would be a substantial discussion. According to achieved standards,
Armenia would have had an advantage among its neighbors for membership
to NATO when the alliance has accepted states which apparently
inadequate parameters of governance and state of armed forces.
Obviously, decisions on accession of new members to NATO depend on
political tasks which in the South Caucasus are still far from a
resolution. However, the project of involvement of countries of the
South Caucasus in NATO depends on the situation in the region the
least.
This decision depends on highly specific tasks relating to the tasks
of the United States in the Black Sea, geopolitical orientations in
Ukraine, the prospects for development of the U.S.-Turkish relations,
as well as more important issues on special, time and institutional
borders of the Western society where Turkey and Russia could be
accepted as more eastern participants of this super alliance.
So far no statement and resolution by the most powerful state, most
influential politicians in defense and security have had only the role
of propaganda. Is it worth panicking about membership of Armenia to
yNATO so early? Apparently, this has specific goals relating to the
struggle of ideas and papers in Moscow but this will not produce any
results in terms of substantial decisions.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33345#sthash.wgE0Llc7.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments - 20 December 2014, 21:19
It is now clear even to pro-Russian functionaries that Armenia could
be saved from the disaster only with the help of the West, and the
question occurs whether the International Monetary Fund and its
deviations are alone. How about NATO? How is it possible to security
one of the components of which is financial and economic security?
The Armenian society is interested in NATO as a possible source of
security and partner in achievement of certain geo-economic
objectives. The more or less knowledgeable representatives of the
political class consider cooperation with NATO as a remedy for the
communication and institutional blockade. However, neither they, nor
the Armenian members of parliament and government have any idea of how
this issue is going to be resolved with NATO.
As to public at large, protest against Russia is observed among them
as Russia blocks the North Caucasian road and creates problems for
migrant workers.
On the whole, NATO has become something like a Cape of Good Hope
beyond which there is something a clear understanding of which lacks.
Armenia is attentively and thoroughly following the processes among
Russia's partners in CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union when there
is temptation to conduct a multi-vector foreign policy. Developments
relating to the Russian-Belorussian relations and even the pragmatic
policy of Kazakhstan have a negative influence on the mindset in
Armenia.
Armenia is mainly worried about perspectives of Russian-Turkish
relations because Russia has significant interest in Turkey and in
Azerbaijan. Armenia is making efforts to generate new factors with a
view to opposing Russian-Turkish rapprochement but finds out that its
possibilities are quite limited, and it has to take foreign
initiatives which are related to Turkey and Russia, not the world
centers of power.
In addition, the Euro-Atlantic structures themselves have not become
"poles" for Armenia's orientation which remains skeptical towards them
and prefers building up more reliable relations with the United
States.
However, Russia's weakening interest in Armenia is not only related to
Moscow's attempts at rapprochement with Turkey but Russian interests
with a broader range.
Apparently, it will take some time to understand that there can be no
miracles. First the Europeans understood this, then the Americans, and
now Russia and Armenia have to understand this.
The political circles of Moscow, including think-tanks, are receiving
popular ideas that Armenia is not capable of the functions and roles
assigned to it in the defense and strategic plan, which is mostly
related to geo-economic interests of Russian companies, as well as
personal interests of politicians and experts.
Such an attitude to Armenia was enabled by extreme "economization" of
the Russian politics and its political elite. At the same time, in the
result of deep profanation which is typical of Russian elites, the
question whether there is an alternative to cooperation with Armenia
in the Caucasus has not been answered yet. There is no answer to the
role of Armenia as opposed to other strategies and threats in the
region.
These moods are interpreted as serious signals of threat in the
strategic southern direction which is caused by a superficial
assumptions rather than a thorough analysis, almost fragmental
comments by "bus political scientists" granted access to the media
most of which were educated in Russia.
If membership of Armenia to NATO had received the green light, there
would be a substantial discussion. According to achieved standards,
Armenia would have had an advantage among its neighbors for membership
to NATO when the alliance has accepted states which apparently
inadequate parameters of governance and state of armed forces.
Obviously, decisions on accession of new members to NATO depend on
political tasks which in the South Caucasus are still far from a
resolution. However, the project of involvement of countries of the
South Caucasus in NATO depends on the situation in the region the
least.
This decision depends on highly specific tasks relating to the tasks
of the United States in the Black Sea, geopolitical orientations in
Ukraine, the prospects for development of the U.S.-Turkish relations,
as well as more important issues on special, time and institutional
borders of the Western society where Turkey and Russia could be
accepted as more eastern participants of this super alliance.
So far no statement and resolution by the most powerful state, most
influential politicians in defense and security have had only the role
of propaganda. Is it worth panicking about membership of Armenia to
yNATO so early? Apparently, this has specific goals relating to the
struggle of ideas and papers in Moscow but this will not produce any
results in terms of substantial decisions.
http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33345#sthash.wgE0Llc7.dpuf
From: Baghdasarian