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Q1 2015 - Everything Hinges On Nagorno-Karabakh

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  • Q1 2015 - Everything Hinges On Nagorno-Karabakh

    Caucasus Business Forecast Report
    January 1, 2015 Thursday

    Q1 2015 - Everything Hinges On Nagorno-Karabakh


    HIGHLIGHT: Attempts to win back the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave will
    remain the defining issue of Azerbaijani foreign and domestic policy
    through the medium term. No quick resolution is likely and, therefore,
    heightened tensions with Armenia have the potential to result in
    further small-scale armed clashes, with escalation not ruled out. This
    will continue to weigh heavily on Azerbaijan's long-term risk profile,
    which will deter investment despite progress on other fronts.



    BMI View: Attempts to win back the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave will
    remain the defining issue of Azerbaijani foreign and domestic policy
    through the medium term. No quick resolution is likely and, therefore,
    heightened tensions with Armenia have the potential to result in
    further small-scale armed clashes, with escalation not ruled out. This
    will continue to weigh heavily on Azerbaijan's long-term risk profile,
    which will deter investment despite progress on other fronts.

    Despite a relatively strong short-term outlook, we remain cautious on
    Azerbaijan's long-term political risk outlook, given ongoing elevated
    tensions with neighbour Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
    Since a war between the two countries in the 1990s (no peace deal has
    been signed), ethnic Armenian forces have held the territory in
    Nagorno-Karabakh in the Western part of Azerbaijan, establishing a
    government and holding regular elections.


    All Eyes On Nagorno-Karabakh
    Europe - Map Of Caucasus Region

    Download Table

    The issue remains - and will remain - a major impediment to the
    mitigation of political risk in the South Caucasus. The primary reason
    for this is the estimated 500,000 displaced Azerbaijanis, many of whom
    continue to live in temporary accommodation 19 years after the end of
    the war. This has resulted in intense domestic political pressure on
    the Azerbaijani government to take back the territory, exacerbated by
    the lack of open elections that means the leadership must be
    particularly sensitive to popular sentiment. Aggressive rhetoric from
    Baku is not uncommon and the government has ramped up military
    spending to US$3.7bn per year. Small-scale border clashes between
    Azerbaijani and ethnic Armenian forces - often resulting in multiple
    deaths - are not uncommon.

    Challenges And Threats To Stability

    Hot War: The major risk to political stability in Azerbaijan, and
    indeed in the wider Caucasus region, is the outbreak of interstate
    warfare with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Regular small-scale border
    skirmishes could conceivably escalate into something bigger, while
    aggressive rhetoric from both sides will ensure that tensions remain
    high. It is estimated that 20,000 combat-ready troops are deployed on
    each side of the border, often separated by just 50 metres, and the
    fact that the soldiers are raised on radically different
    interpretations of the region's recent history does not lend itself to
    moderation.

    That said, the outbreak of war remains outside our core scenario. One
    reason for this is the regular contact between the Armenian and
    Azerbaijani presidents since 2008 under the auspices of Russian
    President Dmitry Medvedev, and his predecessor and successor Vladimir
    Putin. The personal and public involvement of a powerful neighbouring
    country that has relatively strong relations with both countries
    (particularly Armenia) lends credibility to the peace process while
    also mitigating the risks of a major breakdown. More importantly than
    diplomatic initiatives, however, is the fact that the interests of
    major regional players - Russia and Turkey - are in line with a
    mitigation of tensions and the establishment of a lasting resolution.
    Following the 2008 war with Georgia, Moscow is keen to reinforce its
    credibility as a responsible actor in the region, while also seeking
    to improve relations with Baku for the purposes of energy security.
    For Ankara, a greater role in Caucasian security issues is a priority,
    while it is also keen to keep Baku on side, again for reasons related
    to gas. These factors should ensure that Baku feels it is getting a
    fair hearing, while also discouraging any pre-emptive attack on
    Nagorno-Karabakh.

