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Stratfor
Jan 31 2015
Belarus and Armenia Re-Evaluate Relations with Russia
Summary
Recent developments indicate that two of Moscow's most loyal allies in
the former Soviet periphery, Belarus and Armenia, may be reassessing
their ties with Russia in light of the country's standoff with the
West. During a Jan. 29 press conference, Belarusian President
Aleksandr Lukashenko said that Minsk could pull out of the Moscow-led
Eurasian Economic Union if agreements are not kept, but also
emphasized that the country's integration with Russia is deep and
strong. Meanwhile, Armenia has faced growing difficulties in its
conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russia plays a
key role. Both countries are likely to maintain their strategic
orientation toward Russia, but Belarus and Armenia will continuously
re-evaluate their positions depending on how the broader struggle
between Moscow and the West plays out.
Analysis
The crisis in Ukraine has had far-reaching repercussions. Relations
between Russia and the West are at their lowest point since the Cold
War. Sanctions related to the crisis, along with a sizable drop in
global oil prices, have weakened Russia's economy severely. Moreover,
the crisis has brought Ukraine and other former Soviet countries
closer to Western institutions. Ukraine is receiving increasing
economic and security support from the West; NATO has increased troop
rotations and military exercises in the Baltic states; and Moldova and
Georgia have joined Ukraine in signing EU association and free trade
agreements. Even Azerbaijan, which traditionally has balanced between
Russia and the West, is being courted to expand energy ties with the
European Union via the Southern Corridor route.
Within Eastern Europe and the Caucasus -- the two regions that the
European Union's Eastern Partnership program specifically targeted --
only two countries remain aligned with Russia: Belarus and Armenia.
Both countries have grown closer to Russia following the outbreak of
the Ukrainian crisis, becoming members of the Eurasian Economic Union
that launched at the start of 2015. Both states have also emphasized
their strategic alignment with Russia, particularly regarding military
and security issues. Yet Belarus and Armenia may increasingly hedge
their positions as tension between Russia and the West continues to
climb.
Belarus' Calculations
In Belarus, Lukashenko's government has long been at odds with the
West. The European Union and United States imposed sanctions on
Belarus following the country's controversial elections in 2010,
during which security forces cracked down on anti-Lukashenko
demonstrations. Belarus was also the first and most vocal country in
rebuffing the European Union's Eastern Partnership program; Lukashenko
saw the initiative as a way to promote democracy and undermine his
political position at home.
Yet since the ouster of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich
who -- like Lukashenko -- the West saw as an overly authoritarian,
pro-Russian figure, the Belarusian president has adjusted his position
regarding the European Union and United States. Lukashenko made
Belarus a key mediator in negotiations between Russia and the West
over Ukraine. Belarus also has cautiously opened a political dialogue
with many Western countries, leading to a notable increase in economic
deals between Minsk and several EU countries.
Simultaneously, Moscow's growing financial woes and periodic economic
disputes between Belarus and Russia have caused Lukashenko concern. In
his Jan. 29 press conference, Lukashenko emphasized that though
economic integration between the two countries is strong, trade wars
within the Eurasian Economic Union cannot be allowed, and that Minsk
does not exclude leaving the bloc if "agreements in it are not kept."
Still, Russia's ability and willingness to provide financial
assistance to Belarus -- Moscow is slated to give Minsk around $1
billion this year -- are critical.
In addition, Belarus adopted legislation Jan. 26 that would consider
the appearance of any armed foreign fighters on the country's soil a
declaration of war, regardless of whether they are official military
troops or not. The context for this legislation is clearly the Ukraine
conflict, where volunteer fighters and non-official participants have
fought on both sides. For example, the Ukrainian security forces have
been accompanied by volunteer battalions, including fighters from
foreign countries such as Poland or Georgia -- a worrying sign for
Lukashenko. The new legislation also prompted media speculation that
the new law is directed toward Russia, given the presence of "little
green men" -- the unmarked and unofficial Russian military personnel
fighting in Ukraine. However, Lukashenko is not likely concerned about
Russia, since Russian troops are already stationed in Belarus and a
new Russian airbase is set to open in the country in 2016.
Lukashenko clearly has become concerned about his position, especially
as fighting flares up once again in eastern Ukraine. With military
buildups growing near Belarus' borders to the east and west, a
spillover of violence from either direction cannot be ruled out. More
important, the West's continued calls for political reforms have
Lukashenko worried that Western countries could increase pressure on
his government, just as Russia is becoming increasingly alienated from
the West and as presidential elections set for the end of 2015 draw
closer. But Belarus is a strategic asset for Russia, especially with
Ukraine in limbo and the Baltic states in NATO. Belarus has so far
maintained its strategic alignment with Russia, but this year will
shape Lukashenko's political position domestically and in the
country's careful maneuvering between Moscow and the West.
