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  • Islam's Uncertain Future

    ISLAM'S UNCERTAIN FUTURE

    Christianity Today
    March 30 2006

    Paul Marshall, a senior fellow at Freedom House's Center for Religious
    Freedom, is also the editor of Radical Islam's Rules: The Worldwide
    Spread of Extreme Shari'a Law (Rowman & Littlefield Publishers,
    2005). Stan Guthrie, a Christianity Today senior associate editor
    and author of Missions in the Third Millennium: 21 Key Trends for
    the 21st Century, interviewed Marshall.

    You distinguish between two kinds of Shari'ah, or Islamic law, as
    understood and implemented by Muslims worldwide. What are they?

    In the last three years, I've been to various parts of the Muslim
    world talking to people about Shari'ah. I use the term extreme
    Shari'ah for the sorts of things that happen in Saudi Arabia, Iran, or
    Pakistan-people getting accused of blasphemy or stoned for adultery,
    and so on. But most Muslims use the term in a very broad sense. In
    Indonesia, if you ask people, "Do you think women should be stoned
    to death for adultery?" more than 80 percent of the population says
    no. If you ask, "Is it okay for Indonesia to have a woman leader?" more
    than 90 percent of the population says yes, that's fine. So they have
    something very different in mind from the Taliban.

    You get similar results right now in Iraq. [When asked,] "Do you
    think Iraq should be governed by Islamic law?" about 80 percent
    say yes. If you ask, "Do you think there should be legal equality
    between men and women?" about 80 percent say yes. For many Muslims,
    the term Shari'ah has a very broad sense that the country should be
    governed in a way that God wants.

    So most Muslims would not agree that, say, the punishment for theft
    should be amputation of one's hand?

    Correct. They see that as something that used to be done, but not
    really fitting for the sorts of societies we live in now, that it's
    not the core of what Islam is about.

    Does this attitude point to modernizing tendencies in Islam?

    There are modernizing tendencies, but [a larger factor is that] the
    vast majority of Muslims in the world live in Africa and Asia, not
    in the Middle East. Their views on Islam are not very precise. They
    don't read the Qur'an; they can't read it.

    Does that present an opportunity for extreme Islamists to clarify
    the Qur'an for them in a way that would be dangerous for heretics
    and adulterers?

    Very much so. In countries such as Bangladesh or Indonesia, Islam
    historically has been very broad and moderate in outlook. But radical
    Islamic preachers, especially from the Gulf, especially funded by Saudi
    Arabia, are coming in. They've built mosques. They're providing people,
    imams, scholarships. And so you're getting an increasing radicalization
    in these populations that beforehand were more or less theologically
    illiterate. People are telling them, "If you want to be a true Muslim,
    a good Muslim, a proper Muslim, this is what you should do." This
    means, essentially, that they should start imitating Saudis.

    How did extreme Shari'ah spread across the world?

    In 1975, only one major country practiced these types of laws: Saudi
    Arabia. Beginning in 1979, you had the overthrow in Iran of the Shah
    by Ayatollah Khomeini, and Iran began to institute similar laws.

    There are differences: Iran is Shiite; Saudi Arabia is Sunni. But in
    terms of the hudud laws, the criminal laws, which involve amputation,
    crucifixion, stoning, and so on, they're very similar in outlook. In
    both cases, the status of women is very, very poor. The status of
    minorities is very, very poor.

    Within Pakistan, the growth of such laws has been gradual. Through the
    1980s, [we've seen] the increased influence of Shari'ah law, especially
    under General [Muhammad] Zia-ul-Haq, and the introduction of blasphemy
    laws for anybody insulting God, the Qur'an, or the Prophet Muhammad.

    Beginning in 1983 in Sudan, the National Islamic Front, an offshoot
    of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, came into power. It instituted an
    extremely draconian form of Shari'ah. It executed people who opposed
    these laws on the grounds that opposing its type of Shari'ah was itself
    against Shari'ah. That was one of the factors that precipitated the
    civil war between the largely Arab, Muslim northern Sudan and the
    largely black, African Christian south. In Chechnya, southern Russia,
    rebels have been trying to imitate the Sudanese legal code.

    How did it come to Nigeria?

    Beginning in 1995, the state of Zamfara began to institute these types
    of laws. Of 36 states in the country, 12 of them now have these types
    of laws on the books. Some are much more severe than others.

    But essentially this has happened right across the northern swath
    of Nigeria, and there's increased pressure in the central areas
    of Nigeria.

    In nearly all of these countries [Iran, Pakistan, Sudan, and Nigeria],
    some form of Islamic law had been operating already . laws governing
    marriage, divorce, inheritance, and family law. But when I talk
    about the spread of Shari'ah, I mean that they changed the criminal
    code. They changed the law of evidence within the courts so that
    evidence from men and women was given different weight. They segregated
    public transportation systems so that unmarried men and women could
    not travel together, and so on. It's a quantum leap in the expression
    of Islam.