    Ructions With Turkey: We believe relations between Azerbaijan and
    Turkey could deteriorate over the medium term, which would have the
    potential to harm Azerbaijan's economic and political risk profile,
    given the importance of its implicit backing from Ankara in
    international affairs. Traditionally, Baku and Ankara have enjoyed
    strong bilateral ties, symbolised by the popular slogan 'one nation,
    two states'. Indeed, the two have similar cultures and languages, and
    Ankara has had no diplomatic relations with Yerevan since 1993, in
    solidarity with Baku.

    However, an increase in tensions between the two has come about since
    Ankara decided to pursue better relations with Yerevan, culminating in
    the signing of two protocols on the re-establishment and development
    of diplomatic ties in Zurich in October 2009. Baku was incensed that
    Ankara had signed the protocols without demanding concessions on
    Nagorno-Karabakh in return and promptly threatened to hike prices for
    gas exports to Turkey. Turkish flags in Azerbaijan were also taken
    down. Although tensions have mitigated substantially since, with the
    signing of a key gas deal in Istanbul in June 2010 and the scheduled
    construction of the Trans-Anatolian pipelines (TANAP), we believe
    risks remain. Any perception that Ankara's support for Baku has
    weakened would potentially reduce the latter's clout in regional
    affairs.

    Relations With Iran: We expect relations with Iran to remain tense
    through the medium term for a number of reasons, which will further
    weigh on Azerbaijan's risk profile. Foremost among these is Iran's
    desire to increase its leverage over Baku both to increase access to
    Azerbaijani oil and to boost Tehran's leverage over Moscow - something
    that it currently lacks. In addition, Tehran will likely remain wary
    of Azerbaijan's potential ability to destabilise Iran, given the
    latter's large Azeri population (there are more Azeris in Iran than in
    Azerbaijan). A further major sticking point between the two is Israel,
    which will likely further fuel suspicion towards Baku in Tehran, given
    that Azerbaijan pursues strong relations with Israel. Tehran has
    accused Baku of allowing Israeli listening posts to be established
    along its border with Iran while, for its part, Azerbaijan has
    expressed discontent with Armenian-Iranian gas cooperation.

    Democratic Limitations: Despite major improvements in living standards
    on the back of rising oil revenues in recent years ( see chart), there
    are signs that popular discontent with the government remains fairly
    elevated.


    Living Conditions Improving
    Azerbaijan - Quality Of Life Indicators

    Download Table

    While no repeat of the violent protests of 2003 have yet been
    witnessed, the lack of a strong opposition in parliament and President
    Ilham Aliyev's strengthening hold on power have resulted in a number
    of street protests in Baku in recent years. The authorities' control
    on public gatherings outside the capital is much stronger, although
    the protests in Ismayilli presented a new challenge to Aliyev.
    Government critics are regularly harassed according to human rights
    gorups, while trade unions are weak and media freedom has been
    questioned by western observers. Although the government has so far
    managed to handle domestic opposition relatively easily, we do not
    believe democratic institutions are sufficiently well developed to
    handle major public protest at this juncture, should it come about.

    Corruption: Widespread allegations of corruption have helped to foster
    resentment against the government. Azerbaijan came in at 127th place
    out of 177 countries in Transparency International's 2013 Corruption
    Perceptions Index, well below neighbours Georgia (55 th) and Armenia
    (94 th). Given that those unhappy with government policy are often
    unable to channel their concerns democratically, we see the potential
    for further disenchantment to threaten political stability, curtailing
    the government's policy agenda and damaging investor confidence.

    Domestic Islamist Threat: Poverty, corruption and other concerns have
    contributed to a growing militant Islamist movement in Azerbaijan.
    While we see this as small at present, we nevertheless believe it has
    the potential to grow significantly, which would pose major risks to
    political stability. Although secular tendencies in Azerbaijan are
    among the strongest of any majority Muslim country (religious
    involvement with politics is forbidden by law), the militant minority
    is growing. In October 2007, the government claimed that it had
    thwarted a major attack against Western diplomatic missions in Baku,
    while three people were killed in an attack on a mosque in 2008.
    Rallies and protests using religious slogans have also become more
    common on the streets of Baku.

    Unclear Borders: The fact that Azerbaijan's borders with neighbouring
    states are often ill-defined will remain a risk to political
    stability. This is a particular problem given elevated regional
    tensions, while the unclear divisions between states make border
    controls difficult, limiting the government's ability to monitor the
    potential arrival of members of radical terrorist groups.

