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THE NATIONAL INTEREST: STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE AND FAVORABLE DEFENSIBLE TERRAIN IN NAGORNO KARABAKH ARE UNDER ARMENIAN CONTROL
14:03 10/04/2015 >> MISCELLANEOUS
The situation in the Southern Caucasus is heating up, and the
possibility of military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is
increasing, Jack Mulcaire, an expert on international relations,
writes in his article published on the website of the magazine The
National Interest.
The author writes that in the early 1990s, ethnic tensions between
Christian Armenians and Muslim Azerbaijanis in the area resulted in a
war, where the Armenian side won. Nagorno Karabakh has been de-facto
independent since the end of the war. The mostly Armenian population
of Nagorno Karabakh Republic is supported by Armenia. Despite the
ceasefire, the war never officially ended, and Azerbaijan still
vigorously disputes the status of Nagorno Karabakh, to put it mildly.
Armenia is also unlikely to relinquish any land.
It is pointed out in the article that both sides have significantly
rearmed their forces since the war. After the ceasefire, hundreds
have died in raids and exchanges of fire, which are increasing in
frequency. Since the summer of 2014, these dangerous clashes have taken
place almost daily. On November 2014 Azerbaijani forces shot down an
Armenian Mi-24 helicopter and there was fighting on the ground as the
Armenians attempted to recover bodies from no-men land. On January 31,
2015, the Nagorno Karabakh Defense Army launched a preemptive attack
on several Azerbaijani positions and killed a number of Azerbaijani
soldiers.
The author highlights that the Azerbaijani side has significantly
increased its military spending over the recent years, and this trend
has not abated, despite the global decline of oil prices. Israel
has been one of Azerbaijan's strongest defense partners for several
years now, and as a result of this relationship, the Armed Forces of
Azerbaijan have acquired Israeli drones.
In its turn, Armenian military is also spending as if it predicts
a war. Armenia and Russia carefully preserve the uncertainty about
the acquisition of Iskanders, which could provide a way for Armenia
to hit the Azerbaijani Air Force on the ground in Azerbaijan. Since
2012, Armenia has also invested heavily in Russian-supplied upgrades
for its large numbers of existing armor and artillery and in
domestically-produced drone systems.
The author also points to the strategic and very defensible terrain
of Armenia. "Armenian forces already control all of Karabakh's main
roads, population centers and the sources of water and electricity. To
reach them, Azeri forces would have to cross steep, rugged mountains
that are heavily fortified by well-equipped local Armenian forces. To
the north, the Armenian zone of Karabakh is accessible only via the
treacherous Omar Pass over the Murovdag mountain range. Azeri forces
entering Karabakh from the east would have to pass through a hole in
the mountains that is only about 2.5 kilometer squares wide at the
town of Askeran in order to reach Karabakh's main city of Stepanakert.
Getting past these geographic barriers will not be easy. Karabakh's
water and electricity originate from the hydroelectric dam at
the Sarsang Reservoir, and the main road to Armenia proper passes
through the Lachin corridor, both of which are even farther and
more inaccessible for any hypothetical Azeri operation in Karabakh,"
the article reads.
The Armenian side already controls the territory it wants, meanwhile,
Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev "is putting out a steady stream
of aggressive rhetoric, insulting Armenia" and promising that his
country will recapture Nagorno Karabakh. The frontline in Karabakh
is only becoming more dangerous, the author concludes.
Related:
Serzh Sargsyan: One cannot eliminate the consequences of this conflict
without addressing its causes
Hillary Clinton: US committed to work through Minsk Group to resolve
NK conflict
http://www.panorama.am/en/politics/2015/04/10/azerbaijan-armenia-nkr/
14:03 10/04/2015 >> MISCELLANEOUS
The situation in the Southern Caucasus is heating up, and the
possibility of military conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is
increasing, Jack Mulcaire, an expert on international relations,
writes in his article published on the website of the magazine The
National Interest.
The author writes that in the early 1990s, ethnic tensions between
Christian Armenians and Muslim Azerbaijanis in the area resulted in a
war, where the Armenian side won. Nagorno Karabakh has been de-facto
independent since the end of the war. The mostly Armenian population
of Nagorno Karabakh Republic is supported by Armenia. Despite the
ceasefire, the war never officially ended, and Azerbaijan still
vigorously disputes the status of Nagorno Karabakh, to put it mildly.
Armenia is also unlikely to relinquish any land.
It is pointed out in the article that both sides have significantly
rearmed their forces since the war. After the ceasefire, hundreds
have died in raids and exchanges of fire, which are increasing in
frequency. Since the summer of 2014, these dangerous clashes have taken
place almost daily. On November 2014 Azerbaijani forces shot down an
Armenian Mi-24 helicopter and there was fighting on the ground as the
Armenians attempted to recover bodies from no-men land. On January 31,
2015, the Nagorno Karabakh Defense Army launched a preemptive attack
on several Azerbaijani positions and killed a number of Azerbaijani
soldiers.
The author highlights that the Azerbaijani side has significantly
increased its military spending over the recent years, and this trend
has not abated, despite the global decline of oil prices. Israel
has been one of Azerbaijan's strongest defense partners for several
years now, and as a result of this relationship, the Armed Forces of
Azerbaijan have acquired Israeli drones.
In its turn, Armenian military is also spending as if it predicts
a war. Armenia and Russia carefully preserve the uncertainty about
the acquisition of Iskanders, which could provide a way for Armenia
to hit the Azerbaijani Air Force on the ground in Azerbaijan. Since
2012, Armenia has also invested heavily in Russian-supplied upgrades
for its large numbers of existing armor and artillery and in
domestically-produced drone systems.
The author also points to the strategic and very defensible terrain
of Armenia. "Armenian forces already control all of Karabakh's main
roads, population centers and the sources of water and electricity. To
reach them, Azeri forces would have to cross steep, rugged mountains
that are heavily fortified by well-equipped local Armenian forces. To
the north, the Armenian zone of Karabakh is accessible only via the
treacherous Omar Pass over the Murovdag mountain range. Azeri forces
entering Karabakh from the east would have to pass through a hole in
the mountains that is only about 2.5 kilometer squares wide at the
town of Askeran in order to reach Karabakh's main city of Stepanakert.
Getting past these geographic barriers will not be easy. Karabakh's
water and electricity originate from the hydroelectric dam at
the Sarsang Reservoir, and the main road to Armenia proper passes
through the Lachin corridor, both of which are even farther and
more inaccessible for any hypothetical Azeri operation in Karabakh,"
the article reads.
The Armenian side already controls the territory it wants, meanwhile,
Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev "is putting out a steady stream
of aggressive rhetoric, insulting Armenia" and promising that his
country will recapture Nagorno Karabakh. The frontline in Karabakh
is only becoming more dangerous, the author concludes.
Related:
Serzh Sargsyan: One cannot eliminate the consequences of this conflict
without addressing its causes
Hillary Clinton: US committed to work through Minsk Group to resolve
NK conflict
http://www.panorama.am/en/politics/2015/04/10/azerbaijan-armenia-nkr/