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Aliyev In Washington - Part 2

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  • Aliyev In Washington - Part 2

    ALIYEV IN WASHINGTON (PART 2)
    By Vladimir Socor

    Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
    May 3 2006

    Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's April 25-28 visit to Washington
    -- his first as chief of state since 2003 -- was a long overdue event
    for the president of a country allied to the United States and key
    to energy supplies to the West.

    On the White House lawn following their 45-minute meeting, U.S.
    President George W. Bush twice named Azerbaijan and its president as
    "our ally." Citing Azerbaijan's contributions to U.S.-led and NATO
    operations in Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan and its role in Caspian
    energy deliveries, Bush also invoked a "need for the world to see a
    modern Muslim country ... that understands that democracy is the wave
    of the future." Aliyev in turn expressed confidence in the "strength
    of our strategic partnership" and his country's "high level of trust
    in the United States." With U.S.-supported multinational energy
    projects now coming on stream in Azerbaijan, the country posted a
    world-record GDP growth of 26% in 2005 and is set to at least match
    that rate this year.

    In an extensive briefing for the Council on Foreign Relations in New
    York and an address to the conference of the U.S.-Azerbaijan Chamber
    of Commerce in Washington, Aliyev focused on three main issues for his
    country: energy transit (see EDM, May 1), the Karabakh conflict, and --
    responding to persistent questions -- Azerbaijan's position regarding
    possible U.S. strikes against Iran's suspected nuclear installations.

    Defining the Karabakh conflict as "the major problem facing
    Azerbaijan," Aliyev called for its resolution based on international
    law and territorial integrity as non-negotiable principles. A
    stage-by-stage resolution process would ultimately permit the opening
    of transport communications and enable Armenia to join regional
    development projects. Azerbaijan cannot accept Armenia into such
    projects as long as Armenian forces occupy Azerbaijan's territory.

    Meanwhile, Section 907 of the U.S. Freedom Support Act adopted by
    Congress in the context of the Armenia-Azerbaijan war in 1992 bars
    direct assistance to Azerbaijan from the U.S. government. Section
    907 hits the wrong target, Azerbaijan, ignoring the seizure and
    ethnic cleansing of part of its territory by Armenian forces. The
    Bush administration obtains annual congressional waivers of this
    section since 2002, in recognition of Azerbaijan's contributions to
    the anti-terror coalition; but the section remains in force. In his
    meetings with Congressional leaders, Aliyev urged repeal of this absurd
    piece of legislation. The response on Capitol Hill was sympathetic, but
    one of the key figures involved ruefully noted that to repeal section
    907 it would first be necessary to "repeal politics in Washington."

    Media speculation about Azerbaijan's possible role in U.S. operations
    against Iran provided a constant distraction during the visit.

    Presumably, Bush intended to ask for Azerbaijan's support in some
    form; and Aliyev's meetings with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
    and Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte fed further
    speculation. Aliyev, however, repeatedly and unambiguously stated
    that Azerbaijan would not become involved in any kind of military
    operations against Iran, but favored a diplomatic solution ensuring
    that Iran would not acquire nuclear weapons. He alluded to the risk
    for Azerbaijan should Baku end up in the crossfire: "For us, this is
    not a remote issue of the kind you see on TV and can switch off to
    another channel." Aliyev and his minister of foreign affairs, Elmar
    Mammadyarov, also cited Iran's role in providing transit and energy
    supplies to Azerbaijan's isolated exclave Nakhichevan; and referred
    as well to a bilateral treaty stipulating that neither country shall
    allow hostile actions from its territory against the other.

    Aliyev's demurral over Iran, however genuine, is not necessarily
    the final word on the matter. It still allows for deniable support
    to the United States in a crisis; and it certainly does not preclude
    intelligence support, which is believed to be ongoing. International
    economic sanctions against Iran, however, would confront Azerbaijan
    with the dilemma of either cooperating with the sanctions or risking
    Iranian retaliation that could at a minimum include a blockade of
    Nakhichevan.

    Concluding the presidents' meeting on the final day of the visit,
    Bush told the press that they merely "touched on" the issue of Iran
    and that both favored a diplomatic solution. Bush did not mention a
    possible military option on this occasion. For his part, Aliyev stated
    that his country will continue standing "shoulder to shoulder" with
    the United States in Iraq and is prepared to undertake "additional
    steps" if necessary in Afghanistan.

    (Federal News Service, April 26; ANS, ATV, Trend, Turan, April 25-29)
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