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Speak Up, For The Neighbors' Sake; Russia II

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  • Speak Up, For The Neighbors' Sake; Russia II

    SPEAK UP, FOR THE NEIGHBORS' SAKE; RUSSIA II
    by Mark Brzezinski

    The International Herald Tribune
    March 13, 2006 Monday

    WASHINGTON

    Last summer, the Council of Europe issued a report urging Russia to
    cease treating "neighboring and other countries in the region as zones
    of special influence." The report urged Russia to "constructively
    contribute to resolution of open issues and cease with activities"
    that "undermine the countries' sovereignty and territorial integrity."

    President George W. Bush should give President Vladimir Putin the
    message that Russia's own integration into the world, a highly
    desirable objective, is jeopardized if at the same time the Kremlin
    has a policy of undercutting democratic development along its borders.

    It's unlikely that there's a master plan guiding Russia's actions
    toward her neighbors. Instead, Russia's actions are driven variably
    by ambition, nostalgia, confusion, misinterpretation, irritation
    and resentment.

    And Russia's policy toward the former Soviet republics is manifested
    in different ways and produces different results. Baltic leaders and
    Ukraine claim that Russia uses energy to assert leverage, by having
    Russian concerns acquire key elements of their energy sectors.

    President Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine has been clear about the goal
    of Ukraine's membership in the European Union. But he realizes the
    vital importance of not estranging Russia and has taken steps to
    develop dialogue with the Kremlin, even after Russia shut off gas
    supplies on Jan. 1. By contrast, Belarus remains a dependency where
    democracy demonstrations in the lead-up to the March 19 presidential
    election have been brutally crushed.

    In the Caucasus and Moldova, Russia has tried to readjust the
    orientation of her neighbors, but with little success. In 2002, Russia
    told Georgia to end its political and security relationship with
    NATO, and urged Georgia to accept Russian bases for the long-term. In
    Central Asia, dictators who previously resisted closer cooperation
    with Moscow have been encouraged by the Kremlin to be heavy-handed
    with any signs of religious revival. Only Russia and China endorsed
    the Uzbekistan government's killing of hundreds of demonstrators in
    Andijon last summer.

    There are signs that Russia is adjusting to new realities. Russia
    accommodated itself to Georgian central control over Adzharia, and
    Russian and Georgian authorities agreed to a plan for the withdrawal
    of Russian troops from Georgia. But Russian troops may be redeployed
    to Armenia, which would alarm Azerbaijan.

    It's in Russia's interest, and in America's, for there to be greater
    trust and cooperation between Russia and her neighbors. The United
    States should strive to help Russia to understand that Washington is
    not trying to transform the region into a zone of American control
    through "color revolutions" and that instead, what's been happening
    there is part of a process Europe has been going through for more
    than 50 years.

    At the same time, Russia's neighbors need reassurance that the United
    States is committed to their independence, integrity and stability.

    The lack of Western reaction to Russian meddling made some new
    democracies worry that their sovereignty is entirely subordinate to
    other key U.S. interests with Russia.

    In the near-term, the Belarus presidential election on March 19
    provides an important test. Belarus is one of the most repressive
    former Soviet republics. Last week, the police beat and detained
    Alexander Kozulin, an opposition presidential candidate. Symbolizing
    solidarity with the opposition, Bush met recently with the widows of
    two Belarussian leaders who were murdered by Alexander Lukashenko's
    government. But as Western governments develop a strategy in the
    event that international monitors report electoral fraud, it must be
    remembered that Lukashenko's major financial and political sponsor
    is Putin.

    In the long term, the West might consider a more dynamic vision of
    its relationship with a democratic Russia. As the Russia task force
    of the Council on Foreign Relations recommends: "Western leaders
    should also diversify their political contacts within Russia. It's
    not enough to meet with representatives of 'civil society.' Open and
    routine contact with opposition political figures and organizations
    carry a more potent message." Doing so would give credibility and
    consistency to Bush's freedom agenda.

    ***

    Mark Brzezinski, a Washington attorney, was director of Russian and
    Eurasian affairs on the National Security Council in the Clinton
    administration.

    [Not to be reproduced without the permission of the author.]
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