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Armenia-Turkey: War of words

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  • Armenia-Turkey: War of words

    Al Jazeera, Qatar
    Jan 31 2015

    Armenia-Turkey: War of words

    As Armenian genocide centenary approaches, there are testy exchanges
    between Ankara and Yerevan.

    31 Jan 2015 06:40 GMT
    Richard Giragosian,founding director of the Regional Studies Centre,
    an independent think tank in Yerevan, Armenia.

    Looking ahead, it is clear that this year promises to be a pivotal
    year for Turkey. Regarding the Armenian issue, Turkey will face an
    unprecedented challenge as the 100th anniversary of the Armenian
    genocide will be marked by a symbolically significant series of
    commemorations throughout the world. Given the emotional power of the
    centenary, only amplified by commemorative events in both Armenia and
    Turkey, the Turkish government will be hard pressed to maintain its
    official policy regarding the Armenian genocide.

    Given that backdrop, it seems clear that the Turkish government will
    seek to "weather the storm" of 2015, and only after the commemoration
    passes, consider returning to the process of diplomatic engagement
    with Armenia.

    Nevertheless, there are some smaller steps that each side can take to
    ensure that the broader political environment is conducive to a return
    to the "normalisation process". Perhaps in light of this realisation,
    in recent weeks, there has been a sudden and dramatic exchange of
    diplomatic messages between Ankara and Yerevan.

    Broader political environment

    First, in a message from the Turkish government, the Armenian
    president was extended a rare invitation from his Turkish counterpart,
    to attend a special ceremony marking the 100th anniversary of World
    War I's Gallipoli campaign. Although the invitation was one of more
    than 100 such invitations to world leaders, some have welcomed the
    move as a new diplomatic opening for the stalled process of
    "normalisation" between Turkey and Armenia.

    And in a general sense, the invitation could have been a fresh
    opportunity for diplomatic engagement, all the more welcome given the
    absence of official diplomatic relations between the two countries.
    But the timing of the Gallipoli invitation could not have been worse.

    Armenians mark anniversary of mass killings

    The bad timing stems from the Turkish decision to hold its own
    Gallipoli commemoration on the same day as Armenians around the world
    mark the anniversary of the start of the Armenian genocide in 1915.

    And with Ankara's invitations to over 110 world leaders, it seems
    poised for a duel with Yerevan, which is gathering its own roster of
    international guests to come to Armenia on the same day for its
    genocide remembrance ceremony.

    For his part, the Armenian president had little choice but to reject
    the invitation, and reminded his Turkish counterparts of his own
    standing, but unanswered invitation to visit Armenia for the same
    time, which he had extended much earlier.

    It was against this background of dueling ceremonies that Armenia's
    president issued an immediate rebuttal to his invitation from his
    Turkish counterpart. A second, apparently follow-up message was then
    delivered by Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, calling on "all
    Armenians, and invite all those who believe in Turkish-Armenian
    friendship to contribute to a new beginning".

    The offer, coinciding with the eighth anniversary of the tragic murder
    of respected journalist Hrant Dink, embraced a spirit of commemoration
    and tragedy that was "guided by the seeds of friendship he sowed, we
    wish to open new paths into hearts and minds".

    Inhumane consequences

    Many have rejected Davutoglu's approach of focusing on the "events of
    1915" and "the inhumane consequences of the relocation policies
    essentially enforced under wartime circumstances", and dismissed his
    concept of "shared pain" as an unacceptable and dangerous equivalence
    between the victims and the perpetrators of the genocide.

    Yet both the April 2014 statement by then-Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
    Erdogan and this recent statement by Davutoglu, deserve a response.
    First, the Erdogan statement on the Armenian genocide surprised many.
    Although the statement clearly did not go far enough, it was both
    unexpected and unprecedented. That statement not only offered a "safer
    space" within which to discuss the genocide issue, it also broadened
    the constituency for dialogue by sending a message not only to
    Armenians but also to Erdogan's own base of supporters.

    Each declaration not only offers and expands the space for dialogue
    and engagement, but also helps to at least 'sustain the momentum' and
    to foster a new environment more conductive for both sides to
    re-engage.

    It also established an important new precedent, whereby every Turkish
    prime minister will be expected to make a similar statement timed with
    each April 24 commemoration of the Armenian genocide.

    Each declaration not only offers and expands the space for dialogue
    and engagement, but also helps to at least "sustain the momentum" and
    to foster a new environment more conductive for both sides to
    re-engage.

    Nevertheless, looking back, diplomatic engagement has been meagre and
    marginal, with no follow-up and little follow-up to the December 2013
    visit by then-Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in what was the first
    high-level visit from Turkey to Armenia in five years.

    And in a move by the Armenian side, the decision by Armenian Foreign
    Minister Eduard Nalbandian to attend Erdogan's August 2014
    inauguration ceremony was important. The presence of the Armenian
    foreign minister was significant, despite the fact that Turkey has yet
    to establish diplomatic relations or open the closed border with
    Armenia.

    There are still signs of hope, but only once the centenary of the
    Armenian genocide passes. Equally significant will be Turkey's coming
    June elections, which may offer a fresh opening for a more
    self-confident Turkey to re-engage with Armenia.

    At the same time, the future of both Turkey's broader regional policy
    and its more specific policy towards Armenian-Turkish normalisation
    are ever more hostage to the outcome of domestic Turkish politics.

    Richard Giragosian is the founding director of the Regional Studies
    Center, an independent think-tank in Yerevan, Armenia.

    The views expressed in this article are the author's own and do not
    necessarily reflect Al Jazeera's editorial policy.


    http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/01/armenia-turkey-war-genocide-centenary-150131061335250.html

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