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Armenian Goverment Calm After Coalition Break-Up

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  • Armenian Goverment Calm After Coalition Break-Up

    ARMENIAN GOVERMENT CALM AFTER COALITION BREAK-UP
    Haroutiun Khachatrian for Eurasianet

    ISN, Switzerland
    May 23 2006

    The resignation of Armenian parliamentary speaker Artur Baghdasarian
    may signal his preparation for a higher office. But, even though he
    has left his post, the effect on the government appears to be minimal.

    Artur Baghdasarian formally vacated on 22 May his post as Armenia's
    parliamentary speaker, completing the withdrawal of his Orinats Yerkir
    Party from the country's governing coalition. Experts in Yerevan don't
    expect the shake-up to have much of an immediate impact on government
    policy, but suggest that the withdrawal could boost both Baghdasarian's
    and his party's political fortunes in upcoming elections.

    Addressing MPs after the acceptance of his letter of resignation,
    Baghdasarian sounded like a politician already on the campaign trail.

    Armenia is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in 2007 and a
    presidential poll the following year. "Social surveys show that 70
    per cent of Armenia's population is afraid [...] We will fight for a
    free society," Baghdasarian said, according to a report distributed
    by the A1-Plus web site. "When we said that the state must support
    young families, they [political rivals] said it was populism. It is
    not populism; it is the road to the development of our country."

    Baghdasarian also maintained it was in the country's best interest
    to pursue integration with Western economic and security structures,
    while attempting to cast Orinats Yerkir's departure from the governing
    coalition as the party leadership's choice. "Many good things have
    been accomplished, but many have been left out," Baghdasarian said,
    referring to his party's participation in the governing coalition. "Now
    we have decided to follow our own route."

    In addressing parliament, Baghdasarian studiously avoided criticism
    of President Robert Kocharian.

    Baghdasarian signaled on 12 May his intention to resign as speaker,
    a day after party leaders voted to pull out of the coalition. Although
    seeking to portray themselves as the initiators, many experts believe
    that Prime Minister Andranik Markarian pushed Orinats Yerkir, or the
    Country of Law party, out of the coalition for conduct damaging to the
    government's interests. In the weeks leading up to his resignation,
    the former speaker had been outspoken in his criticism of the
    government's continued reliance on a special political relationship
    with Russia. Starting with an 19 April interview published in the
    influential German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, he began to
    make forceful appeals for Armenia to turn away from Russia and toward
    the European Union and NATO.

    Markarian has maintained that Baghdasarian's actions constituted
    a violation of a 2003 power-sharing agreement, which stated that
    coalition members would attempt to reconcile policy differences in
    private before making them public. Baghdasarian evidently made no
    attempt to do so before the newspaper interview's appearance. Orinats
    Yerkir was created in 1998, thrusting Baghdasarian, who was at the
    time only 30 years old, into the center of Armenian political life.

    The party, with apparently strong backing from Kocharian and other
    top leaders, gained eight seats in the 1999 parliamentary vote,
    and went on to secure 20 in the 2003 elections.

    Over the near term, experts in Yerevan believe few, if any policy
    changes will occur, as the government retains a solid majority
    in parliament. On some issues, including the political future of
    Nagorno-Karabakh, Orinats Yerkir's position remains closely aligned
    with those of the governing coalition, which also includes Markarian's
    Republican Party and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation. Following
    the 2003 parliamentary elections, Orinats Yerkir had the second largest
    parliamentary faction, and it received three ministerial portfolios
    under the power-sharing agreement. Amid Baghdasarian's spat with other
    governing coalition leaders, the party experienced a considerable
    number of defections. The 10 lawmakers who left Orinats Yerkir's
    parliamentary faction have established themselves as independents,
    retaining a pro-government orientation.

    The party also lost three cabinet portfolios allocated to it under
    the 2003 power-sharing agreement.

    Though currently operating in a severely weakened state, many observers
    expect Orinats Yerkir to quickly recover, and, ultimately, benefit
    from leaving the coalition. Re-casting itself as an opposition force
    will likely increase the party's competitiveness in the 2007 vote,
    analysts say. "It will be beneficial to create an image of a party
    that suffered due to the actions of authorities," said a commentary
    published by the Iravunk opposition weekly.

    Iravunk went on to suggest Baghdasarian likely has his eye on
    the presidency, saying that he "may have good chances later to
    follow the path of Viktor Yushchenko and Mikheil Saakashvili, to
    make a turn from the 'internal opposition of the authorities' to an
    'orange opposition'". But Baghdasarian has steadfastly sought to avoid
    comparisons with the leaders of the recent revolutions in Ukraine and
    neighboring Georgia. At a 12May news conference, he did not seek to
    antagonize his erstwhile political allies, and insisted it was "too
    early" to discuss the possibility of his candidacy for the presidency.

    EurasiaNet (www.eurasianet.org) provides information and analysis
    about political, economic, environmental, and social developments in
    the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, as well as in Russia,
    the Middle East, and Southwest Asia. The website presents a variety
    of perspectives on contemporary developments, utilizing a network
    of correspondents based both in the West and in the region. The aim
    of EurasiaNet is to promote informed decision making among policy
    makers, as well as broadening interest in the region among the general
    public. EurasiaNet is operated by the Central Eurasia Project of the
    Open Society Institute.
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