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Big Military Conflict: What Is Awaiting Armenia in 2015

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  • Big Military Conflict: What Is Awaiting Armenia in 2015

    Big Military Conflict: What Is Awaiting Armenia in 2015

    Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
    Comments - 04 January 2015, 01:08


    First and foremost, it should be noted that the past two years were so
    important and deciding that the next year's developments go without
    saying.

    In Eastern Europe the European Union will carry on the policy defined
    by the U.S. policy and interest. The Western community is likely to
    stop the policy of waiting as it has become more dangerous than it
    used to be and it must ensure limitations for Russia's expansion.

    Moscow has realized this and is discussing who the next leader of
    Russia will be, what policy he must carry out if it is taken into
    account that Putin has always been seen as an experimental and interim
    actor.

    The states of Eastern Europe will have a lot of opportunities to
    integrate with not only the European Union but also NATO as new
    partners. In addition, resolutions on domestic issues will be rejected
    because there are no signs of "color revolutions". It would have been
    useless because all the necessary priorities have been picked up, and
    the main figures have been "arranged" on the map.

    Some of these figures in Eastern Europe have received the status of
    actors, others were deprived of this status, and their countries have
    already been involved in comprehensible and expected projects.

    This time nobody will save Russia because nobody needs Russia. It will
    be limited to a new zone of external security.

    A new game will take place in the Black Sea-Caucasian region: though
    with some difficulty but Russia will be gradually ousted from there.
    The West will help rapprochement between Turkey and Russia, defining
    their status: Russia will be a regional and closed country and Turkey
    will be an adversary or even enemy of the Western society. Two
    countries become objects of the policy of dual containment.

    Russia will beware involvement in conflicts but it will not succeed
    fully. In the Near East they will do everything without Russia,
    preferring its involvement in Central Asia's affairs, keeping in mind
    Afghanistan. In addition, CSTO will most probably start to collapse
    because Russia intended to politicize this bloc excessively. The
    countries of Central Asia will realize that Russia is not capable of
    guaranteeing their security.

    Apparently, there will be a big military conflict between Armenia and
    Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan's armed forces will be defeated. Russia will
    try to use this to boost its role in the South Caucasus but it will
    have to admit losing its influence on Armenia.

    The West will launch more activities in the South Caucasus and NATO's
    military presence in the region will increase.

    Apparently, there will be a political assassination in Armenia. The
    moods of some political circles which are rather radical will be thus
    expressed.

    The year will be marked by revelation of what political organizations
    are linked to transnational organized crime, primarily in Eastern
    Europe which will try to use the services of these criminal
    organizations for political purposes. Someone will be too interested
    in working out such scenarios and may achieve success in propaganda
    and revelations.

    The close link between criminal centers and political centers of
    Eastern Europe will become known. Such a prospect is awaiting Armenia
    though they will try to do it within the framework of a "quiet
    intrigue" after Armenia's model. Everything will be clarified
    otherwise after Georgia's and Ukraine's model.

    Russia bewares losing control over Armenia aside from Georgia.
    Moscow's politicians will listen to better informed and knowledgeable
    organizations and will be ready to act in that direction. In 2015 the
    criminal world will become Moscow's "last refuge".

    Consistent elimination of Russian military and economic presence is
    awaiting Armenia, and conditions will be put forth to functionaries,
    the country, not politicians, who understand very well that there is
    no alternative to integration with the European Union and NATO. The
    Eurasian project will be ridiculed then and eventually collapse.

    The West will retain a lot of conditions of functioning of Armenia's
    financial system but unlike Belarus Armenia will be practically taken
    under care because creating a new economy is impossible without
    changing former functionaries. More exactly, they will be carrying out
    the objectives that will be set by international financial
    organizations.

    On the whole, the year is going to be favorable and fruitful, the
    prices of food will not be high.

    http://www.lragir.am/index/eng/0/comments/view/33374#sthash.7MjhA1nU.dpuf

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