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HOMESTRETCH: EEU MEMBER STATES' PRESIDENTS TO CONFIRM ARMENIA'S ACCESSION
ANALYSIS | 22.12.14 | 11:21
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/59530/armenia_eurasian_union_analysis_russia_csto
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
On December 23, Moscow will host a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian
Council and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. At the meeting
of the Eurasian Council it is expected that Armenia's accession to
the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) will be confirmed and an agreement
on Kyrgyzstan's accession will be signed.
However, the day before these important meetings the presidents of
Belarus and Kazakhstan, Alexander Lukashenko and Nursultan Nazarbayev,
have decided to visit Ukraine, which, in fact, is at war with the
third member of the EEU - Russia. Moreover, Lukashenko already on
Sunday arrived in Kyiv and pledged full support for Ukrainian leader
Petro Poroshenko.
Nazarbayev also expressed a desire to become a mediator in settling
the Ukrainian-Russian dispute. Experts are wondering what these visits
are related to and how they will impact decisions on December 23.
The devaluation of the Russian ruble and the sharp economic downturn in
Russia have weakened the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin
in the Supreme Eurasian Council, and, as Western analysts suggest,
Belarus and Kazakhstan are trying to achieve greater rights for
themselves in the emerging EEU. Moreover, they often use for this
the factor of Armenia's membership, which has been sought by Putin
and for his consent to this membership Belarus President Lukashenko
already appears to have received a lot of discounts and incentives.
The parliaments of all three EEU member countries have ratified the
treaty on Armenia's accession, but the president are yet to sign the
ratification bills on December 23 and, apparently, Lukashenko and
Nazarbayev intend to achieve new preferences on the account of Armenia.
But what is the goal of the Belarus and Kazakh presidents' visits
to Kyiv? Maybe Lukashenko and Nazarbayev have decided to talk to
Poroshenko about the establishment of a kind of free trade zone?
Earlier it was reported that Russia had appealed to the European
Commission with a proposal to create a free trade area between the EU
and the EEU. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that it is quite
possible if Russia withdraws from Ukraine. Maybe Lukashenko went to
Kyiv to convey conditions of Russia's "withdrawal" from Ukraine?
Forecasts about the EEU that will be formally launched from January
1 are different - some view it as a "stillborn" project or a formal
alliance like the CIS, others argue that the project is too important
for Putin, and he will achieve its implementation at any cost.
However, one question remains open - will the international community,
particularly the United States, Europe and major Asian nations, wish
to recognize the EEU as an entity of international law? Will they wish
to conclude agreements not with different member nations of the EEU,
but with the Union itself, thus confirming the re-establishment of
a mini-USSR?
ANALYSIS | 22.12.14 | 11:21
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/59530/armenia_eurasian_union_analysis_russia_csto
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
On December 23, Moscow will host a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian
Council and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. At the meeting
of the Eurasian Council it is expected that Armenia's accession to
the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) will be confirmed and an agreement
on Kyrgyzstan's accession will be signed.
However, the day before these important meetings the presidents of
Belarus and Kazakhstan, Alexander Lukashenko and Nursultan Nazarbayev,
have decided to visit Ukraine, which, in fact, is at war with the
third member of the EEU - Russia. Moreover, Lukashenko already on
Sunday arrived in Kyiv and pledged full support for Ukrainian leader
Petro Poroshenko.
Nazarbayev also expressed a desire to become a mediator in settling
the Ukrainian-Russian dispute. Experts are wondering what these visits
are related to and how they will impact decisions on December 23.
The devaluation of the Russian ruble and the sharp economic downturn in
Russia have weakened the position of Russian President Vladimir Putin
in the Supreme Eurasian Council, and, as Western analysts suggest,
Belarus and Kazakhstan are trying to achieve greater rights for
themselves in the emerging EEU. Moreover, they often use for this
the factor of Armenia's membership, which has been sought by Putin
and for his consent to this membership Belarus President Lukashenko
already appears to have received a lot of discounts and incentives.
The parliaments of all three EEU member countries have ratified the
treaty on Armenia's accession, but the president are yet to sign the
ratification bills on December 23 and, apparently, Lukashenko and
Nazarbayev intend to achieve new preferences on the account of Armenia.
But what is the goal of the Belarus and Kazakh presidents' visits
to Kyiv? Maybe Lukashenko and Nazarbayev have decided to talk to
Poroshenko about the establishment of a kind of free trade zone?
Earlier it was reported that Russia had appealed to the European
Commission with a proposal to create a free trade area between the EU
and the EEU. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that it is quite
possible if Russia withdraws from Ukraine. Maybe Lukashenko went to
Kyiv to convey conditions of Russia's "withdrawal" from Ukraine?
Forecasts about the EEU that will be formally launched from January
1 are different - some view it as a "stillborn" project or a formal
alliance like the CIS, others argue that the project is too important
for Putin, and he will achieve its implementation at any cost.
However, one question remains open - will the international community,
particularly the United States, Europe and major Asian nations, wish
to recognize the EEU as an entity of international law? Will they wish
to conclude agreements not with different member nations of the EEU,
but with the Union itself, thus confirming the re-establishment of
a mini-USSR?