Armenia's Concerns
Armenia has long been strategically aligned with Russia. A key driver
behind Yerevan's orientation toward Moscow is Armenia's conflict with
Azerbaijan over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. After
Armenia defeated Azerbaijan in a six-year war over the region, Russia
became Armenia's de facto security guarantor. The 5,000 Russian troops
stationed in Armenia have served to check Azerbaijan's ambitions to
reclaim the territory and also to guard Armenia's borders with the
larger Caucasus powers of Turkey and Iran.
However, the Ukraine crisis has affected the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Fighting has increased along the line of contact between
Armenia and Azerbaijan; violence spiked in August 2014, and in
November 2014 Azerbaijani forces shot down an Armenian helicopter.
Azerbaijan has gained more room to maneuver in the conflict because of
its sought-after energy resources and Russia's focus on the Ukrainian
theater. These factors have caused Armenia to question Russia's
commitment as a security guarantor, especially concerning Moscow's
lack of response to the helicopter shoot-down. Armenia has not
launched any major reprisal attacks, and on Jan. 27 Armenian Defense
Minister Seyran Ohanian admitted that the helicopter that was shot
down had deviated from its course and said that officials were
dismissed as a result. This startling and uncharacteristic admission
shows that Armenia may be recalculating its position in relation to
Russia -- something that the West and Turkey could try to capitalize
on.
Still, Armenia has been careful not to stray too far from Russia.
Despite a Russian soldier's recent killing of an Armenian family in
Gyumri, which has generated controversy and demonstrations in Armenia,
Yerevan has stood by Moscow. Ohanian said the incident "should not
drive a wedge in the Armenian-Russian relations," adding that Russia's
military presence in Armenia "is solving a larger regional issue."
Russia's military backing is crucial to Armenia, but continuation or
escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict -- such as Azerbaijani
forces' alleged shoot-down of an Armenian unmanned aerial vehicle Jan.
29 -- will test Yerevan's resolve.
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/belarus-and-armenia-re-evaluate-relations-russia
From: Baghdasarian
Jan 31 2015
Belarus and Armenia Re-Evaluate Relations with Russia
Summary
Recent developments indicate that two of Moscow's most loyal allies in
the former Soviet periphery, Belarus and Armenia, may be reassessing
their ties with Russia in light of the country's standoff with the
West. During a Jan. 29 press conference, Belarusian President
Aleksandr Lukashenko said that Minsk could pull out of the Moscow-led
Eurasian Economic Union if agreements are not kept, but also
emphasized that the country's integration with Russia is deep and
strong. Meanwhile, Armenia has faced growing difficulties in its
conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russia plays a
key role. Both countries are likely to maintain their strategic
orientation toward Russia, but Belarus and Armenia will continuously
re-evaluate their positions depending on how the broader struggle
between Moscow and the West plays out.
Analysis
The crisis in Ukraine has had far-reaching repercussions. Relations
between Russia and the West are at their lowest point since the Cold
War. Sanctions related to the crisis, along with a sizable drop in
global oil prices, have weakened Russia's economy severely. Moreover,
the crisis has brought Ukraine and other former Soviet countries
closer to Western institutions. Ukraine is receiving increasing
economic and security support from the West; NATO has increased troop
rotations and military exercises in the Baltic states; and Moldova and
Georgia have joined Ukraine in signing EU association and free trade
agreements. Even Azerbaijan, which traditionally has balanced between
Russia and the West, is being courted to expand energy ties with the
European Union via the Southern Corridor route.
Within Eastern Europe and the Caucasus -- the two regions that the
European Union's Eastern Partnership program specifically targeted --
only two countries remain aligned with Russia: Belarus and Armenia.
Both countries have grown closer to Russia following the outbreak of
the Ukrainian crisis, becoming members of the Eurasian Economic Union
that launched at the start of 2015. Both states have also emphasized
their strategic alignment with Russia, particularly regarding military
and security issues. Yet Belarus and Armenia may increasingly hedge
their positions as tension between Russia and the West continues to
climb.
Belarus' Calculations
In Belarus, Lukashenko's government has long been at odds with the
West. The European Union and United States imposed sanctions on
Belarus following the country's controversial elections in 2010,
during which security forces cracked down on anti-Lukashenko
demonstrations. Belarus was also the first and most vocal country in
rebuffing the European Union's Eastern Partnership program; Lukashenko
saw the initiative as a way to promote democracy and undermine his
political position at home.
