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  • Big Insinuations For Little Armenia

    Big Insinuations For Little Armenia

    Russia, Saint-Petersburg
    Rosbalt, 31/05/2004, 11:05

    It has been repeatedly hinted to Armenia this past month that Yerevan can
    better prioritize its foreign policy. Behind the noise and dust raised by
    the government and the opposition, Washington is systematically pursuing the
    entrenchment of its position in the region.

    The opinion of American experts

    Washington regularly reminds Yerevan that without its help, Armenia cannot
    stand on its own feet and will remain a banana republic in the backwaters of
    civilization. And what that help means is not difficult to understand. Thus,
    the analytical center STRATFOR, which some regard as a CIA mouthpiece,
    recently released a report entitled 'The Battle for the Former USSR: Wooing
    Armenia.' The experts at STRATFOR think that the United States needs Armenia
    in order to become a key player in the region, and that goal is being
    hindered by Russia and Iran, with which Yerevan has overly good relations.

    Therefore, the report continues, Washington needs to make a policy decision:
    'The United States must do all it can to squeeze Armenia into a corner, and
    then a reorientation of Armenian priorities in the US's favor will be the
    only alternative.' Moreover, a partnership with Washington will be the
    panacea for the region's greatest ill - the conflict in Karabakh. And the
    prescription to the problem in this case has more than one application.
    'Armenia has seized the territory of neighboring Azerbaijan, and has made
    clear that it has no intention of leaving. But it is only possible to
    triumph over a partner of the United States if you yourself become a partner
    of the United States,' SRATFOR openly recommends to Yerevan.

    In order that the decision not be made in Armenia, according to the center's
    experts, its fate has already been decided. 'Nevertheless, the task of
    conquering Armenia is doable, and will in the long term be achieved by the
    US thanks to the active and assiduous work of diplomatic agencies. All
    diplomatic efforts dedicated to the conquest of Armenia must be very
    delicate and must take several years.' True, the center's experts recognize
    that the activities of Russia and Iran might prove a serious hindrance, and
    could completely derail US plans.

    Practically in tandem, the CIA, together with non-governmental centers, has
    released a report entitled 'Global Trends 2015.' Until 2015, the report
    reads, Armenia will continue to be isolated and dependent on Russia and
    Iran, and therefore will continue to be a regional wild card. According to
    CIA predictions, the region will continue to be unstable as the result of
    unresolved conflicts.

    Karabakh damper

    Those unresolved conflicts, and the Karabakh conflict in particular,
    continue not only to poison relations between Yerevan and Baku, but hang
    like the Sword of Damocles over the heads of every Armenian president. It
    should be remembered that Levon Ter-Petrosian was obliged to leave his post
    early when he tried to reach a compromise on the conflict in Karabakh. At
    the time, he left to the unanimous applause of Armenian society. Karabakh is
    an issue which has the ability to unite Armenians of all political stripes.

    Now, Robert Kocharian appears to be in the same position. What actually
    threatens Kocharian now is not the opposition, which wants to depose him,
    but pressure from Washington to resolve the Karabakh conflict and reach an
    unfavorable compromise. At STRATFOR, that is an openly advocated position:
    'Washington's support for Azerbaijan's position regarding the resolution of
    the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could drive Armenia into a corner, and then
    the reorientation of Armenian priorities in the US's favor would become the
    only alternative.' It appears as if the situation could take that turn - to
    drive Armenia into a corner and force it to distance itself from Russia and
    Iran. For any Armenian president, that option would appear far easier than
    to compromise on the issue of Karabakh.

    Washington is systematically increasing its pressure on Yerevan, gradually
    broaching the subject of Karabakh. In particular, the State Department
    recently published a particularly harsh addendum to its annual human rights
    report: 'President Robert Kocharian was defeated in 2003 in a disputed
    election, which was marred by serious violations and did not meet
    international standards.' In the February version of the report, all that
    was said was that violations had occurred. Such declarations look like
    unambiguous threats.

    At the same time, George Bush has proposed a new ambassador to Armenia to
    replace John Ordway. He has proposed John Marshall Evans, the head of the
    Russian section at the State Department. The train of thought is hard to
    miss. In addition, the new American representative to the OSCE group on the
    Karabakh conflict has been named as Steven Mann, who in his time opened the
    first diplomatic mission to an independent Armenia, and it is said just as
    successfully forced the door open to the new republic's government.
    Moreover, Steven Mann, who is considered to be one of the founding fathers
    of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, has remained a senior adviser on energy issues
    in the Caspian region.

    The Pentagon's hand?

    Meanwhile, according to knowledgeable observers, the issue of Karabakh has
    recently been handed over from the State Department to the Pentagon.
    According to a source in the Armenian government, the Karabakh question now
    has the potential to generate serious and unpredictable complications as the
    result of the Pentagon's decisive involvement in the process, which
    diplomats had previously managed to quiet.

    What the American military has managed to initiate in the South Caucasus is
    difficult to miss. The Boston Globe recently published an article which
    stated that the United States is intent on implementing serious military
    programs in the South Caucasus, continuing a 'careful application of soft
    power.' In particular, according to the Boston Globe, a recent conference in
    the German city of Garmisch-Partenkirchen of NATO members was dedicated to
    the coordination of efforts regarding the Caucasus, which included the
    participation of Georgia and Armenia.

    The results are already before us. In particular, the Armenian army is
    modernizing its most vulnerable sector - communications - with the help of
    the United States. Moreover, the Defense Department was obliged at the end
    of April to deny reports that Armenia and the US had signed an agreement on
    the use of Armenian airfields by the US Air Force. The source of the report
    was the very same STRATFOR following a visit to Armenia by US Commander for
    Europe, Charles Wald. 'The true aim of the agreement was the provision of
    aid in the material-technical sphere at the request of the other country,
    taking into account the interests of one's own country,' the Defense
    Department hastily explained. But as it is said, there is no smoke without
    fire.

    Incidentally, Armenia is not only being pressured, it is being given
    incentives. In particular, Armenia was recently included on the list of 16
    countries which the United States intends to help with its program
    'Millennium Challenges.' It is anticipated that the Armenian government will
    receive in the next two years more than USD 300 million, which will not be
    standard American aid, most of which goes to finance American experts, but
    rather direct investments in the country's budget. True, in Washington they
    are parsing their words - aid will only be forthcoming if the Armenian
    government behaves. And the Armenian government needs that aid urgently, in
    order to reduce social tensions in the country and not allow an explosion
    being prepared by the opposition to occur. Samvel Martirosian, Rosbalt,
    Yerevan.

    Translated by Alex Anderson
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