    Has this extreme form of Islam spread elsewhere?

    No other countries have adopted it wholesale. In fact, Malaysia has
    resisted these types of Shari'ah. In the last ten years, the two
    northern states tried to institute these laws. Because Malaysia is
    a federation, the federal government has the power to strike down
    these laws, and it has. But still, people in those two states have
    been arrested for blasphemy. Even though [such treatment] is strictly
    illegal, [local] governments can usually find a way to put someone
    in prison. Similarly, in Indonesia, there has been strong resistance
    at the national level to these types of laws. But at a town level or
    a county level, more extreme groups are starting to implement the laws.

    Indonesia is a big, sprawling country, and in lots of pockets around
    the country, people carry out the laws in their own way. You get
    vigilantes operating. In parts of western Java, someone driving a
    car on a Friday afternoon, Muslim or Christian, may get [his or her]
    car stoned.

    You'll also find this going on in Bangladesh. It's not the government
    doing this, but if you're in poor, remote areas, you'll often find
    yourself subject to these laws.

    What has been the impetus to spread extreme Shari'ah over the last
    30 years?

    In many of these countries, economically they have not been doing
    well. There's also extremely widespread corruption. Islamist parties,
    when they have campaigned, have spoken of poverty. They've also
    pointed out, correctly, the tremendous corruption. They've said,
    "The reason for our poverty, the reason our country is not doing well,
    is that we are not good Muslims. If we were truly faithful, if we were
    strict Muslims, we would do much better." They also say, "We're very
    committed Muslims. We will not be corrupt." And a lot of the support
    for more extreme forms of Islam comes from people who think, While they
    may be much too strict for me, at least they're going to be honest. I
    won't have to pay a bribe for every single thing I need in life.

    Another reason is, again, the export of Muslim missionaries and
    literature from Saudi Arabia and Iran.

    What percentage of the Muslim world supports extreme Shari'ah?

    The percentages are very hard to come by. In Indonesia, people who
    support more radical Islamist parties make up about 13 percent or
    14 percent of the population. Back in 1983, the National Islamic
    Front received about 12 percent of the vote in Sudan. In Pakistan,
    the numbers are similar. In Nigeria, support has been much higher,
    but mainly, I think, because of anti-corruption motivations. You're
    probably looking worldwide at 10 percent to 15 percent of the
    population.

    Would that include support for Al Qaeda?

    Not necessarily. Certainly, some of those people would. Perhaps
    10 percent or 15 percent-that's a broad estimate, a guess-want to
    institute the type of society that Al Qaeda wants. Think of the
    Taliban. Think of Iran. Think of Saudi Arabia. Many of them push for
    that peacefully. The 10 percent or 15 percent are people who share
    the goal, but not the means. They may applaud Al Qaeda. If you ask
    them if they like [Osama] bin Laden, very often the answer is yes.

    He's widely admired. If you say, "Do you support the killing of
    prisoners by Zarqawi in Iraq?" they'll say no. And they might add
    there's no evidence that Al Qaeda does those things. So there's broad
    sympathy. The number who would actively engage in and give money to
    such movements would be a couple of percent.

    What is the ultimate goal of the Islamists?

    There are four points. One is to unite Muslims, who are fragmented
    into different countries and faiths, as one political unit. Two is
    that they will be governed by a caliph-one political and religious
    ruler of the united Muslim world. Three, the area controlled by
    Muslims will be ruled by forms of extreme Shari'ah law. A fourth
    point, which certainly the terrorists share with some others, is that
    the reunited Muslim political grouping would organize to wage war,
    jihad, against the rest of the world to continue the expansion of
    Islam until it has conquered the whole world.

    But while all would like to export it, not all believe in trying to
    spread it by war. For the moment, they just want to control their own
    area, the places where they live, and try to make sure it's the form
    of Islam they feel is right.

    Is Islam a religion of peace?

    Islam was often warlike in its first centuries. Islamic rule was
    spread by military conquests, so it's certainly not true that Islam
    is a religion of peace in the same way that Quakers or the Amish is
    a religion of peace. Conflict and war go back a long way in Islamic
    history. But I wouldn't say that war is a necessary feature of Islam,
    that whenever you have Islam, you're going to have war. Islam has
    often been a warlike religion. That does not mean it has to be a
    warlike religion now.

    Is militant Islam the real Islam?

    I speak of existing Islam. That is, what is Islam like now, what are
    Muslims like now? I'm not in a position to say what authentic Islam
    is. I will say that if you go through the Bible, you will also find
    the death penalty for idolatry. You'll find draconian punishments
    for adultery. You will find war in the name of God. I know of almost
    no Christians, even the most conservative, who believe that it's
    necessary to do those things in order to be a true Christian. We need
    to be careful not to have a double standard. There are certain things
    within Christianity, within Judaism, that were for a particular time.

