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Turkey Starts Decade-Plus EU Journey, With No Entry Guarantee

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  • Turkey Starts Decade-Plus EU Journey, With No Entry Guarantee

    TURKEY STARTS DECADE-PLUS EU JOURNEY, WITH NO ENTRY GUARANTEE

    Bloomberg
    Oct 4 2005

    Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Turkey, clutching an 11th-hour European Union
    accord to start entry talks, faces growing opposition as it embarks
    on a journey to membership that could last 15 years and still end
    in failure.

    Last-minute objections by Austria and Cyprus almost derailed the start
    of the talks yesterday, highlighting deeper divisions over admitting
    a Muslim country of 72 million people with incomes that are a fourth
    of the EU average.

    "There seems to be no obvious political will on the part of the EU
    to embrace Turkey at this stage," said Cem Duna, a former Turkish
    ambassador to the EU who helped negotiate a 1995 free- trade agreement
    with the bloc. "The talks are going to be very tough and nations will
    have countless chances to veto."

    Turkey is banking on the EU entry process to attract record foreign
    investment in the $300 billion economy. Optimism about membership
    has pushed stocks to a five-year high and brought the government's
    borrowing costs down to 15 percent from more than 70 percent four
    years ago.

    Getting the talks off the ground took a month of brinksmanship, with
    veto threats by Cyprus and Austria and counter-threats by Turkey,
    culminating in a 30-hour emergency negotiating session in Luxembourg.

    "Turkey is determined to carry on with reforms," Foreign Minister
    Abdullah Gul told a Luxembourg news conference early today after the
    official start of the talks. "Some of the concerns which exist in
    European public opinion will, I think, change in 10 years."

    Enlargement Fatigue

    The EU is groping for answers on how, when and where to enlarge
    again after bringing in 10 mostly eastern European countries last
    year, expanding its population to 450 million. Dissatisfaction with
    enlargement, and with the prospect of Turkey joining, contributed
    to the rejection of the planned EU constitution in France and the
    Netherlands this year.

    "At the rate Turkey is going it's going to take at least one generation
    for it to join the EU," said Jean-Dominique Butikofer, who manages
    the equivalent of $400 million of emerging market debt at Julius Baer
    Asset Management in Zurich.

    Opponents have pointed to polls showing only one-third of Europeans
    support Turkey's application. Unemployment in the EU is at 8.6 percent,
    increasing concerns that Turkish workers may head to the West and force
    more Europeans out of a job. Turkey's jobless rate is 9.1 percent.

    `I'm Hostile'

    "I'm hostile to Turkey's membership," Marielle de Sarnez, a French
    member of the European Parliament, said in an interview yesterday.

    "We must continue to build a political Europe," and letting Turkey
    in would lead to the "dilution" of the bloc.

    Loudspeakers across Turkey announce the call to prayer five times a
    day and the government supplies low-income families with free meals
    during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. Istanbul's Grand Bazaar, a
    warren of covered, interlocking shopping alleys, has a Middle Eastern
    flair. The teeming city on the Bosporus, with about 9 million people,
    is larger than 12 EU countries.

    Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is urging Europe to prove it's
    not a "Christian club" by accepting Turkey.

    Turkey has made some of the changes demanded by the EU, including
    abolishing the death penalty and expanding rights for 12 million
    Turkish Kurds, the nation's largest ethnic minority originating from
    a region bordering Iraq.

    General Electric Co., BNP Paribas and Royal Dutch Shell Plc this year
    agreed to buy stakes in Turkish companies on expectation that the EU
    embrace will boost profits.

    European Values

    The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, says the government
    must now strengthen democracy, including religious freedoms for Greek
    Orthodox Christians in Istanbul, and meet the bloc's standards in 35
    areas including competition, labor and the environment.

    "The result of these negotiations is absolutely not guaranteed,"
    French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said yesterday. "If
    it's not accession, it'll be another strong link."

    Erdogan, who prays five times a day even during foreign trips, plans
    to cut the corporate tax rate from 30 percent to attract investment
    and reduce unemployment. Nineteen million people in Turkey live in
    poverty, according to government data.

    By 2025, Turkey would swallow up EU farm and regional subsidies equal
    to about 0.17 percent of annual European economic output, or about
    $20 billion in today's terms, the commission said last October.

    Armenian Massacre

    "Countries like France and Germany just aren't ready for any further
    expansion of the EU from an economic point of view," said Daniel Gros,
    director of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels.

    "The negotiations with Turkey basically have to be forgotten about
    for the next five or six years."

    Other demands include Turkey's recognition of the republic of Cyprus,
    the Mediterranean island nation that joined the EU last year. The
    European Parliament last week told Turkey to lift a ban on Cypriot
    planes and ships by next year or risk a halt to the EU process.

    Turkey should also acknowledge that Ottoman Turks carried out a
    massacre of Armenians in the last century before it becomes a member,
    the EU legislature said.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Bentley in Ankara at
    [email protected].

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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