    Ratings: Stability Not Assured In Medium Term

    Our political risk ratings make a clear distinction between what we
    see as short-term stability and longer-term risks. In the near term,
    robust oil revenues will allow sufficient social transfers to maintain
    social stability, which will in turn provide the government with room
    to continue its reforms of the business environment and increase its
    attractiveness to foreign investors. Our short-term political risk
    rating for Azerbaijan is 70.3 (out of 100), one of the highest in the
    Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region excluding the CE4. In line
    with our key views, Azerbaijan scores most strongly on the 'policy
    continuity' and 'policymaking process' components of our ratings - at
    80.0 and 76.7 out of 100 respectively - while faring less well on
    'security and external threats', where it tallies just 46.7 out of
    100.

    Over the longer term, we are less assured about political stability.
    Although we continue to expect a mitigation of regional tensions at
    some point, we believe the security situation in the Caucasus could
    get worse before it gets better. This would have a greater relative
    impact on political stability in Azerbaijan than in Georgia and
    Armenia, in our view, given that its institutions are less well
    prepared to handle the domestic implications of heightened tensions.
    Azerbaijan's long-term political risk rating of 49.0 out of 100 puts
    it lower down the CEE rankings, albeit still ahead of Georgia.

    Azerbaijan fares worst in our 'characteristics of polity' (30.8 out of
    100) category due to the relatively underdeveloped and closed nature
    of its political and legal systems as well as the media. It also
    struggles on the 'characteristics of society' component (52.5 out of
    100), thanks to the potential for domestic opposition groups -
    particularly Islamists - to hamper the policymaking process and due to
    ongoing wealth disparities that have the potential to fuel
    disenchantment with the government.

    Our concern that Azerbaijan's institutions may be ill-equipped to deal
    with the emergence or escalation of internal and external threats
    relative to other CEE nations is demonstrated by the chart below,
    which indicates the difference between our long- and short-term
    political ratings. Aside from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, we believe
    Azerbaijan is the CEE country where the political risk situation has
    the greatest potential to deteriorate.

    Scenarios For Political Change

    While we believe domestic pressures from disenchanted groups could
    impact the policy formation process in Azerbaijan through the medium
    term, we forecast the major risk to political stability will come from
    outside the country. Specifically, tensions with Armenia over the
    disputed Nagorno-Karabakh enclave will dominate Azerbaijan's foreign
    and domestic policy as long as hundreds of thousands of internally
    displaced Azerbaijanis are unable to return to their former homes in
    the region.

    Best Case Scenario - Mitigation Of Regional Tensions: The best case
    scenario for Azerbaijan's long-term political risk profile is a
    resolution to its dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. Any solution would be
    threefold, involving an agreement on the terms of a future referendum
    for the region's inhabitants, a roadmap for the return of displaced
    Azerbaijanis to their former homes under the protection of a
    multinational peacekeeping force as well as a mutually accepted
    decision on who will control the Lachin corridor, a land route between
    Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

    This would require two things. First, the continued involvement of
    regional heavyweights Russia and Turkey, as well as major Western
    countries such as the US and France (which, along with Russia, make up
    the OSCE Minsk Group charged with coordinating discussions between the
    disputed parties). It would also require the involvement of the ethnic
    Armenian government of Nagorno-Karabakh - something that Baku may find
    difficult to stomach. Second, it would require a major investment of
    political capital by the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Both
    are under intense domestic pressure to ensure that their key goals are
    met over the enclave. Given that many of the countries' demands are
    incompatible (ie Baku wants Nagorno-Karabakh to remain part of
    Azerbaijan while Armenia wants the future referendum to include the
    possibility of full independence), this will require the presidents to
    go against popular domestic sentiment to secure a deal.

    Should this scenario play out, we would expect it to substantially
    improve Azerbaijan's political risk profile and significantly mitigate
    regional tensions. This would bolster investor confidence, paving the
    way for a ramping up on foreign direct investment, aiding the
    government's attempt to diversify the economy away from its dependence
    on oil and gas revenues.