    We need to allow Muslims to say the same thing.

    Is extremist Islam growing in Europe and North America?

    Certainly in Europe. One of the frightening things about Europe is
    that the second and third generation immigrants are much more radical
    than their parents. You're not getting assimilation; you're getting
    the opposite. In places such as England, the first generation of
    immigrants from Pakistan 30 or 40 years ago came in, got menial jobs,
    opened shops, and were sort of marginalized but relatively peaceful.

    They wanted to make a success of life. The radicals are their children
    and in some cases even their grandchildren. As time goes on in Europe,
    the Muslim populations are becoming more radical, and, of course,
    the total numbers of Muslims are increasing. This is a frightening
    phenomenon for Europeans.

    In the United States, the sociology of the Muslim population is very,
    very different. In Europe, many Muslim immigrants are low income,
    very poor, brought in to do menial jobs. In some ways within the
    society, they fill the slot that illegal immigrants fill in the
    United States. But in the U.S., our Muslim population tends to be
    highly educated. I think more than 60 percent have degrees, and,
    in general, they do not live in separate neighborhoods. Whether
    radicalism is growing, I don't know. There are indications it is
    among African Americans and in prison populations.

    Are Islam and democracy compatible?

    Yes, they are. Indonesia and Turkey are among the largest Muslim
    populations in the world. They've got great problems. Often their
    elections have not been that clean. But they are functioning
    democracies. Mali in Africa is a very poor country, 99 percent
    Muslim. It's very free and has free and fair elections. Islam and
    democracy, as a practical matter, do coexist in the world. The big
    problem tends to be in the Arab world. Democracies are very hard to
    come by [there].

    How does extreme Shari'ah affect Christians when Islamists gain
    control? Almost immediately, there are restrictions on the building
    or repair of churches or the expansion of Christianity. You must
    stay where you are; you must stay in a subordinate position. Second,
    churches built without permits get destroyed. Third, Christians
    are often accused of blasphemy against Islam or of criticizing
    Islam. The pressure becomes very bad indeed. You get a community
    that is isolated and marginalized. Preaching the gospel to a Muslim
    is very strongly forbidden. That can get you killed. Or, if a Muslim
    decides to convert to Christianity or, indeed, to any other religion,
    there's a good chance that he or she will be killed as an apostate.

    How should Christians under such pressure respond?

    It will depend on the situation. If you're in a situation of severe
    threat, such as in Iran or Afghanistan, you keep your head down and
    simply manage the best you can. In situations where there are greater
    possibilities for change, such as Pakistan or Egypt, the Christian
    community becomes more outspoken. In Nigeria, there has been violent
    resistance by Christian bodies. Much of the violence consists of
    attacks by Muslims on Christians, but there are attacks the other
    way around as well. Then you have Sudan, in which-partly because of
    Shari'ah-the Christians and others have waged war to resist control by
    radical Islam. You see quite a range of options going on, and which
    one is right will very much depend on the circumstances. You have to
    make a judgment on what is possible.

    So is taking up arms sometimes justifiable for Christians in your view?

    Oh, yes, very much so. The Armenians have a long history of doing that,
    also the Ethiopians. These are areas where Christians still control
    territories and have often fought to maintain them. The defense through
    arms of a community and territory may well be a legitimate option,
    and that was the case in southern Sudan. The government was, in fact,
    waging a genocidal war, and the result could very likely have been
    the extermination of the Christian community.

    That's happened in many other places, such as Central Asia. I think
    on just-war grounds that can certainly be defended.

    What should Western Christians do?

    Develop strong relations with the Christian communities in those
    areas and find out what they need. Also, cultivate relations with
    Muslims in those countries and elsewhere to raise these questions.

    But remember that it's much more important for Muslims and Christians
    to talk locally. Muslims in the Middle East should talk to Christians
    in the Middle East.

    As you look at the spread of extreme Shari'ah law and some of the
    tensions within Islam, are you hopeful or pessimistic?

    If we're talking about the next few decades, I'm pessimistic. The
    influence of extreme forms of Islam and Shari'ah appear to be
    growing. Radical sentiment as a whole seems to be on the increase in
    the Muslim world. It's still a minority, but the people pushing for
    it are committed, organized, well funded, and have clear goals. The
    people who are opposed to them are often not well funded, organized,
    or committed, and they don't have a clear goal. When you have small,
    committed groups and a fairly amorphous majority group, the small,
    committed groups can make headway. I see that happening around the
    world. Regarding the struggle against radical Islam, to the degree that
    it's a war of ideas, it's a war that so far the radicals are winning.
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