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  • Predicting earthquakes from space

    Predicting earthquakes from space

    RIA Novosti, Russia
    March 31 2006

    16:30 | 31/ 03/ 2006

    MOSCOW. (Yury Zaitsev for RIA Novosti.) - A Russian strategic
    nuclear-powered submarine is poised to launch an innovative, compact,
    80-kg spacecraft from the Barents Sea in the second quarter of
    this year.

    The Compass 2 satellite is expected to help make the first step in
    the practical forecasting of earthquakes from space.

    The move comes as a result of extensive research into specific
    phenomena in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere, often observed
    prior to earthquakes, by the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism,
    Ionosphere and Radio Waves Propagation (IZMIRAN) of the Russian
    Academy of Sciences.

    The first observations of ionosphere anomalies manifested days before
    major earthquakes date back to the 1960s. At first, treated no more
    seriously than UFOs, palm reading and astrology, the findings elbowed
    their way into the scientific domain in 1979 as the institute launched
    its Interkosmos 19 satellite. A recording analyzed after one major
    earthquake showed a prolonged area (narrow in latitude and very broad
    in longitude) of abnormal, low-frequency noise centered exactly above
    the earthquake's epicenter several hours before the first shock was
    felt. Officially registered as a scientific discovery, the phenomenon
    was later confirmed by findings from other satellites.

    This area of research received a powerful push in December 1988 in
    the wake of a devastating earthquake in Armenia. A pool of Soviet
    scientific institutions developed a forecasting system that was to
    be deployed first onboard the Mir orbiter and then across the orbit
    within a network of unmanned spacecraft. After the Mir, Salyut 6,
    and Salyut 7 completed the early stages of the plan, the program
    was effectively buried with the demise of the Soviet Union, but went
    forward at the end of the turbulent 1990s.

    While other precursors of major earthquakes - the concentration of
    radon, an inert gas, near the epicenter; the concentration of electrons
    in the ionosphere above the epicenter; and the content of crust-emitted
    metal-rich aerosols in the air, leading to an abnormally strong
    electric field there - had been piling up for a long time, they were
    always obtained as by-products of other research programs. Sufficient
    statistical data array required a separate specialized satellite.

    In 2001, the institute took the lead in the effort, committing to make
    a satellite and inviting the Makeyev State Missile Center (Miass,
    Urals) to convert the Shtil (SS-N-23 Skiff) military missile into a
    launch vehicle for the project. Later, however, Makeyev also had to
    develop the satellite under the effort codenamed Vulkan (Volcano)
    in the Russian Space Agency's 2001-2005 Federal Space Program.

    The first international Complex Orbital Magneto-Plasma Autonomous
    Small Satellite, or Compass, was orbited in December 2001 as a
    by-load together with the Meteor 3M, a Russian weather satellite,
    to provide insight into possible links between Earth's crust and
    magnetosphere behavior. This first field test of an earthquake forecast
    assessment system largely failed because, while early findings were
    very promising, the equipment developed jointly by Russia, Hungary,
    Greece, Ukraine and Poland soon ceased to operate.

    Certain progress was made, however, as the data of Compass's launch
    mate, Meteor 3M, were analyzed by special methods to obtain earthquake
    precursors. On aggregate, 44 of 47 events registered between October
    2002 and May 2003 agreed with data retrieved from land-based seismic
    records. The generally positive result has led to the upcoming Compass
    2 launch and is likely to lead to a follow-up Compass 3 effort. The
    latter satellite is to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2006 to
    test more modern and efficient monitoring systems.

    The International Space Station has also been long helping collect
    ionosphere information. Thanks to the ISS's low orbit, some research
    programs crucial for the future Vulkan disaster forecasting system
    have been conducted here as part of a broader effort codenamed Uragan
    (Hurricane).

    On the ground, the Vulkan will include a network of geophysical
    laboratories, a downlink station and an analysis center. The ground
    facilities lack the scope and access to recordable events, which
    explains the need for an orbital component to yield a global survey
    of seismic activity with accurately timed warnings (one to five
    days between a precursor and a possible earthquake). All in all,
    two groups of small satellites are to be deployed at 400-500- and
    900-1,000-km solar synchronous orbits.

    When fully operational, the Vulkan's ground and spaceborne components
    will collect, process and analyze the disaster precursor data, thus
    contributing to medium-, long- and short-term plans of emergency
    management services in Russia and internationally.

    Yury Zaitsev is an expert with the Space Research Institute at the
    Russian Academy of Sciences.
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