    Intermediate Scenario - Tensions Kept In Check: A far more likely
    scenario is for tensions to be kept in check, without a major
    improvement in relations or significant progress towards a mutually
    acceptable solution on the enclave's future status. This would involve
    the two sides continuing to talk and for Russia, Turkey and key
    Western countries to maintain an important role in the dialogue. Under
    this scenario, a stable platform would be provided for the discussion
    of key sticking points, which would increase the chances of a
    breakthrough.

    The two sides continuing to talk would in itself increase investor
    confidence, as long as the meetings are conducted regularly and
    produce evidence of progress. In tandem with Azerbaijan's improving
    business environment, this would bolster investor sentiment. At this
    juncture, we see this scenario as the most likely to play out.

    Worst Case Scenario - War: While the outbreak of war is always
    difficult to predict, we believe that if war was to break out anywhere
    in CEE in the next five years, it will be in Nagorno-Karabakh between
    Armenia and Azerbaijan. As long as both sides continue to employ
    aggressive rhetoric and regular exchanges of fire occur on the border,
    there will always be the chance of a resumption of interstate war.

    We caution, though, that this is highly unlikely to happen. This is
    mainly because Russia - which still has 3,000 troops stationed in
    Armenia - would likely step in, while Turkey would also likely make a
    major effort to prevent an outbreak of fighting. The risk is that the
    number of troops stationed on the border in close proximity to each
    other could mean the situation would develop too rapidly for
    international actors to be able to influence events, meaning that by
    the time Moscow, Ankara and Western capitals were able to step in, the
    damage may have already been done.

    As long as the threat of war remains - and we fully expect it to -
    investor risk sentiment will remain elevated and Azerbaijan will
    struggle to attract the levels of foreign direct investment that it
    needs to diversify its economy away from energy export. This will keep
    it dependent on external demand, which poses the risk that a global
    slowdown in economic growth results in a stronger domestic opposition
    that could, in turn, hurt the government's reform agenda.

    An outbreak of interstate warfare would hammer investor confidence,
    leading to a massive withdrawal of funds from Azerbaijan and the wider
    region, as well as undoing much of the economic growth that has been
    achieved in the past 10 years. While Azerbaijan is not as dependent on
    foreign capital flows as Georgia, the latter's experience of the 2008
    war with Russia emphasises the extent to which warfare can damage
    investor sentiment.


    Political Overview Table
    System of Government Presidential Republic (five-year term);
    Unicameral 125-seat Milli Mejlis (National Assembly) (five-year term);
    Universal suffrage. Executive power rests with the President.
    Head of State President Ilham Aliyev; Three five-year terms
    Head of Government Prime Minister Artur Rasizade
    Last Election Parliamentary - November 7 2010
    Presidential - October 9 2013
    Government Formation Council of Ministers: appointed by the President
    and confirmed by the National Assembly
    Key Figures Finance - Samir Sharifov; Internal Affairs - Ramil Usubov;
    Defence - Zakir Hasanov; Foreign Affairs - Elmar Mammadyarov; Energy -
    Natiq Aliyev; Justice - Fikret Mamedov; Chairman of the National Bank
    - Elman Rustamov
    Key Political Forces (number of seats in parliament) New Azerbaijan
    Party (Yeni) (72): Ruling political party. Founded by former President
    Heydar Aliyev in 1993.
    Civil Solidarity Party (3): opposition party which stands for the
    civil unification of Azerbaijani people. Established in 1992 by Sabir
    Rustamkhanly.
    Motherland (2): Small pro-presidential party. The party was founded in
    1992, and is led by former First Deputy Minister of Labor and Social
    Protection, Fazail Agamali.
    Independents (48)
    Next Election Parliamentary - 2015
    Presidential - 2018
    Ongoing Disputes Nagorno-Karabakh
    Key Relations/ Treaties Member of the Commonwealth of Independent
    States. Member of the Organisation of the Black Sea Economic
    Cooperation (BSEC)
    BMI Short-Term Political Risk Rating 70.8
    BMI Structural Political Risk Rating 49.0
    Download Table

    Source: CIA World Factbook, BMI

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