Yet since the ouster of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich
who -- like Lukashenko -- the West saw as an overly authoritarian,
pro-Russian figure, the Belarusian president has adjusted his position
regarding the European Union and United States. Lukashenko made
Belarus a key mediator in negotiations between Russia and the West
over Ukraine. Belarus also has cautiously opened a political dialogue
with many Western countries, leading to a notable increase in economic
deals between Minsk and several EU countries.
Simultaneously, Moscow's growing financial woes and periodic economic
disputes between Belarus and Russia have caused Lukashenko concern. In
his Jan. 29 press conference, Lukashenko emphasized that though
economic integration between the two countries is strong, trade wars
within the Eurasian Economic Union cannot be allowed, and that Minsk
does not exclude leaving the bloc if "agreements in it are not kept."
Still, Russia's ability and willingness to provide financial
assistance to Belarus -- Moscow is slated to give Minsk around $1
billion this year -- are critical.
In addition, Belarus adopted legislation Jan. 26 that would consider
the appearance of any armed foreign fighters on the country's soil a
declaration of war, regardless of whether they are official military
troops or not. The context for this legislation is clearly the Ukraine
conflict, where volunteer fighters and non-official participants have
fought on both sides. For example, the Ukrainian security forces have
been accompanied by volunteer battalions, including fighters from
foreign countries such as Poland or Georgia -- a worrying sign for
Lukashenko. The new legislation also prompted media speculation that
the new law is directed toward Russia, given the presence of "little
green men" -- the unmarked and unofficial Russian military personnel
fighting in Ukraine. However, Lukashenko is not likely concerned about
Russia, since Russian troops are already stationed in Belarus and a
new Russian airbase is set to open in the country in 2016.
Lukashenko clearly has become concerned about his position, especially
as fighting flares up once again in eastern Ukraine. With military
buildups growing near Belarus' borders to the east and west, a
spillover of violence from either direction cannot be ruled out. More
important, the West's continued calls for political reforms have
Lukashenko worried that Western countries could increase pressure on
his government, just as Russia is becoming increasingly alienated from
the West and as presidential elections set for the end of 2015 draw
closer. But Belarus is a strategic asset for Russia, especially with
Ukraine in limbo and the Baltic states in NATO. Belarus has so far
maintained its strategic alignment with Russia, but this year will
shape Lukashenko's political position domestically and in the
country's careful maneuvering between Moscow and the West.
Armenia's Concerns
Armenia has long been strategically aligned with Russia. A key driver
behind Yerevan's orientation toward Moscow is Armenia's conflict with
Azerbaijan over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. After
Armenia defeated Azerbaijan in a six-year war over the region, Russia
became Armenia's de facto security guarantor. The 5,000 Russian troops
stationed in Armenia have served to check Azerbaijan's ambitions to
reclaim the territory and also to guard Armenia's borders with the
larger Caucasus powers of Turkey and Iran.
However, the Ukraine crisis has affected the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. Fighting has increased along the line of contact between
Armenia and Azerbaijan; violence spiked in August 2014, and in
November 2014 Azerbaijani forces shot down an Armenian helicopter.
Azerbaijan has gained more room to maneuver in the conflict because of
its sought-after energy resources and Russia's focus on the Ukrainian
theater. These factors have caused Armenia to question Russia's
commitment as a security guarantor, especially concerning Moscow's
lack of response to the helicopter shoot-down. Armenia has not
launched any major reprisal attacks, and on Jan. 27 Armenian Defense
Minister Seyran Ohanian admitted that the helicopter that was shot
down had deviated from its course and said that officials were
dismissed as a result. This startling and uncharacteristic admission
shows that Armenia may be recalculating its position in relation to
Russia -- something that the West and Turkey could try to capitalize
on.
Still, Armenia has been careful not to stray too far from Russia.
Despite a Russian soldier's recent killing of an Armenian family in
Gyumri, which has generated controversy and demonstrations in Armenia,
Yerevan has stood by Moscow. Ohanian said the incident "should not
drive a wedge in the Armenian-Russian relations," adding that Russia's
military presence in Armenia "is solving a larger regional issue."
Russia's military backing is crucial to Armenia, but continuation or
escalation of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict -- such as Azerbaijani
forces' alleged shoot-down of an Armenian unmanned aerial vehicle Jan.
29 -- will test Yerevan's resolve.
https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/belarus-and-armenia-re-evaluate-relations-russia
From: Baghdasarian